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• Note On Graunt's “observations.”
• To the Right Honourable John Lord Roberts 1 , Baron of Truro , Lord Privy Seal , and One of His Majesties Most Honourable Privy Council.
• To the Honourable S R Robert Moray 1 , Knight, One of His Majestie's Privy Council For His Kingdom of Scotland , and President of the Royal Society of Philosophers Meeting At Gresham- Colledg , and to the Rest of That Honourable Society.
• The Preface.
• Natural and Political Observations, &c.
• Chap. I.: Of the Bills of Mortality, Their Beginning, and Progress. 1
• [chap. II.] 1: General Observations Upon the Casualties.
• Chap. III.: Of Particular Casualties.
• Chap. IV. of the Plague.
• Chap. V.: Other Observations Upon the Plague, and Casualties.
• Chap. VI.: Of the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of Seasons.
• Chap. VII.: Of the Difference Between Burials and Christenings.
• Chap. VIII.: Of the Difference Between the Numbers of Males and Females.
• Chap. IX.: Of the Growth of the City.
• Chap. X.: Of the Inequality of Parishes.
• Chap. XI.: Of the Number of Inhabitants.
• Chap. XII.: Of the Country-bills.
• The Conclusion.: an Appendix 1 .
• Appendices to Graunt's Observations.
• Quantulumcunque Concerning Money. 1682
• Note On the Essays In “political Arithmetick.”
• Another Essay In Political Arithmetick, Concerning the Growth of the City of London: With the Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences Thereof.1682. By Sir William Petty , Fellow of the Royal Society. London: Printed By H. H. For Mar
• Observations Upon the Dublin-bills of Mortality, M D C L X X X I. State of That City.
• Further Observation Upon the Dublin-bills: Or, Accompts of the Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials In That City.
• Two Essays In Political Arithmetick, Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c. London and Paris.
• Observations Upon the Cities of London and Rome.
• Five Essays In Political Arithmetick, Viz.
• Note On the “five Essays.”
• To the King's Most Excellent Majesty.
• The First Essay.
• The Second Essay.
• The Third Essay.
• The Fourth Essay 1 Concerning the Proportions of People In the 8 Eminent Cities of Christendom Undernamed , Viz.
• The Fifth Essay. Concerning Holland and the Rest of the United Provinces.
• A Treatise of Ireland, 1687. the Elements of Ireland; and of Its Religion, Trade & Policy. By Sir William Petty , Fellow of the Royal Society.
• Note On the “treatise of Ireland.
• An Essay In Political Arithmetick Concerning Ireland 1 .
• Preface.
• Chap. I.: By This Title We Mean the Several Points Following. (vizt)
• Chap. II.: The State of the Case Represented In Terms of Number, Weight, and Measure; and Thereby Made Capable of Demonstrations. ( Vizt )
• Chap. III.: The 6 First Mention'd Points Are Proved Out of the 20 Suppositions Or Assertions Next Before-going. ( Vizt )
• Chap. IV.: How to Enable the People of England and Ireland to Spend 5 Millions Worth of Commodities More Than Now: and How to Raise the Present Value of the Lands and Goods of Ireland From 2 to 3.
• Chap. V.: That the King's Revenue In England and In Ireland, Supposed to Be 2070 Thousand Pounds, Will Be Increased to Above ⅕ Part More (vizt) to 1 Above 414 Thousand Pounds; and Even to 450 Thousand Pounds: So As to Be In All 2520 Thousand Pounds.
• Chap. VI.
• Chap. VII.: How to Take Away All the Evils Arising From Differences of Births, Extractions, Languages, Manners, Customs, Religion, and Laws, and Pretence Whatsoever.
• Chap. VIII.: How the Names, Bounds, Titles, and Values, of Lands May Be Settled and Ascertained; With Remedy of the Miscarriages, Which Have Happened In the 35 Years Last Past In the Disposures of Them.
• Chap. IX.: A Repetition and Enlargement of What Has Been Here Said.
• An Appendix of Objections to This Essay, With Answers to the Same.
• Appendix.
• Bibliography of the Printed Writings of Sir William Petty 1 .
• Supplement to the Bibliography of Petty's Works.
• Bibliography of the Natural and Political Observations.

Natural and Political OBSERVATIONS, &c.

CHAP. I.

Of the Bills of Mortality, their beginning, and progress.1

THE first of the continued Weekly Bills of Mortality extant at the Parish Clerks Hall2 , begins the Twenty ninth of December 1603, being the first year of King James his Reign; since when a weekly Accompt hath been kept there of Burials and Christnings. It is true, There were Bills ‖ before, viz. for the Years 1592, -93, -94; but so interrupted since, that I could not depend upon the sufficiency of them, rather relying upon those Accompts, which have been kept since in order, as to all the uses I shall make of them.

2. I believe, that the rise of keeping these Accompts was taken from the Plague: for the said Bills (for ought appears) first began in the said year 1592, being a time of great Mortality; and, after some disuse, were resumed again in the year 1603, after the great Plague then happening likewise1 .

3. These Bills were printed and published, not only every Week on Thursdays, but also a general Accompt of the whole Year was given in upon the Thursday before Christmas-day: which said general Accompts have been presented in the several manners following, viz. from the Year 1603, to the Year 1624, inclusivè, according to the Pattern here inserted2 .

The general Bill for the whole Year, of all the Burials and Christnings, as well within the City of London, and the Liberties thereof, as in the Nine out Parishes adjoyning tothe City, with the Pest-house belonging ‖ to the same: from Thursday the 18. of December 1623, to Thursday the 16. of December, 1624, according to the Report made to the King's most Excellent Majesty by the Company of the Parish-Clerks of London.

4. In the Year 1625, every Parish was particularized1 , as in this following Bill: where note, That this next year of Plague caused the Augmentation, and Correction of the Bills; as the former year of Plague did the very being of them.

A general, or great Bill for this Year, of the whole number of Burials, which have been buried of all Diseases, and also of the Plague in every Parish within the City of London, and the Liberties thereof; as also in the Nine out Parishes adjoyning to the said City; with the Pest-house belonging to the same: from Thursday the 16. day of December, 1624. to Thursday the 15. day of December, 1625. according to the Report ‖ made to the King's most Excellent Majesty by the Company of Parish Clerks of London.

1234

5. In the Year 1626, the City of Westminster, in imitation of London, was inserted. The gross Accompt of the Burials and Christenings, with distinction of the Plague being only taken notice of therein; the fifth, or last Canton, or Lined-space, of the said Bill, being varied into the form following, viz.

6. In the Year 1629, an Accompt of the Diseases and Casualties, whereof any dyed, together with the distinction of Males and Females, making the sixth Canton of the Bill, was added in manner following.1

The Canton of Casualties; and of the Bill for the Year 1632, being of the same form with that of 1629. ‖

1

2

7. In the Year 1636, the Accompt of the Burials and Christnings, in the Parishes of Islington, Lambeth, Stepney, Newington, Hackney, and Redriff were added3 in the manner following, making a seventh Canton, viz. ‖

8. Covent-Garden being made a Parish1 , the Nine out Parishes were called the Ten out Parishes, the which in former years were but Eight.

9. In the Year 1660, the last-mentioned ten Parishes, with Westminster, Islington, Lambeth, Stepney, Newington, Hackney, and Redriff, are entred under two Divisions, viz. the one containing the Twelve Parishes lying in Middlesex and Surrey, and the other the Five Parishes within the City and Liberties of Westminster, viz. St. Clement Danes, St. Paul's Covent-Garden, St. Martin's in the Fields, St. Mary-Savoy, and St. Margaret's Westminster.

