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• Note On Graunt's “observations.”
• To the Right Honourable John Lord Roberts 1 , Baron of Truro , Lord Privy Seal , and One of His Majesties Most Honourable Privy Council.
• To the Honourable S R Robert Moray 1 , Knight, One of His Majestie's Privy Council For His Kingdom of Scotland , and President of the Royal Society of Philosophers Meeting At Gresham- Colledg , and to the Rest of That Honourable Society.
• The Preface.
• Natural and Political Observations, &c.
• Chap. I.: Of the Bills of Mortality, Their Beginning, and Progress. 1
• [chap. II.] 1: General Observations Upon the Casualties.
• Chap. III.: Of Particular Casualties.
• Chap. IV. of the Plague.
• Chap. V.: Other Observations Upon the Plague, and Casualties.
• Chap. VI.: Of the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of Seasons.
• Chap. VII.: Of the Difference Between Burials and Christenings.
• Chap. VIII.: Of the Difference Between the Numbers of Males and Females.
• Chap. IX.: Of the Growth of the City.
• Chap. X.: Of the Inequality of Parishes.
• Chap. XI.: Of the Number of Inhabitants.
• Chap. XII.: Of the Country-bills.
• The Conclusion.: an Appendix 1 .
• Appendices to Graunt's Observations.
• Quantulumcunque Concerning Money. 1682
• Note On the Essays In “political Arithmetick.”
• Another Essay In Political Arithmetick, Concerning the Growth of the City of London: With the Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences Thereof.1682. By Sir William Petty , Fellow of the Royal Society. London: Printed By H. H. For Mar
• Observations Upon the Dublin-bills of Mortality, M D C L X X X I. State of That City.
• Further Observation Upon the Dublin-bills: Or, Accompts of the Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials In That City.
• Two Essays In Political Arithmetick, Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c. London and Paris.
• Observations Upon the Cities of London and Rome.
• Five Essays In Political Arithmetick, Viz.
• Note On the “five Essays.”
• To the King's Most Excellent Majesty.
• The First Essay.
• The Second Essay.
• The Third Essay.
• The Fourth Essay 1 Concerning the Proportions of People In the 8 Eminent Cities of Christendom Undernamed , Viz.
• The Fifth Essay. Concerning Holland and the Rest of the United Provinces.
• A Treatise of Ireland, 1687. the Elements of Ireland; and of Its Religion, Trade & Policy. By Sir William Petty , Fellow of the Royal Society.
• Note On the “treatise of Ireland.
• An Essay In Political Arithmetick Concerning Ireland 1 .
• Preface.
• Chap. I.: By This Title We Mean the Several Points Following. (vizt)
• Chap. II.: The State of the Case Represented In Terms of Number, Weight, and Measure; and Thereby Made Capable of Demonstrations. ( Vizt )
• Chap. III.: The 6 First Mention'd Points Are Proved Out of the 20 Suppositions Or Assertions Next Before-going. ( Vizt )
• Chap. IV.: How to Enable the People of England and Ireland to Spend 5 Millions Worth of Commodities More Than Now: and How to Raise the Present Value of the Lands and Goods of Ireland From 2 to 3.
• Chap. V.: That the King's Revenue In England and In Ireland, Supposed to Be 2070 Thousand Pounds, Will Be Increased to Above ⅕ Part More (vizt) to 1 Above 414 Thousand Pounds; and Even to 450 Thousand Pounds: So As to Be In All 2520 Thousand Pounds.
• Chap. VI.
• Chap. VII.: How to Take Away All the Evils Arising From Differences of Births, Extractions, Languages, Manners, Customs, Religion, and Laws, and Pretence Whatsoever.
• Chap. VIII.: How the Names, Bounds, Titles, and Values, of Lands May Be Settled and Ascertained; With Remedy of the Miscarriages, Which Have Happened In the 35 Years Last Past In the Disposures of Them.
• Chap. IX.: A Repetition and Enlargement of What Has Been Here Said.
• An Appendix of Objections to This Essay, With Answers to the Same.
• Appendix.
• Bibliography of the Printed Writings of Sir William Petty 1 .
• Supplement to the Bibliography of Petty's Works.
• Bibliography of the Natural and Political Observations.

FIVE ESSAYS
IN
Political Arithmetick,
VIZ.