10. We have hitherto described the several steps whereby the Bills of Mortality are come up to their present state; we come next to shew how they are made and composed, which is in this manner, viz. When any one dies, then, either by tolling, or ringing of a Bell, or by bespeaking of a Grave of the Sexton, the same is known to the Searchers, corresponding with the said Sexton.

11. The Searchers hereupon (who are ancient Matrons, sworn to their Office) repair to the place where the dead Corps lies, and by view of the same, and by other enquiries, they examine by what Disease or Casualty ‖ the Corps died. Hereupon they make their Report to the Parish Clerk, and he, every Tuesday night, carries in an Accompt of all the Burials and Christnings happening that Week, to the Clerk of the Hall. On Wednesday the general Accompt is made up and printed, and on Thursday published and dispersed to the several Families who will pay four Shillings per Annum for them.

12. Memorandum, That although the general yearly Bills have been set out in the several varieties aforementioned, yet the Original Entries in the Hall-books were as exact in the very first year, as to all particulars, as now; and the specifying of Casualties and Diseases was probably more.

[CHAP. II.]1

General Observations upon the Casualties.

IN my Discourses upon these Bills, I shall first speak of the Casualties, then give my Observations with reference to the Places and Parishes comprehended in the Bills; and next of the Years and Seasons.

1. There seems to be good reason, why the Magistrate should himself take notice of the ‖ numbers of Burials and Christnings, viz. to see whether the City increase or decrease in People; whether it increase proportionably with the rest of the Nation; whether it be grown big enough, or too big, &c. But why the same should be made known to the People, otherwise than to please them, as with a curiosity, I see not.

2. Nor could I ever yet learn (from the many I have asked, and those not of the least Sagacity) to what purpose the distinction between Males and Females is inserted, or at all taken notice of? or why that of Marriages was not equally given in? Nor is it obvious to every body, why the Accompt of Casualties (whereof we are now speaking) is made? The reason, which seems most obvious for this later, is, That the state of health in the City may at all times appear.

3. Now it may be Objected, That the same depends most upon the Accompts of Epidemical Diseases, and upon the chief of them all, the Plague; wherefore the mention of the rest seems only matter of curiosity.

4. But to this we Answer, That the knowledge even of the numbers which dye of the Plague, is not sufficiently deduced from the meer Report of the Searchers, which only the Bills afford; but from other Ratiocinations, ‖ and comparings of the Plague with some other Casualties.

5. For we shall make it probable1 , that in the Years of Plague, a quarter part more dies of that Disease than are set down; the same we shall also prove by other Casualties. Wherefore, if it be necessary to impart to the world a good Accompt of some few Casualties, which since it cannot well be done without giving an Accompt of them all, then is our common practice of so doing very apt and rational.

6. Now, to make these Corrections upon the, perhaps, ignorant and careless Searchers Reports, I considered first of what Authority they were of themselves, that is, whether any credit at all were to be given to their Distinguishments: and finding that many of the Casualties were but matter of sense, as whether a Child were Abortive or Stilborn; whether men were Aged, that is to say, above sixty years old, or thereabouts when they died, without any curious determination; whether such Aged persons died purely of Age, as for that the Innate heat was quite extinct, or the Radical moisture quite dried up (for I have heard some Candid Physicians complain of the darkness which themselves were in hereupon1 ) I say, that these Distinguishments ‖ being but matter of sense, I concluded the Searchers Report might be sufficient in the Case.

7. As for Consumptions, if the Searchers do but truly Report (as they may) whether the dead Corps were very lean and worn away, it matters not to many of our purposes, whether the Disease were exactly the same, as Physicians define it in their Books. Moreover, In case a man of seventy five years old died of a Cough (of which had he been free, he might have possibly lived to ninety) I esteem it little errour (as to many of our purposes) if this Person be in the Table of Casualties, reckoned among the Aged, and not placed under the Title of Coughs.

8. In the matters of Infants I would desire but to know clearly, what the Searchers mean by Infants, as whether Children that cannot speak, as the word Infant seems to signifie, or Children under two or three years old, although I should not be satisfied, whether the Infant died of Wind, or of Teeth, or of the Convulsion, &c. or were choaked with Phlegm, or else of Teeth, Convulsion, and Scowring, apart, or together, which, they say, do often cause one another; for, I say, it is somewhat to know how many die usually before they can speak, or how many live past any assigned number of years. ‖

9. I say, it is enough, if we know from the Searchers but the most predominant Symptoms; as that one died of the Headach, who was sorely tormented with it, though the Physicians were of Opinion, that the Disease was in the Stomach. Again, if one died suddenly, the matter is not great, whether it be reported in the Bills, Suddenly, Apoplexy, or Planet-strucken, &c.

10. To conclude, In many of these Cases the Searchers are able to report the Opinion of the Physician, who was with the Patient, as they receive the same from the Friends of the Defunct: and in very many Cases, such as Drowning, Scalding, Bleeding, Vomitting, making away themselves, Lunaticks, Sores, Small-pox, &c. their own senses are sufficient, and the generality of the World are able pretty well to distinguish the Gout, Stone, Dropsie, Falling sickness, Palsie, Agues, Pleuresie, Rickets, one from another.

11. But now as for those Casualties, which are aptest to be confounded and mistaken, I shall in the ensuing Discourse presume to touch upon them so far, as the Learning of these Bills hath enabled me.

12. Having premised these general Advertisements, our first Observation upon the Casualties shall be, That in Twenty Years1 ‖ there dying of all Diseases and Casualties 229250, that 711242 died of the Thrush, Convulsion, Rickets, Teeth and Worms; and as Abortives, Chrysomes, Infants, Livergrown, and Overlaid; that is to say, that about ⅓ of the whole died of those Diseases, which we guess did all light upon Children under four or five years old.

13. There died also of the Small Pox, Swine Pox, and Measles, and of Worms without Convulsions, 122103 , of which number we suppose likewise, that about ½ might be Children under six years old. Now, if we consider that sixteen4 of the said 229250 died of that extraordinary and grand Casualty, the Plague, we shall find that about thirty six per Centum of all quick conceptions died before six years old.

14. The second Observation is, That of the said 229250 dying of all Diseases, there died of acute Diseases, (the Plague excepted) but about 50000, or parts. The which proportion doth give a measure of the State, and disposition of this Climate and Air as to health; these acute and Epidemical Diseases happenning suddenly and vehemently, upon the like corruptions and alterations in the Air. ‖

15. The third Observation is, That of the said 229250, about seventy1 died of Chronical Diseases, which shews (as I conceive) the State and Disposition of the Country (including as well its Food as Air) in reference to health, or rather to longevity: for as the proportion of acute and Epidemical Diseases shews the aptness of the Air to sudden and vehement Impressions; so the Chronical Diseases shew the ordinary temper of the place: so that upon the proportion of Chronical Diseases seems to hang the judgment of the fitness of the Country for long life. For, I conceive, that in Countries subject to great Epidemical sweeps, men may live very long, but, where the proportion of the Chronical distempers is great, it is not likely to be so; because men being long sick, and alwaies sickly, cannot live to any great Age, as we see in several sorts of Metal-men, who, although they are less subject to acute Diseases than others, yet seldom live to be old, that is, not to reach unto those years, which David says is the Age of Man.

16. The fourth Observation is, That of the said 229250, not 4000 died of outward Griefs, as of Cancers, Fistula's Sores, Ulcers, broken and bruised Limbs, Imposthumes, Itch, King's Evil, Leprosie, Scald-head, ‖ Swine Pox, Wens, &c. viz. not one in sixty.

17. In the next place, whereas many persons live in great fear and apprehension of some of the more formidable and notorious Diseases following; I shall only set down how many died of each: that the respective numbers, being compared with the total 229250, those persons may the better understand the hazard they are in.

18. In the foregoing Observations we ventured to make a Standard of the healthfulness of the Air from the proportion of acute and Epidemical Diseases, and of the wholsomness of the food, from that of the Chronical. Yet, for as much as neither of them alone do shew the longevity of the Inhabitants, we shall in the next place come to the more absolute Standard and Correction of both, which is the proportion of the Aged, viz. 15757 to the Total 229250. That ‖ is, of about 1 to 15, or 7 per Cent. Only the question is, What number of years the Searchers call Aged, which I conceive must be the same that David calls so, viz. 70. For no man can be said to die properly of Age, who is much less. It follows from hence, That if in any other Country more than seven of the 100 live beyond 70, such Country is to be esteemed more healthful than this of our City.

19. Before we speak of particular Casualties, we shall observe, That among the several Casualties some bear a constant proportion unto the whole number of Burials; such are Chronical Diseases, and the Diseases whereunto the City is most subject; as for Example, Consumptions, Dropsies, Jaundice, Gout, Stone, Palsie, Scurvy, Rising of the Lights or Mother, Rickets, Aged, Agues, Fevers, Bloody Flux and Scowring: nay, some Accidents, as Grief, Drowning, Men's making away themselves, and being Kill'd by several Accidents, &c. do the like; whereas Epidemical and Malignant Diseases, as the Plague, Purples, Spotted Fever, Small Pox and Measles do not keep that equality: so as in some Years, or Months, there died ten times as many as in others. ‖

CHAP. III.

Of Particular Casualties.

1. MY first Observation is, that few are starved. This appears, for that of the 229250, which have died, we find not above fifty one to have been starved, excepting helpless Infants at Nurse, which being caused rather by carelessness, ignorance, and infirmity of the Milch-women, is not properly an effect or sign of want of food in the Country, or of means to get it.

2. The Observation which I shall add hereunto, is, That the vast number of Beggars, swarming up and down this City, do all live, and seem to be most of them healthy and strong; whereupon I make this question, Whether, since they do all live by begging, that is, without any kind of labour; it were not better for the State to keep them, even although they earned nothing? that so they might live regularly, and not in that Debauchery, as many Beggars do; and that they might be cured of their bodily Impotencies, ‖ or taught to work, &c. each according to his condition and capacity; or by being imployed in some work (not better undone) might be accustomed and fitted for labour?

3. To this some may Object, That Beggars are now maintained by voluntary Contributions, whereas in the other way the same must be done by general Tax; and consequently, the Objects of Charity would be removed and taken away.

4. To which we Answer, That in Holland, although no where fewer Beggars appear to charm up commiseration in the credulous, yet no where is there greater or more frequent Charity: only indeed the Magistrate is both the Beggar, and the Disposer of what is got by begging; so as all Givers have a Moral certainty that their Charity shall be well applyed.

5. Moreover, I question, Whether what we give to a Wretch that shews us lamentable sores and mutilations, be alwaies out of the purest Charity? that is, purely for God's sake; for as much as when we see such Objects, we then feel in our selves a kind of pain and passion by consent, of which we ease our selves, when we think we ease them, with whom we sympathised; or else we bespeak aforehand the like commiseration in ‖ others towards our selves, when we shall (as we fear we may) fall into the like distress.

6. We have said, 'Twere better the Publick should keep the Beggars, though they earned nothing, &c. But most men will laugh to hear us suppose, That any able to work (as indeed most Beggars are, in one kind of measure or another) should be kept without earning any thing. But we Answer, That if there be but a certain proportion of work to be done, and that the same be already done by the non-Beggars, then to imploy the Beggars about it, will but transfer the want from one hand to another; nor can a Learner work so cheap as a skilful practised Artist can. As for example, a practised Spinner shall spin a pound of Wool, worth two shillings, for six pence; but a Learner, undertaking it for three pence, shall make the wool indeed into yarn, but not worth twelve pence.

7. This little hint is the model of the greatest work in the World, which is the making of England as considerable for Trade as Holland; for there is but a certain proportion of Trade in the World, and Holland is prepossessed of the greatest part of it, and is thought to have more skill and experience to manage it; wherefore, to bring England into Holland's condition, as to this particular, ‖ is the same, as to send all the Beggars about London into the West Country to Spin, where they shall only spoil the Clothiers Wool, and beggar the present Spinners at best; but, at worst, put the whole Trade of the Country to a stand, until the Hollander, being more ready for it, have snapt that with the rest.

8. My next Observation is, That but few are Murthered, viz. not above 86 of the 229250, which have died of other Diseases and Casualties; whereas in Paris few nights scape without their Tragedy.

9. The Reasons of this we conceive to be Two: One is the Government and Guard of the City by Citizens themselves, and that alternately. No man setling into a Trade for that employment. And the other is, The natural and customary abhorrence of that inhuman Crime, and all Bloodshed, by most English men: for of all that are Executed, few are for Murther. Besides the great and frequent Revolutions and Changes in Government since the Year 1650, have been with little bloodshed; the Usurpers themselves having Executed few in comparison, upon the Accompt of disturbing their Innovations.

10. In brief, when any dead Body is found in England, no Algebraist, or Uncypherer of ‖ Letters, can use more subtile suppositions and variety of conjectures to find out the Demonstration or Cipher, than every common unconcerned person doth to find out the Murtherers, and that for ever, until it be done.

11. The Lunaticks are also but few, viz. 158 in 229250, though I fear many more than are set down in our Bills, few being entred for such, but those who die at Bedlam; and there all seem to dye of their Lunacy, who died Lunaticks; for there is much difference in computing the number of Lunaticks, that die (though of Fevers and all other Diseases, unto which Lunacy is no Supersedeas) and those that dye by reason of their Madness.

12. So that, this Casualty being so uncertain, I shall not force my self to make any inference from the numbers and proportions we find in our Bills concerning it: only I dare ensure any man at this present, well in his Wits, for one in a thousand, that he shall not dye a Lunatick in Bedlam within these seven years, because I find not above one in about one thousand five hundred have done so.

13. The like use may be made of the Accompts of men that made away themselves, ‖ who are another sort of Mad men, that think to ease themselves of pain by leaping into Hell; or else are yet more Mad, so as to think there is no such place; or that men may go to rest by death, though they dye in Self-murther, the greatest Sin.

14. We shall say nothing of the numbers of those that have been Drowned, Killed by falls from Scaffolds, or by Carts running over them, &c. because the same depends upon the casual Trade and Employment of men, and upon matters which are but circumstantial to the Seasons and Regions we live in, and affords little of that Science and Certainty we aim at.

15. We find one Casualty in our Bills, of which, though there be daily talk, there is little effect, much like our abhorrence of Toads and Snakes as most poisonous Creatures, whereas few men dare say upon their own knowledge they ever found harm by either; and this Casualty is the French Pox, gotten, for the most part, not so much by the intemperate use of Venery (which rather causeth the Gout) as of many common Women.