I. Objections from the City of Rey in Persia, and from Mons^rAuzout, against two former Essays, answered, and that London hath as many People as Paris, Rome and Rouen put together.

II. A Comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.

III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 Parishes named in the Bills of Mortality, there live about 696 thousand People.

IV. An estimate of the People in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, Rome, Dublin, Bristoll and Rouen, with several observations upon the same.

V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the VII United Provinces.

By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, Fellow of the Royal Society.

Invidiam augendo ulciscar.

LONDON, Printed for Henry Mortlock at the Phœnix in St. Paul's Church-yard. 1687.

NOTE ON THE “FIVE ESSAYS.”

Vendredy au soir.

Ce billet est pour vous supplier Monsieur de ne vouloir pas mettre l'endroit de la lettre de Monsieur Auzout ou il parle de celuy qui luy a dit qu'il n'y a que vingt quatre mil maisons parceque cecileur nuirait a tous deux et on me reprocherait d'estre cause de leur malheur. on est si delicat en france que la moindre chose qu'on trove disadvantageuse au pays chocque les gens ou les rend suspects. il faut mettre qu'on a dit a Monsieur Auzout qu'il n'y avait que vingt quatre mil maisons sans nommer celuy qui luy a dit. Vous en pouuez deuiner la raison. J'attends ce plaisir la de votre bonte et suis Vostre tres humble et tres obeissant serviteur

Justel.

For Mr Edmond Halley to be left with Mr Henry Hunt at Gresham College in bishopgatestreet London.

Accordingly no extract from Auzout's letter was published with Petty's three papers.

The Five Essays were published in English and French on opposite pages, each version having its own pagination. The French, here omitted, is a fairly close translation of the English. They were reviewed in Leclerc's Bibliotheque universelle et historique, VIII. Mars, 1688.

TO THE
KING's
Most Excellent MAJESTY.

SIR,

YOur Majesty having graciously accepted my two late Essays, about the Cities and Hospitals of London and Paris, as also my Observations on Rome and Rouen; I do (after six Months1 waiting for what may be said against my several Doctrines, by the able men of Europe) humbly present Your Majesty with a few other Papers upon the same Subject, to strengthen, explain and enlarge the former; hoping by such real arguments, better to praise and magnifie Your Majesty, than by any other the most specious Words and Elogies that can be imagined by

Your Majesty's
Most humble, loyal
and obedient Subject,

William Petty.

The FIRST ESSAY.

IT could not be expected that an assertion of London's being bigger than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger than any City of the World, should scape uncontradicted1 ; and 'tis also expected, that I (if continuing in the2 same persuasion) should make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,

I begin with the ingenious Authour of the3Republiq des Lettres4 , who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that ‖ in the sixth Century of Christianity (I suppose, An. 550 the middle of that Century) it had1 15000, or rather 44000 Moschees, or Mahometan Temples; to which I reply, that I hope this Objector is but in jest, for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no Moschees till about 50 years after.

2 In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsr. Auzout3 Letters from Rome, who is content that London, Westminster and Southwark, may have as many people as Paris and its Suburbs; and but faintly denieth, that all the Housing within the Bills, may have almost as many people as Paris and ‖ Rouen, but saith that several Parishes inserted into these Bills, are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it4 .

To which (as his main if not his onely objection)1 we answer: 1. That the London Bills appear in Grant's Book, to have been always since2 the year 1636, as they now are. 2. That about 50 years since, 3 or 4 Parishes, formerly some what distant3 were joyned by interposed Buildings, to the Bulk of the City, and therefore then inserted into the Bills. 3. That since 50 years, the whole ‖ buildings being more than double; have perfected that Union, so as there is no House within the said Bills, from which one may not call to some other House. 4. All this is confirmed by Authority of the King and City, and the Custome of 50 years4 . 5. That there are but 3 Parishes under any colour of this Exception, which are scarce part of the whole.

Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsr. Auzout's large Letter, dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made Remarques5 upon every Paragraph therof; but suppressing it(because it lookt like a War against a worth Person ‖ with6 whom I intended none, whereas in truth it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the shorter and softer7 way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz. ‖

Concerning the number of People in London, as also in Paris, Rouen and Rome, Viz.

89

12345678

12345678

9 Which number of 114,284 is probably more People than any other City of France contains. ‖

The SECOND ESSAY.

As for other Comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, viz.