16. I say, the Bills of Mortality would take off these Bars, which keep some men within bounds, as to these extravagancies: for in ‖ the aforementioned 229250, we find not above 392 to have died of the Pox. Now, forasmuch as it is not good to let the World be lulled into a security and belief of Impunity by our Bills, which we intend shall not be only as Deaths heads to put men in mind of their Mortality, but also as Mercurial Statues to point out the most dangerous waies that lead us into it and misery; We shall therefore shew, that the Pox is not as the Toads and Snakes aforementioned, but of a quite contrary nature, together with the reason why it appears otherwise.

17. Forasmuch as by the ordinary discourse of the World it seems a great part of men have, at one time or other, had some species of this Disease, I wondering why so few died of it, especially because I could not take that to be so harmless, whereof so many complained very fiercely; upon enquiry, I found that those who died of it out of the Hospitals (especially that of Kingsland, and the Lock in Southwark) were returned of Ulcers and Sores. And in brief, I found, that all mentioned to dye of the French Pox were returned by the Clerks of Saint Giles's and Saint Martin's in the Fields only, in which place I understood that most of the vilest and most miserable Houses of ‖ Uncleanness were: from whence I concluded, that only hated persons, and such, whose very Noses were eaten off, were reported by the Searchers to have died of this too frequent Malady.

18. In the next place, it shall be examined, under what Name or Casualty such as die of these Diseases are brought in: I say, under the Consumption; forasmuch as all dying thereof dye so emaciated and lean (their Ulcers disappearing upon Death) that the Old-women Searchers, after the mist of a Cup of Ale, and the bribe of a Two-groat fee, in stead of one given them1 , cannot tell whether this emaciation or leanness were from a Phthisis, or from an Hectick Fever, Atrophy, &c. or from an Infection of the Spermatick parts, which in length of time, and in various disguises hath at last vitiated the habit of the Body, and by disabling the parts to digest their nourishment, brought them to the condition of leanness abovementioned.

19. My next Observation is, That of the Rickets we find no mention among the Casualties, until the Year 1634, and then but of 14 for that whole Year.

20. Now the Question is, Whether that Disease did first appear about that time; or whether a Disease, which had been long ‖ before, did then first receive its Name?

21. To clear this Difficulty out of the Bills (for I dare venture on no deeper Arguments) I enquired what other Casualtie before the Year 1634, named in the Bills, was most like the Rickets; and found, not only by Pretenders to know it, but also from other Bills, that Livergrown was the nearest. For in some years I find Livergrown, Spleen, and Rickets, put all together, by reason (as I conceive) of their likeness to each other. Hereupon I added the Livergrowns of the Year 1634, viz. 77, to the Rickets of the same Year, viz. 14, making in all 91; which Total, as also the Number 77 it self, I compared with the Livergrown of the precedent Year 1633, viz. 82: All which shewed me, that the Rickets was a new Disease over and above.

22. Now, this being but a faint Argument, I looked both forwards and backwards, and found, that in the Year 1629, when no Rickets appeared, there were but 94 Livergrowns; and in the Year 1636 there were 99 Livergrown, although there were also 50 of the Rickets: only this is not to be denied, that when the Rickets grew very numerous (as in the Year 1660, viz. 521) then there appeared not above 15 of Livergrown. ‖

23. In the Year 1659 were 441 Rickets, and 8 Livergrown. In the Year 1658 were 476 Rickets, and 51 Livergrown. Now, though it be granted that these Diseases were confounded in the Judgment of the Nurses, yet it is most certain, that the Livergrown did never but once, viz. Anno 1630 exceed 100; whereas Anno 1660, Livergrown and Rickets were 536.

24. It is also to be observed, That the Rickets were never more numerous than now, and that they are still increasing; for Anno 1649, there were but 190, next year 260, next after that 329, and so forwards, with some little starting backwards in some years, until the Year 1660, which produced the greatest of all.

25. Now, such back-startings seem to be universal in all things; for we do not only see in the progressive motion of the wheels of Watches, and in the rowing of Boats, that there is a little starting or jerking backwards between every step forwards, but also (if I am not much deceived) there appeared the like in the motion of the Moon, which in the long Telescopes at Gresham Colledge one may sensibly discern1 . ‖

26. There seems also to be another new Disease, called by our Bills The stopping of the Stomach, first mentioned in the Year 1636, the which Malady, from that Year to 1647, increased but from 6 to 29; Anno 1655 it came to 145. In 57, to 277. In 60 to 314. Now these proportions far exceeding the difference of proportion generally arising from the increase of Inhabitants, and from the resort of Advenæ to the City, shews there is some new Disease, which appeareth to the Vulgar, as A stopping of the Stomach.

27. Hereupon I apprehended that this Stopping might be the Green sickness, forasmuch as I find few or none to have been returned upon that Account, although many be visibly stained with it. Now, whether the same be forborn out of shame, I know not: For since the World believes that Marriage cures it, it may seem indeed a shame, that any Maid should dye uncured, when there are more Males than Females, that is, an overplus of Husbands to all that can be Wives.

28. In the next place, I conjectured that this stopping of the Stomach might be the Mother, forasmuch as I have heard of many troubled with Mother fits (as they call them) ‖ although few returned to have died of them; which conjecture, if it be true, we may then safely say, That the Mother-fits have also increased.

29. I was somewhat taken off from thinking this stopping of the Stomach to be the Mother, because I ghessed rather the Rising of the Lights might be it. For I remembred that some Women, troubled with the Mother-fits, did complain of a choaking in their Throats. Now, as I understand, it is more conceivable, that the Lights or Lungs (which I have heard called The Bellows of the Body) not blowing, that is, neither venting out, nor taking in breath, might rather cause such a Choking, than the Mother should rise up thither, and do it. For methinks, when a Woman is with Child, there is a greater rising, and yet no such Fits at all.

30. But what I have said of the Rickets and stopping of the Stomach, I do in some measure say of the Rising of the Lights also, viz. that these Risings (be they what they will) have increased much above the general proportion; for in 1629 there were but 44, and in 1660, 249, viz. almost six times as many. ‖

31. Now forasmuch as Rickets appear much in the Over-growing of Childrens Livers and Spleens (as by the Bills may appear) which surely may cause stopping of the Stomach by squeezing and crowding upon that part. And forasmuch as these Chokings or Risings of the Lights may proceed from the same stuffings, as make the Liver and Spleen to overgrow their due proportion. And lastly, forasmuch as the Rickets, stopping of the Stomach, and rising of the Lights, have all increased together, and in some kind of correspondent proportions; it seems to me that they depend one upon another, And that what is the Rickets in Children, may be the other in more grown Bodies; for surely Children, which recover of the Rickets, may retain somewhat to cause what I have imagined: but of this let the Learned Physicians consider, as I presume they have.

32. I had not medled thus far, but that I have heard, the first hints of the circulation of the Blood were taken from a common Person's wondering what became of all the blood which issued out of the heart, since the heart beats above three thousand times an hour, although but one drop should be pump'd out of it at every stroke. ‖

33. The Stone seemed to decrease: for in 1632, 33, 34, 35, and 36, there died of the Stone and Strangury 254. And in the Years 1655, 56, 57, 58, 59, and 1660, but 250, which numbers, although indeed they be almost equal, yet considering the Burials of the first named five Years were but half those of the later, it seems to be decreased by about one half.

34. Now the Stone and Strangury are Diseases which most men know that feel them, unless it be in some few cases, where (as I have heard Physicians say) a Stone is held up by the Films of the Bladder, and so kept from grating or offending it.

35. The Gout stands much at a stay, that is, it answers the general proportion of Burials; there dies not above one of 1000 of the Gout, although I believe that more dye Gouty. The reason is, because those that have the Gout, are said to be long livers; and therefore, when such dye, they are returned as Aged.

36. The Scurvy hath likewise increased, and that gradually from 12, Anno 1629, to 95, Anno 1660.

37. The Tyssick seems to be quite worn away, but that it is probable the same is entred as Cough or Consumption. ‖

[38]. Agues and Fevers are entred promiscuously, yet in the few Bills wherein they have been distinguished, it appears that not above 1 in 40 of the whole are Agues.

39. The Abortives and Stilborn are about the twentieth part of those that are Christned, and the numbers seemed the same thirty Years ago as now, which shews there were more in proportion in those years than now: or else that in these later years due Accompts have not been kept of the Abortives, as having been buried without notice, and perhaps not in Church-yards.

40. For that there hath been a neglect in the Accompts of the Christnings, is most certain, because until the Year 1642, we find the Burials but equal with the Christnings, or near thereabouts, but in 1648, when the differences in Religion had changed the Government, the Christnings were but two thirds of the Burials. And in the Year 1659, not half, viz. the Burials were 14720 (of the Plague but 36) and the Christnings were but 5670; which great disproportion could be from no other Cause than that abovementioned, forasmuch as the same grew as the Confusions and Changes grew. ‖

41. Moreover, although the Bills give us in Anno 1659, but 5670 Christnings, yet they give us 421 Abortives, and 226 dying in Child-bed; whereas in the Year 1631, when the Abortives were 410, that is, near the number of the Year 1659, the Christnings were 8288. Wherefore by the proportion of Abortives, Anno 1659, the Christnings should have been about 8500: but if we shall reckon by the Women dying in Childbed, of whom a better Accompt is kept than of Stilborns and Abortives, we shall find Anno 1659, there were 226 Childbeds; and Anno 1631, 112, viz. not ½: Wherefore I conceive that the true number of the Christnings, Anno 1659, is above double to the 5690 set down in our Bills; that is, about 11500, and then the Christnings will come near the same proportion to the Burials, as hath been observed in former times.

42. In regular Times, when Accompts were well kept, we find that not above three in 200 died in Childbed, and that the number of Abortives was about treble to that of the Women dying in Childbed: from whence we may probably collect, that not one Woman of an hundred (I may say of two hundred) dies in her Labour; forasmuch as there be other Causes of a Womans dying with-in ‖ the Month, than the hardness of her Labour.

43. If this be true in these Countries, where Women hinder the facility of their Child-bearing by affected straitening of their Bodies; then certainly in America, where the same is not practised, Nature is little more to be taxed as to Woman, than in Brutes, among whom not one in some thousands do dye of their Deliveries: what I have heard of the Irish women confirms me herein.

44. Before we quite leave this matter, we shall insert the Causes, why the Accompt of Christnings hath been neglected more than that of Burials: one, and the chief whereof, was a Religious Opinion against Baptizing of Infants, either as unlawful, or unnecessary. If this were the only reason, we might by our defects of this kind conclude the growth of this Opinion, and pronounce, that not half the People of England, between the years 1650 and 1660, were convinced of the need of Baptizing.

45. A second Reason was, The scruples which many publick Ministers would make of the worthiness of Parents to have their Children Baptized, which forced such questioned Parents, who did also not believe the necessity of having their Children baptized ‖ by such Scruplers, to carry their Children unto such other Ministers, as having performed the thing, had not the Authority or Command of the Register to enter the Names of the baptized.

46. A third Reason was, That a little Fee was to be paid for the Registry1 .

47. Upon the whole matter it is most certain, That the number of Heterodox Believers was very great between the said year 1650 and 1660; and so peevish were they, as not to have the Births of their Children Registred, although thereby the time of their coming of Age might be known, in respect of such Inheritances as might belong unto them; and withal, by such Registring it would have appeared unto what Parish each Child had belonged, in case any of them should happen to want its relief.

48. Of Convulsions there appeared very few, viz. but 52 in the year 1629, which in 1636 grew to 709, keeping about that stay till 1659, though sometimes rising to about 1000.

49. It is to be noted, That from 1629 to 1636, when the Convulsions were but few, the number of Chrysoms and Infants was greater: for in 1629, there were of Chrysoms and Infants 2596, and of the Convulsion 52, ‖ viz. of both 2648. And in 1636 there were of Infants 1895, and of the Convulsions 709; in both 2604, by which it appears, that this difference is likely to be only a confusion in the Accounts.

50. Moreover, we find that for these later years, since 1636, the total of Convulsions and Chrysoms added together are much less, viz. by about 400 or 500 per Annum, than the like Totals from 1629 to 36, which makes me think, that Teeth also were thrust in under the Title of Chrysoms and Infants, inasmuch as in the said years, from 1629 to 1636, the number of Worms and Teeth wants by above 400 per Annum of what we find in following years. ‖

CHAP. IV. Of the Plague.

1. BEfore we leave to discourse of the Casualties, we shall add something concerning that greatest Disease or Casualty of all, The Plague.

There have been in London, within this Age, four times of great Mortality, that is to say, the years 1592 and 1593, 1603, 1625 and 1636.

1

2. Now it is manifest of it self, in which of these years most died; but in which of them was the greatest Mortality of all Diseases in general, or of the Plague in particular, we discover thus. In the Years 1592, and 1636, we find the proportion of those dying of the Plague in the whole to be near alike, that is, about 10 to 23, or 11 to 25, or as about 2 to 5.

3. In the Year 1625, we find the Plague to bear unto the whole in proportion as 35 to 51, or 7 to 10, that is almost the triplicate of the former proportion; for the Cube of 7 being 343, and the Cube of 10 being 1000, the said 343 is not ⅕1 of 1000.

4. In Anno 1603, the proportion of the Plague to the whole was as 30 to 37, viz. as 4 to 5, which is yet greater than the last of 7 to 202 : For if the year 1625 had been as great a Plague year as 1603, there must have died not only 7 to 10, but 8 to 10, which in those great numbers makes a vast difference.

5. We must therefore conclude the year 1603 to have been the greatest Plague year of this Age.

6. Now to know in which of these four was the greatest Mortality at large, we reason thus: ‖

7. From whence it appears, That Anno 1636, the Christnings were about ⅖ parts of the Burials: Anno 1592 but ⅕; but in the year 1603, and 1625, not above an eighth: so that the said two years were the years of greatest Mortality. We said that the year 1603 was the greatest Plague year. And now we say, that the same was not a greater year of Mortality than Anno 1625. Now to reconcile these two Positions, we must alledge, that Anno 1625, there was an errour in the Accompts or Distinctions of the Casualties; that is, more died of the Plague than were re-counted ‖ for under that name. Which Allegation we also prove thus, viz.