1. That 40 per Cent. die out of the Hospitals at Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and scarce of that proportion out of the Hospitals of London, which have been shewn to be better than the best of Paris.

2. That at Paris 81280 Kitchins, are within less than 24000 ‖ Street-dores1 , which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London.

3. Where the number of Christnings are near unto, or exceed the Burials, the People are poorer, having few Servants and little Equipage.

4. The river of Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seyne, and its Waters better and more wholesome; and the Bridge of London, is the most considerable of all Europe.

5. The Shipping and foreign Trade of London is incomparably greater than that at Paris and Rouen. ‖

6. The Lawyers Chambers at London have 2772 Chimnies in them, and are worth 140 thousand Pounds sterling, or 3 millions of French Livers, besides the dwellings of their Families elsewhere.

7. The Air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce 2 of 16 die out of the worst Hospitals, but at Paris above 2 of 15 out of the best. Moreover the Burials of Paris are ⅕ part above and below the Medium, but at London not above , so as the intemperies of the Air at Paris is far greater than at London.

8. The Fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the Coals being an ‖ wholesome sulphurous bitumen.

9. All the most necessary sorts of Victuals, and of Fish, are cheaper, and Drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.

10. The Churches of London we leave to be judg'd by thinking that nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, nor so beautifull as Henry the seventh's Chapel.

11. On the other hand, 'tis probable, that there is more Money in Paris than London, if the publick Revenue (grosly speaking, ‖ quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.

12. Paris hath not been for these last 50 years so much infested with the Plague as London; now that at London the Plague (which between the year 1591 and 1666, made 5 returns, viz. every 15 years, at a Medium, and at each time carried away ⅕ of the People) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by God's ordinary Blessing to lessen the same by ⅔ when it next appeareth1 .

13. As to the Ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we say, that if there be 5 Stories ‖ or Floors of Housing at Paris, for 4 at London, or in that proportion, then the 82 thousand Families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65 thousand London Housteds, and if there be 115 thousand Families at London, and but 82 thousand at Paris, then the proportion of the London Ground to that of Paris is as 115 to 65, or as 23 to 13.

14. Moreover Paris is said to be an Oval of 3 English Miles long and 2½ broad, the Area whereof contains but 5½ square Miles; but London is 7 Miles long, and 1¼ broad at a Medium, which makes an Area of near 9 square Miles, which proportion of 5½ to 9 differs little from that of 13 to 23. ‖

15. Memorandum, That in Nero's time, as Monsr. Chivreau reporteth1 , there died 300 thousand People of the Plague in Old Rome; Now if there died 3 of 10 then, and there, being a hotter Countrey, as there dies 2 of 10 at London, the number of People at that time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700 thousand. Moreover the Ground within the Walls of Old Rome was a Circle but of 3 Miles diameter, whose Area is about 7 square Miles, and the Suburbs scarce as much more, in all about 13 square Miles, whereas the built Ground at London is about 9 square Miles as ‖ aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions, agree with each other, and consequently Old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, which we offer to Antiquaries. ‖

The THIRD ESSAY.

PRoofs that the number of People in the 134 Parishes of the London Bills of Mortality, without reference to other Cities, is about 696 thousand, viz.

I know but three ways of finding the same.

1. By the Houses, and Families, and Heads living in each.

2. By the number of Burials in healthfull times, and by the proportion of those that live, to those that die. ‖

3. By the number of those who die of the Plague in Pestilential years, in proportion to those that scape.

The First way.

To know the number of Houses I used three methods, viz.

1. The number of Houses which were burnt Anno 1666, which by authentick Report was 13200; next what proportion the People who dyed out of those Houses, bore to the whole; which I find Anno 1686, to be but part, but Anno 1666 to be almost ⅕, from whence I infer the whole Housing of London ‖ Anno 1666 to have been 66 thousand, then finding the Burials Anno 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4, I pitch upon 88 thousand to be the number of Housing Anno 1686.

2. Those who have been employed in making the general Map1 of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year, they had found above 84 thousand Houses to be in London, wherefore Anno 1686, or in 4 years more, there might be or 8400 Houses more (London doubling in 40 years) so as the whole, Anno 1686 might be 92400. ‖

3. I found that Anno 1685, there were 29325 Harths in Dublin, and 6400 Houses, and in London 388 thousand Harths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87000 Houses in London. Moreover I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16752 Harths, and 5307 Houses, and in London 388 thousand Harths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have been 123 thousand Houses in London, and at a Medium between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105 thousand Houses.