8. In the said year 1625 there are said to have died of the Plague 35417, and of all other Diseases 18848; whereas in the years, both before and after the same, the ordinary number of Burials was between 7 and 8000; so that if we add about 11000 (which is the difference between 7 and 18) to our 35, the whole will be 46000, which bears to the whole 54000, as about 4 to 5, thereby rendring the said year 1625 to be as great a Plague-year as that of 1603, and no greater; which answers to what we proved before, viz. that the Mortality of the two years was equal1 .

9. From whence we may probably suspect, that about ¼ part more died of the Plague than are returned for such; which we further prove by noting, that Anno 1636 there died 10400 of the Plague, the ¼ whereof is 2600 Now there are said to have died of all other Diseases that Year 12959, out of which number deducting 2600, there remain 10359, more than which there died not in several years next before and after the said Year 1636.

10. The next Observation we shall offer is, That the Plague of 1603 lasted eight Years. ‖ In some whereof there died above 4000, in others above 2000, and in but one fewer than 600: whereas in the Year 1624 next preceding, and in the Year 1626 next following the said great Plague-year 1625, there died in the former but 11, and in the later but 134 of the Plague. Moreover, in the said Year 1625, the Plague decreased from its utmost number 4461 a week, to below 1000 within six weeks.

11. The Plague of 1636 lasted twelve Years, in eight whereof there died 2000 per annum one with another, and never under 300. The which shews, that the Contagion of the Plague depends more upon the Disposition of the Air, than upon the Effluvia from the Bodies of men.

12. Which also we prove by the suddain jumps which the Plague hath made, leaping in one Week from 118 to 927; and back again from 993 to 258; and from thence again the very next Week to 852. The which Effects must surely be rather attributed to change of the Air, than of the Constitution of Mens Bodies, otherwise than as this depends upon that.

13. It may be also noted, That many times other Pestilential Diseases, as Purple Fevers, Small-Pox, &c. do fore-run the Plague a ‖ Year, two or three; for in 1622 there died but 8000: in 1623, 11000: in 1624, about 12000: till in 1625 there died of all Diseases above 54000.

CHAP. V.

Other Observations upon the Plague, and Casualties.

1. THE Decrease and Increase of People is to be reckoned chiefly by Christenings, because few bear Children in London but Inhabitants, though others die there. The Accounts of Christenings were well kept, until differences in Religion occasioned some neglect therein, although even these neglects we must confess to have been regular and proportionable.

2. By the numbers and proportions of Christenings therefore we observe as followeth, viz.

First, That (when from December 1602, to March following, there was little or no Plague) then the Christenings at a Medium were between 110 and 130 per Week, few ‖ Weeks being above the one, or below the other; but when from thence to July the Plague increased, that then the Christenings decreased to under 90.

Secondly, The Question is, Whether Teeming-Women died, or fled, or miscarried? The latter at this time seems most probable, because even in the said space, between March and July, there died not above 20 per Week of the Plague; which small number could neither cause the death or flight of so many Women, as to alter the proportion ¼ part lower.

3. Moreover, We observe from the 21 of July to the 12 of October, the Plague increasing reduced the Christenings to 70 at a Medium, diminishing the above proportion down to ⅖. Now the cause of this must be flying, and death, as well as Miscarriages and Abortions; for there died within that time about 25000, whereof many were certainly Women-with child: besides, the fright of so many dying within so small a time, might drive away so many others, as to cause this Effect.

4. From December 1624, to the middle of April 1625, there died not above five a Week of the Plague, one with another. In this time, the Christenings were one with another ‖ 180. The which decreased gradually by the 22 of September to 75, or from the proportion of 12 to 5, which evidently squares with our former Observation.

5. The next Observation we shall offer is, The time wherein the City hath been Re-peopled after a great Plague; which we affirm to be by the second year. For in 1627 the Christenings (which are our Standard in this Case) were 8408, which in 1624, next preceding the Plague-year 1625 (that had swept away above 54000) were but 8299; and the Christenings of 1626 (which were but 6701) mounted in one year to the said 8408.

6. Now the Cause hereof, forasmuch as it cannot be a supply by Procreations; Ergo, it must be by new Affluxes to London out of the Country.

7. We might fortifie this Assertion by shewing, that before the Plague-year 1603, the Christenings were about 6000, which were in that very year reduced to 4789, but crept up the next year 1604 to 5458, recovering their former ordinary proportion in 1605 of 6504, about which proportion it stood till the year 1610.

8. I say, it followeth, that, let the Mortality be what it will, the City repairs its loss of Inhabitants within two years; which Observation ‖ lessens the Objection made against the value of Houses in London, as if they were liable to great prejudice through the loss of Inhabitants by the Plague.

CHAP. VI.

Of the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of Seasons.

1. HAving spoken of Casualties, we come next to compare the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of the several Years and Seasons one with another. And first, having in the Chapters afore going mentioned the several years of Plague, we shall next present the several other sickly years; we meaning by a sickly Year such wherein the Burials exceed those, both of the precedent and subsequent years, and not above two hundred dying of the Plague, for such we call Plague-Years; and this we do, that the World may see, by what spaces and intervals we may hereafter expect such times again. Now, we may not call that a more sickly year, wherein more die, because such excess of Burials ‖ may proceed from increase and access of People to the City only.

2. Such sickly years were 1618, 20, 23, 24, 1632, 33, 34, 1649, 52, 54, 56, 58, 61, as may be seen by the Tables1 .

3. In reference to this Observation we shall present another, namely, That the more sickly the years are, the less fecund or fruitful of Children also they be. Which will appear, if the number of Children born in the said sickly years be less than that of the years both next preceding and next following: all which, upon view of the Tables, will be found true, except in a very few Cases, where sometimes the precedent, and sometimes the subsequent years vary a little, but never both together. Moreover, for the confirmation of this Truth, we present you the year 1660, where the Burials were fewer than in either of the two next precedent years by 2000, and fewer than in the subsequent by above 4000: And withal, the number of Christenings in the said year 1660 was far greater than in any of the three years next afore-going.

4. As to this year 1660, although we would not be thought Superstitious, yet it is not to be neglected, that in the said year was the King's Restauration to His Empire over these three Nations, as if God Almighty had ‖ caused the healthfulness and fruitfulness thereof to repair the Bloodshed and Calamities suffered in His absence. I say, this conceit doth abundantly counterpoise the Opinion of those who think great Plagues come in with King's Reigns1 , because it hapned so twice, viz. Anno 1603, and 1625; whereas as well the year 1648, wherein the present King commenced His Right to reign, as also the year 1660. wherein He commenced the exercise of the same, were both eminently healthful: which clears both Monarchy, and our present King's Family, from what seditious men have surmised against them.

5. The Diseases, which beside the Plague make years unhealthful in this City, are Spotted-Fevers, Small-Pox, Dysentery, called by some The Plague in the Guts, and the unhealthful Season is the Autumn. ‖

CHAP. VII.

Of the difference between Burials and Christenings.

1. THE next Observation is, That in the said Bills there are far more Burials than Christenings. This is plain, depending only upon Arithmetical computation; for, in 40 years from the year 1603, to the year 1644, exclusive of both years, there have been set down (as hapning within the same ground, space, or Parishes1 ) although differently numbred and divided, 363935 Burials, and but 330747 Christenings within the 97, 16, and 10 Out Parishes; those of Westminster, Lambeth, Newington, Redriff, Stepney, Hackney, and Islington, not being included.