Lastly, By Certificate from the Harth-Office, I find the Houses within the Bills of Mortality to be 105,315. ‖

Having thus found the Houses, I proceed next to the number of Families in them, and first I thought that if there were 3 or 4 Families or Kitchins in every House of Paris, there might be 2 Families in of the Housing of London; unto which supposition, the common opinion of several Friends, doth concur with my own conjectures.

As to the number of Heads in each Family, I stick to Grant's observation in page1 of his fifth Edition, That in Tradesmen of London's Families, there be 8 Heads one with another, in Families of higher Ranks, above 10, ‖ and in the poorest near 5, according to which proportions, I had upon another occasion2 pitch'd the medium of Heads in all the Families of England to be 6兓, but quitting the Fraction in this Case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for 6.

To conclude, the Houses of London being 105315, and the addition of double Families 10531 more, in all 115846; I multiplied the same by 6, which produced 695076 for the number of the People.

The Second way.

I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and ‖ both healthfull, did wonderfully agree in their Burials, viz. 1684 they were 23202, and Anno 1685 23222, the Medium whereof is 23212; Moreover that the Christnings 1684 were 14,702, and those Anno 1685 were 14730, wherefore I multiplied the Medium of Burials 23212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of People 696,360 Souls1 .

Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London, or thereabouts, I say,

1. That Grant in the2 page of his fifth Edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per ‖ an. which is near the same proportion.

2. I found that out of healthfull places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but 1 out of 50 among our Parliament men, and that the Kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years each.

3. Grant, page hath shewn3 that but about 1 of 20 die per an. out of young Children under 10 years old, and Monsr. Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick at a Medium to the number 30. ‖

4. In 9 Countrey Parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per an. or 311 out of 11507, wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our Burials by 30, to find the number of the People, the product being 696,360, and what we find by the Families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.

The Third way.

It was prov'd by Grant1 , that ⅕ of the People died of the Plague, but Anno 1665 there died of the ‖ Plague near 98 thousand persons2 , the Quintuple whereof is 490 thousand, as the number of People in the year 1665, whereunto adding above ⅓, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total is 653 thousand, agreeing well enough with the other two Computations above mentioned.

Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in its place.

Memorandum, That 2 or 3 hundred new Houses would make a Contiguity of 2 or 3 other great Parishes, with the 134 already mentioned in the Bills of Mortality; and that an oval Wall of about 20 Miles in compass would enclose the ‖ same, and all the Shipping at Deptford and Black-wall, and would also fence in 20 thousand Acres of Land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the Owners, and Inhabitants of that Ground, as also to the whole Nation and Government. ‖

The FOURTH ESSAY1

Concerning the proportions of People in the 8 eminent Cities of Christendom undernamed, viz.

1. WE have by the number of Burials in healthfull years, and by the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number of Houses and Families within the 134 Parishes, called London, and the estimate of the Heads in each, pitch'd upon the number of People in that City to be at a Medium 695718. ‖

2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80 thousand Families (viz. 81280) do live in 23223 Houses, 32 Palaces, and 38 Colleges, or that there are 81,280 Kitchins within less than 24 thousand Street-dores; as also by allowing 30 Heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have pitch'd upon the number of People there at a Medium to be 488055, nor have we restrained them to 300 thousand, by allowing with Monsr. Auzout 6 Heads for each of Morery's 50 thousand Houses or Families.

3. To Amsterdam we allow 187350 Souls, viz. 30 times the number of their Burials, which were 6245 in the year 1685. ‖

4. To Venice we allow 134 thousand Souls, as found there in a special account taken by authority, about 10 years since, when the City abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks1 .

5. To Rome we allow 119 thousand Christians and 6000 Jews, in all 125 thousand Souls, according to an account sent hither of the same by Monsr. Auzout2 .

6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its Burials, the Medium whereof for the last 2 years is 2303, viz. 69090 Souls. ‖

7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6400 Houses of Dublin, give 69,090 People, that the 5307 Houses of Bristol, must give above 56 thousand People; Moreover, if the 29325 Harths of Dublin give 69,090 People, the 16,752 Harths of Bristol, must give about 40 thousand; but the Medium of 56 thousand and 40 thousand is 48 thousand.

8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsr. Auzout's fancy of 80 thousand Souls to be in that City, and the conjecture of knowing Men that Rouen is between the and ⅛ part of Paris, and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; By all which, we estimate ‖ (till farther light) that Rouen hath at most but 66 thousand People in it.

Now it may be woundred why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so little knowledge of it; Whereunto we answer, that we did not think it just to compare London with Paris, as to Shipping and foreign Trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of London which is below the Bridge, is to what is above it.

All which we heartily submit to the correction of the Curious and ‖ Candid, in the mean time observing according to the Gross numbers undermentioned.

Observations on the said 8 Cities.

thousand, or 17 thousand less than the 696 thousand of London alone.

2. That the People of the 2 English Cities and Emporiums, viz. of London 696 thousand, and Bristol 48 thousand, do make 744 thousand, or more than

3. That the same 2 English Cities seem equivalent

If there be any Errour in these Conjectures concerning these Cities of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at work upon that matter1 . ‖

4. That the King of England's 3 Cities, viz.

5. That of the 4 great Emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other 3, viz. above 7 to 4.

6. That London (for ought appears) is the greatest and most considerable City of the World, but manifestly the greatest Emporium.

When these Assertions have past the Examen of the Critiques, we shall make another Essay, shewing how to apply those Truths to the Honour and Profit of the King and Kingdom of England2 . ‖

The FIFTH ESSAY.

Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.

SInce the close of this Paper, it hath been objected from Holland, That what hath been said of the number of Houses and People in London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the ⅔ of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, That London is the ⅔ of all Holland and more, that Province having not a Million and 44 thousand Inhabitants (whereof 696 m. is the ⅔) nor above 800 ‖ thousand, as we have credibly and often heard; for suppose Amsterdam hath, as we have elsewhere noted1 187 thousand, the seven next great Cities at 30 thousand each one with another 210 thousand, the 10 next at 15 thousand each 150 thousand, the 10 smallest at 6 thousand each 60 thousand, in all the 28 walled Cities and Towns of Holland 607 thousand, in the Dorps and Villages 193 thousand, which is about one Head for every 4 Acres of Land; whereas in England there is 8 Acres for every Head, without the Cities and Market Towns.

Now, suppose London having 116 thousand Families, should have 7 Heads in each, the medium between Monsr. Auzout and Grant's ‖ reckonings, the total of the People would be 812 thousand, or if we reckon that there dies one out of 34 (the Medium between 30 and 37 above mentioned2 ) the total of the People would be 34 times 23212, viz. 789208, the Medium between which number, and the above 812 thousand is 800604, somewhat exceeding 800 thousand, the supposed number of Holland1 .

Farthermore, I say that upon former searches into the Peopling of the World, I never found that in any Countrey (not in China it self) there was more than one Man to every English Acre of Land (many Territories passing for well peopled, where there is but one Man for ten ‖ such acres) I found by measuring Holland and West-Frizia, alias North-Holland, upon the best Maps, that it contained but as many such Acres as London doth of People, viz. about 696 thousand Acres; I therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) That the People of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above ⅔ of the same; which is enough to disable the Objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from 696 thousand to 800 thousand, though competent reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the Authour of the excellent Map of London, set forth Anno 1682, reckoned the People thereof (as by the said Map2 appears) to be 1200 ‖ thousand, even when he thought the Houses of the same to be but 85 thousand.

The worthy person who makes this objection in the same Letter also saith,

1. That the Province of Holland, hath as many People as the other 6 United Provinces together, and as the whole Kingdom of England, and double to the City of Paris and its Suburbs; that is to say, 2 millions of Souls1 . 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading Cities, there are 10 Heads to every Family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22 thousand Families. 3. He excepteth against the Register alledged by Monsr. Auzout, which ‖ makes 23223 Houses and above 80 thousand Families to be in Paris, as also against the Register alledged by Petty, making 105315 Houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of Families more than Houses, and probably will except against the Register of 11632 Houses to be in all England, that number giving at 6⅓ Heads to each Family, about 7 millions of People, upon all which we remark as followeth, viz.

1. That if Paris doth contain but 488 thousand Souls, that then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976 thousand, wherefore London containing 696 thousand Souls, hath above ⅔ of all Holland by 46 thousand. ‖

2. If Paris containeth half as many People as there are in all England, it must contain 3 millions and a half of Souls, or above 7 times 488 thousand, and because there do not die 20 thousand per an. out of Paris, there must die but one out of 175, whereas Monsr. Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 Heads in every House of Paris mentioned in the Register, but there must be scarce 2 Heads in every House of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.