2. From this single Observation it will follow, That London should have decreased in its People; the contrary whereof we see by its daily increase of Buildings upon new Foundations, and by the turning of great Palacious Houses into small Tenements. It is therefore ‖ certain, that London is supplied with People from out of the Country, whereby not only to supply the overplus differences of Burials abovementioned, but likewise to increase its Inhabitants according to the said increase of housing.

3. This supplying of London seems to be the reason, why Winchester, Lincoln, and several other Cities have decreased in their Buildings, and consequently in their Inhabitants. The same may be suspected of many Towns in Cornwal, and other places, which probably, when they were first allowed to send Burgesses to the Parliament, were more populous than now, and bore another proportion to London than now; for several of those Burroughs send two Burgesses, whereas London it self sends but four, although it bears the fifteenth part of the charge of the whole Nation in all Publick Taxes and Levies2 .

4. But, if we consider what I have upon exact enquiry found true, viz. That in the Country3 , within ninety years, there have been 6339 Christenings, and but 5280 Burials, the increase of London will be salved without inferring the decrease of the People in the Country; and withal, in case all England have but fourteen times more People than ‖ London, it will appear, how the said increase of the Country may increase the People, both of London and it self; for if there be in the 97, 16, 10, and 7 Parishes, usually comprehended within our Bills, but 460000 Souls, as hereafter we shall shew1 , then there are in all England and Wales 6440000 Persons, out of which subtract 460000, for those in and about London, there remain 5980000 in the Country, the which increasing about part in 40 years. as we shall hereafter prove2 doth happen in the Country, the whole increase of the Country will be about 854000 in the said time; out of which number, if but about 250000 be sent up to London in the said 40 years, viz. about 6000 per Annum, the said Missions will make good the alterations, which we find to have been in and about London, between the years 1603 and 1644 above-mentioned: But that 250000 will do the same, I prove thus; viz. in the 8 years, from 1603 to 1612, the Burials in all the Parishes, and of all Diseases, the Plague included, were at a Medium 9750 per Annum. And between 1635 and 1644 were 18000, the difference whereof is 8250, which is the Total of the increase of the Burials in 40 years, that is, about 206 per Annum. Now, to make the Burials increase 206 per Annum, there must ‖ be added to the City 30 times as many (according to the proportion of 3 dying out of 11 Families)3viz. 6180 Advenæ, the which number multiplied again by the 40 years, makes the Product 247200, which is less than the 250000 above-propounded; so as there remain above 600000 of increase in the Country within the said 40 years, either to render it more populous, or send forth into other Colonies, or Wars. But that England hath fourteen times more People, is not improbable, for the Reasons following.

1. London is observed to bear about the fifteenth proportion of the whole Tax.

2. There are in England and Wales about 39000 square Miles of Land, and we have computed that in one of the greatest Parishes in Hantshire, being also a Market-Town, and containing twelve square Miles, there are 220 Souls in every square Mile, out of which I abate ¼ for the over-plus of People more in that Parish than in other wild Counties. So as the ¾ parts of the said 220, multiplied by the Total of square Miles, produces 64000001 Souls in all London included.

3. There are about 10000 Parishes in England and Wales, the which, although they should not contain the ⅓ part of the Land, nor the ¼ of the People of that Country-Parish, ‖ which we have examined, yet may be supposed to contain about 600 People, one with another: according to which Account there will be six Millions of People in the Nation. I might add, that there are in England and Wales about five and twenty Millions of Acres at 16½ Foot to the Perch; and if there be six Millions of People, then there is about four Acres for every head, which how well it agrees to the Rules of Plantation, I leave unto others, not only as a means to examine my Assertion, but as an hint to their enquiry concerning the fundamental Trade, which is Husbandry, and Plantation.

4. Upon the whole matter we may therefore conclude, That the People of the whole Nation do increase, and consequently the decrease of Winchester, Lincoln, and other like places, must be attributed to other Reasons, than that of re-furnishing London only.

5. We come to shew, why although in the Country the Christenings exceed the Burials, yet in London they do not. The general Reason of this must be, that in London the proportion of those subject to die, unto those capable of breeding, is greater than in the Country; That is, let there be an hundred Persons in London, and as many in the Country; we say, that, if there be sixty of them ‖ Breeders in London, there are more than sixty in the Country, or else we must say, that London is more unhealthful, or that it inclines Men and Women more to Barrenness, than the Country: which by comparing the Burials and Christenings of Hackney, Newington, and the other Country-Parishes, with the most Smoky and Stinking parts of the City, is scarce discernible in any considerable degree.

6. Now that the Breeders in London are proportionably fewer than those in the Country, arises from these Reasons, viz.

1. All, that have business to the Court of the King, or to the Courts of Justice, and all Country-men coming up to bring Provisions to the City, or to buy Forein Commodities, Manufactures, and Rarities, do for the most part leave their Wives in the Country.

2. Persons coming to live in London out of curiosity and pleasure, as also such as would retire and live privately, do the same if they have any.

3. Such as come up to be cured of Diseases do scarce use their Wives pro tempore.

4. That many Apprentices of London, who are bound seven or nine years from Marriage, do often stay longer voluntarily. ‖

5. That many Sea-men of London leave their Wives behind them, who are more subject to die in the absence of their Husbands, than to breed either without men, or with the use of many promiscuously.

6. As for unhealthiness, it may well be supposed, that although seasoned Bodies may, and do live near as long in london, as elsewhere, yet new-comers and Children do not: for the Smoaks, Stinks, and close Air, are less healthful than that of the Country; otherwise why do sickly Persons remove into the Country-Air? And why are there more old men in Countries than in London, per rata? And although the difference in Hackucy and Newington, above-mentioned, be not very notorious, yet the reason may be their vicinity to London, and that the Inhabitants are most such, whose Bodies have first been impaired with the London-Air, before they withdraw thither.

7. As to the causes of Barrenness in London, I say, that although there should be none extraordinary in the Native Air of the place; yet the intemperance in feeding, and especially the Adulteries and Fornications, supposed more frequent in London than elsewhere, do certainly hinder Breeding. For a Woman, admitting ten Men, is so far from ‖ having ten times as many Children, that she hath none at all.

8. Add to this, that the minds of men in London are more thoughful, and full of business, than in the Country, where their work is corporal Labour and Exercises; All which promote Breeding, whereas Anxieties of the mind hinder it.

CHAP. VIII.

Of the difference between the numbers of Males and Females.

THE next Observation is, That there be more Males than Females1 .

1. There have been Buried from the year 1628, to the year 1662, exclusive, 209436 Males, and but 190474 Females: but it will be objected, That in London it may be indeed so, though otherwise elsewhere; because London is the great Stage and Shop of business, wherein the Masculine Sex bears the greatest part. But we Answer, That there have been also Christened within the same time 139782 Males, and but 130866 Females, and that ‖ the Country-Accounts are consonant enough to those of London upon this matter2 .

2. What the Causes hereof are, we shall not trouble our selves to conjecture, as in other Cases: only we shall desire, that Travellers would enquire, whether it be the same in other Countries.

3. We should have given an Account, how in every Age these proportions change here, but that we have Bills of distinction but for 32 years, so that we shall pass from hence to some Inferences from this Conclusion; as first,

I. That Christian Religion, prohibiting Polygamy, is more agreeable to the Law of Nature, that is, the Law of God, than Mahumetism, and others, that allow it: for one Man his having many Women, or Wives, by Law, signifies nothing, unless there were many Women to one Man in Nature also.