I must as an English Man take notice of one point more, which is, ‖ that these Assertions do reflect upon the Empire of England, for that it is said, that England hath but 2 millions of Inhabitants, and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jearsey and Gearnsey have but ⅖ of the same number, or 800 thousand more, or that all the King of England's Subjects in Europe are but 2 millions and 800 thousand Souls, whereas he saith, that the Subjects of the 7 United Provinces are 4 Millions. To which we answer, That the Subjects of the said 7 Provinces, are by this Objectour's own shewing, but the Quadruple of Paris, or 1932 thousand1 Souls, Paris containing but 488000, as afore hath been prov'd, and we do here affirm that England ‖ hath 7 millions of People, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Fearsey and Gearnsey, hath ⅖ of the said number, or 2 millions 800 thousand more, in all 9 millions 800 thousand; whereas by the Objectour's doctrine, if the 7 Provinces have 1932 thousand People, the King of England's Territories should have but of the same number, viz. 1351 thousand whereas we say 9800 thousand, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.

To conclude, we expect from the concerned Critiques of the World, that they would prove, ‖

1. That Holland and West-Frizia, and the 28 Towns and Cities thereof, hath more People than London alone.

2. That any 3 the best Cities of France, any 2 of all Christendom, or any one of the World, hath the same, or better Housing, and more foreign Trade than London, even in the year that King James the Second came to the Empire thereof.

THE END

[1]The Two Essays were licensed the 26 August, 1686, the Five Essays the 18 February, 1687.

[1]The fact that the Two Essays were published in French and that an “extract” of them appeared in the Philosophical Transactions may have contributed something, perhaps, to the attention which they attracted on the continent; their subject, however, doubtless had more to do with it. Pierre Bayle reviewed them in his Nouvelles de la République des Lettres for October, 1686 (p. 1144 ff.; also in his Ocuvres diverses, pp. 661–662), and the Leipzig Acta eruditorum for October, 1687, summarized his review in connection with its notice of Petty's Further Assertion. Bayle concludes, “On attend quelques autres Pieces considerables de M. le Chevalier Petty, qui apparemment se verra critiqué bientôt par quelque Savant de Paris.” It seems that Bayle's conjecture must have been verified, for the 3rd November Justel communicated to the Royal Society that there was an answer published in France to Petty's essay on the comparison between London and Paris, and in the same month Petty was told by the King that his Essays were answering in France, and by several others that the mightiest hammers there were battering his poor anvil. Birch, IV. 500, Fitzmaurice, 285 I have found no trace of these replies, nor anything to indicate that they ever came into Petty's hands. (See “The Eighth Objection” in the Treatise of Ireland, post). Bayle's criticism, on the contrary, doubtless reached Petty in November, as the previous number of the Nouvelles, September, 1686, was received at the Royal Society 27 October, 1686. Birch, IV. 498.

[2]1686, ‘that.’

[3]1686, ‘the Nouvelles de la Rèpublique.’

[4]Bayle, commenting on Petty's assertion that London was the largest city in the world, asks, “Mais que seroit-ce en comparaison de Rey, si tout ce que les Historiens de Perse en disent étoit véritable?” He then refers to his review of The Travels of Sir John Chardin into Persia and the East Indies (London: Moses Pitt, 1686, f°), in the same number of the Nouvelles. The passage of Chardin (p. 387), which Bayle translates, runs thus: “Opposite to this [Ech-mouil] are to be seen some footsteps of that famous City of Rey, the biggest city in Asia.… The Persian Histories report, that in the time of Calife Medybilla-abou-Mohamed. Darvanich, who liv'd in the ninth Age of Christianism the City of Rey was divided into 96 Quarters, of which every one contained 46 streets, and every Street 400 Houses and ten Mosques.… Arabian writers affirm in like manner, that in the third Age of Muhametism, which is exactly at the same time, that Rey was the best peopl'd City in Asia.” This refers obviously to the ninth century, but Bayle summarizes “elle [la Geographic Persane] porte qu'au 6. siècle du Christianisme la Ville de Rey étoit divisée,” etc. And it is exclusively against this chronological blunder, perhaps caused by a misprint, that Petty directs his answer to Bayle.

[1]1686, ‘An. 550, it had.’

[2]1686: ‘The next is the excellent Monsicur Auzout from Rome, who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark with the contigous Housing may have,’ etc. The French version of 1687 has, ‘Ensuite je repons aux lettres que l'excellent Mr. Auzout écrit de Londres., In the 1699 edition “Londres” is altered to “Rome.”

[3]Adrien Auzout, astronomer, was born at Rouen early in the seventeenth century. He was one of the first members of the Académie des Sciences, but lost his seat through an intrigue and went to Italy, dying at Rome in 1691. Auzout was a frequent correspondent of the Royal Society. Birch, IV. 162, 301; Philos. Trans. no. 1, p. 3, no. 2, p. 18, no. 3, p. 36, no. 4, pp. 55, 56, 63, 68, 69, 74, no. 7, p. 120, no. 12, p. 203, no. 21, p. 373. His letter or letters here referred to are not preserved at the Royal Society, nor do I find any allusion to his letter of 19 November in Justel's letters. He may have addressed himself to Petty directly.

[4]See p. 423.

[1]1686, ‘his main, if not only Objections.’

[2]1686, ‘to have been, since.’

[3]1686, ‘formerly distant.’

[4]1686, ‘and so long custom.’ ‘Of 50 years’ was added in 1687.

[5]1686, ‘Upon sight of Monsieur Auzouts large Letter, I made Remarques.’

[6]1686, ‘against one with.’

[7]1686, 's weeter.’

[8]1686, ‘Register.’

[9]Petty previously allowed eight heads to the tenanted house (p. 459) and later (p. 534), he assumed eight, ten or five according to social position.

[1]1686, ‘to M. Auzout's opinion.’

[2]1686, ‘was allowed by.’

[3]1686, ‘and that.’

[4]1686, ‘Number, the neat.’

[5]488,055 should be 489,555; this mistake, continued through the subsequent calculations, gives rise to errors that are mentioned in the notes. But accepting Petty's mistaken “medium of the said two Paris accounts,” his calculations are correct.

[6]“Really” apparently refers to Petty's previous use (p. 506) of 22,337 as the medium of London burials. He gets this new and higher medium by taking the years 1684 and 1685 only, instead of 1683–85, as in the Two Essays.

[7]1686, ‘part or 10531.’ The ‘10,331’ of the 1687 edition is a misprint for 10,531.

[8]115,840 is a misprint for 115,846.

[1]1686 omits 's o as.’

[2]1686, ‘the above-said Account.’

[3]‘488,055 's hould be 489,555.

[4]‘693,055’ should be 694,555.

[5]1686 omits ‘in a former letter,’ which may imply that a second letter, making the first ‘former,’ was received from Auzout between the publication of this essay in the Philos. Trans. and its issue in book form.

[6]‘2663’ should be 1163.

[7]‘114,284’ should be 112,784.

[8]1686, ‘without them, hath.’

[9]1686 omits the last paragraph ‘Which… contains,’ and concludes with the 's everal other estimates’ printed on p. 537.

[1]On the basis of one kitchen for each of Auzout's families and one street door for each of his 23,233 houses, see p. 527.

[1]Probably an allusion to Petty's plan ‘Of Lessening ye Plagues of London.’ See Verbum Sap., p. 109, note.

[1]Petty's use of Chevreau's estimate argues no knowledge of the Histoire du Monde (Paris, 1686, 2 v. 4°) beyond what he might have drawn from Bayle's words, “Il s étend beaucoup sur la magnificence de Rome… Il croit qu'il s'y est trouvé prés de quatre millions d'habitans, & il reporte que les trois cens mille personnes quiry moururent de peste en une Automne sous le regne de Neron, ne firent pas remarquer que le nombre des habitans fῦt devenu moindre. République des Letters, Nov., 1686, Oeuvres, I. 680.

[1]Petty twice refers to a map of London “set forth in the year 1682” (see also p. 542), but no such map can be found at the British Museum. Mr C. H. Coote, of the Department of Maps, thinks it probable that the map which Petty used was Ogilby and Morgan's. This map was published with the title: A large and accurate map of the city of London Ichnographically Describing all the Streets, Lanes, Alleys, Courts, Yards, Churches, Halls and Houses, &c. Actually Surveyed and Delineated By John Ogilby Esq.… dedicated and presented by… William Morgan, and was accompanied by a descriptive text entitled London Survey'd: or, an explanation of the large map of London. Giving a Particular Account Of the Streets and Lanes, in the City and Liberties. By John Ogilby & William Morgan, His Majesty's Cosmographers. London, Printed and Sold at the Authors House In White Fryers, 1677. So far as I can discover, neither the map nor the text makes any calculation of the population or of the houses of London.

[1]Page 82 of the fifth ed., p. 385 of this reprint.

[2]In some calculation now probably lost.

[1]Cf. p. 506, where, by averaging more years, Petty gets a smaller population.

[2]Page 82 of the fifth ed., p. 385 of this reprint. Graunt says that 3 died out of 11 families and guesses that the families have, one with another, 8 members.

[3]Graunt makes no such assertion. Petty's proposition appears to be a guess which may find some slight support on pp. 386–387 of Graunt.

[1]Graunt does not say this.

[2]In 1665 there died in all 97,306, whereof 68,596 of the plague. On this basis, Petty's method would give a population of about 460,000 in 1686, agreeing ill enough with the other two computations above mentioned.

[1]This essay is outlined in the “Several other Estimates” which Petty appended to the earliest publication of the First Essay (p. 512) viz.

• I. That London alone is equal to Paris, Roven, and Rome, as aforesaid.
• II. That London, Bristol, and Dublin are equal to Paris, Amsterdam, and Venice.
• III. That London alone is to Amsterdam, Venice, and Roven as 7 to 4.
• IV. That London and Bristol are equal to any four Cities of France.
• V. That Dublin is probably equal to the second best City, of any Kingdom or State in Christendome.
• VI. That London, for ought appears, is the greatest City of the World, but manifestly the greatest Emporium.

[1]In the Commonplace book of Petty's friend Dr Ent at the Royal Society (MSS. vol. 83) is a memorandum (pp. 78–79) of the number of inhabitants of Venice. The classes enumerated are noblemen, merchants, servants, artificers, beggars, friars, nuns, priests, poor in hospitals, Jews. In most cases they are distinguished as male and female, and the number of their children, male and female, is also given. The total is 134,801. If Petty's authority be, as seems not improbable, the same as that used by Ent, the chronology is confused. He was writing in 1686 or 1687. Candia surrendered nearly 20 years before, the special account is said by Ent to have been taken more than 20 years before the surrender, and Yriarte appears to assign it to the year 1582. La vte d'un patricien de Venise, p. 72. Unfortunately I have no present access to such authoritative books as might determine the question. The Present State of Venice, by J. Gailhard (1669) says that the city contains above 300,000 souls.

[2]See p. 529, and note 5.

[1]See p. 525, note.

[2]Failing health and interest in his Treatise of Ireland, printed in this volume, probably prevented Petty from writing the promised essay.

[1]See p. 538.

[2]See pp. 535–536.

[1]The Aanwysing der heilsame politike Gronden en Maximen van de Republike van Holland en West-Vriesland, Leyden, 1669, frequently attributed to De Witt, but written chiefly by Pieter de la Court, gives the return of a “very strict and severe” poll tax in 1662. There were then found but 481,934 persons in South Holland, and supposing West Friesland might yield a fourth part as many, the total population would have been 602,417. “But because possibly none but intelligent Readers, and such as have travelled, will believe, what we see is customary in all Places, that the number of people in all Populous Countries is excessively magnified, and that the Common Readers will think, that since many would be willing to evade the Poll Tax, there was an extraordinary Fraud in the Number given in: I shall therefore follow the common Opinion, and conclude, that the Number of People was indeed much greater, and that these Countries are since that time much improved in the Number of Inhabitants; and accordingly I shall give a guess as by vulgar Report, that the whole Number, without excluding any Inhabitants whatsoever, may amount to two Millions and four hundred thousand People.” P. 40–41 of the Engl. Transl., The True Interest of Holland, 1702.

[2]See p. 533, note.

[1]Van Beuningen (1622–1693), Dutch ambassador in London, was in the habit of asserting that all England had not more than two million inhabitants, and that the Netherlands were equally populous. De Leti, Del teatro britannico, 75.

[2]‘1,163’ is a misprint for 1,163,000; the French version speaks of “leregistre de 1163 m. maisons en toute l'Angleterre.”

[1]Really 1,952,000.