II. The obvious Objection hereunto is, That one Horse, Bull, or Ram, having each of them many Females, do promote increase. To which I Answer, That although perhaps there be naturally, even of these species, more Males than Females, yet artificially, that is, by making Geldings, Oxen, and Weathers, there are fewer. From whence it will follow, That when by experience it is found how many ‖ Ews (suppose twenty) one Ram will serve, we may know what proportion of male-Lambs to castrate or geld, viz. nineteen, or thereabouts: for if you emasculate fewer, viz. but ten, you shall, by promiscuous copulation of each of those ten with two Females, hinder the increase, so far as the admittance of two Males will do it: but, if you castrate none at all, it is highly probable, that, every of the twenty Males copulating with every of the twenty Females, there will be little or no conception in any of them all.

III. And this I take to be the truest Reason, why Foxes, Wolves, and other Vermin Animals, that are not gelt, increase not faster than Sheep, when as so many thousands of these are daily Butchered, and very few of the other die otherwise than of themselves.

4. We have hitherto said, There are more Males than Females; we say next, That the one exceed the other by about a thirteenth part. So that although more Men die violent deaths than Women, that is, more are slain in Wars, killed by Mischance, drowned at Sea, and die by the Hand of Justice; moreover, more Men go to Colonies, and travel into Forein parts, than Women; and lastly, more remain unmarried than of Women, as Fellows of Colleges, and Apprentices above eighteen, ‖ &c. yet the said thirteenth part difference bringeth the business but to such a pass, that every Woman may have an Husband, without the allowance of Polygamy.

5. Moreover, although a Man be Prolifick fourty years, and a Woman but five and twenty, which makes the Males to be as 560 to 325 Females, yet the causes above-named, and the later marriage of the Men, reduce all to an equality.

6. It appearing, that there were fourteen Men to thirteen Women, and that they die in the same proportion also; yet I have heard Physicians say, that they have two Women Patients to one Man, which Assertion seems very likely; for that Women have either the Green-sickness, or other like Distempers, are sick of Breedings, Abortions, Child-bearing, Sore-breasts, Whites, Obstructions, Fits of the Mother, and the like.

7. Now from this it should follow, that more Women should die than Men, if the number of Burials answered in proportion to that of Sicknesses: but this must be salved, either by the alleging, that the Physicians cure those Sicknesses, so as few more die than if none were sick; or else that Men, being more intemperate than Women, die as much by reason of their Vices, as Women do by the Infirmity ‖ of their Sex; and consequently, more Males being born than Females, more also die.

8. In the year 1642 many Males went out of London into the Wars then beginning, insomuch as I expected in the succeeding year 1643 to have found the Burials of Females to have exceeded those of Males, but no alteration appeared; forasmuch, as I suppose, Trading continuing the same in London, all those, who lost their Apprentices, had others out of the Country; and if any left their Trades and Shops, that others forthwith succeeded them: for, if employment for hands remain the same, no doubt but the number of them could not long continue in disproportion.

9. Another pregnant Argument to the same purpose (which hath already been touched on) is, That although in the very year of the Plague the Christenings decreased, by the dying and flying of Teeming-Women, yet the very next year after they increased somewhat, but the second after to as full a number as in the second year before the said Plague: for I say again, if there be encouragement for an hundred in London, that is, a Way how an hundred may live better than in the Country, and if there be void Housing there to receive ‖ them, the evacuating of a fourth or third part of that number must soon be supplied out of the Country; so as the great Plague doth not lessen the Inhabitants of the City, but of the Country, who in a short time remove themselves from thence hither, so long, until the City, for want of receipt and encouragement, regurgitates and sends them back.

10. From the difference between Males and Females, we see the reason of making Eunuchs in those places where Polygamy is allowed, the later being useless as to multiplication, without the former, as was said before in case of Sheep and other Animals usually gelt in these Countries.

11. By consequence, this practice of Castration serves as well to promote increase, as to meliorate the Flesh of those Beasts that suffer it For that Operation is equally practised upon Horses, which are not used for food, as upon those that are.

12. In Popish Countries, where Polygamy is forbidden, if a greater number of Males oblige themselves to Cælibate, than the natural over-plus, or difference between them and Females amounts unto; then multiplication is hindred: for if there be eight Men to ten Women, all of which eight Men are married to eight of the ten Women, then the other two ‖ bear no Children, as either admitting no Man at all, or else admitting Men as Whores (that is, more than one;) which commonly procreates no more than if none at all had been used: or else such unlawful Copulations beget Conceptions, but to frustrate them by procured Abortions, or secret Murthers; all which returns to the same reckoning. Now, if the same proportion of Women oblige themselves to a single life likewise, then such obligation makes no change in this matter of increase.

13. From what hath been said appears the reason, why the Law is and ought to be so strict against Fornications and Adulteries: for, if there were universal liberty, the Increase of Mankind would be but like that of Foxes at best.

14. Now forasmuch as Princes are not only Powerful, but Rich, according to the number of their People (Hands being the Father, as Lands are the Mother and Womb of Wealth)1 it is no wonder why States, by encouraging Marriage, and hindering Licentiousness, advance their own Interest, as well as preserve the Laws of God from contempt and violation.

15. It is a Blessing to Mankind, that by this over-plus of Males there is this natural ‖ Bar to Polygamy.: for in such a state Women could not live in that parity and equality of expense with their Husbands, as now, and here they do.

16. The reason whereof is, not, that the Husband cannot maintain as splendidly three, as one; for he might, having three Wives, live himself upon a quarter of his Income, that is, in a parity with all three, as well as, having but one, live in the same parity at half with her alone: but rather, because that to keep them all quiet with each other, and himself, he must keep them all in greater aw, and less splendour; which power he having, he will probably use it to keep them all as low as he pleases, and at no more cost than makes for his own pleasure; the poorest Subjects, (such as this plurality of Wives must be) being most easily governed. ‖

CHAP. IX.

Of the growth of the City.

1. IN the year 1593 there died in the ninety seven Parishes within the walls, and the sixteen without the walls (besides 421 of the Plague) 3508. And the next year 3478, besides 29 of the Plague: in both years 6986. Twenty years after there died in the same ninety seven, and sixteen Parishes, 12110, viz. Anno 1614, 5873; and Anno 1615, 6237: so as the said Parishes are increased, in the said time, from seven to twelve, or very near thereabouts.

2. Moreover, the Burials within the like space of the next twenty years, viz. Anno 1634 and 1635, were 15625, viz. as about twenty four to thirty one: the which last of the three numbers, 15625, is much more than double to the first 6986; viz. the said Parishes have in fourty years increased from twenty three to fifty two.

3. Where is to be noted, That although we were necessitated to compound the said ‖ ninety seven with the sixteen Parishes, yet the sixteen Parishes have increased faster than the ninety seven. For. in the year 1620, there died within the walls 2726, and in 1660 there died but 3098 (both years being clear of the Plague:) so as in this fourty years the said ninety seven Parishes have increased but from nine to ten, or thereabouts, because the Housing of the said ninety seven Parishes could be no otherwise increased, than by turning great Houses into Tenements, and building upon a few Gardens.

4. In the year 1604 there died in the ninety seven Parishes 1518, and of the Plague 280. And in the year 1660, 3098, and none of the Plague; so as in fifty six years the said Parishes have doubled. Where note, That forasmuch as in the said year 1604 was the very next year after the great Plague 1603 (when the City was not yet re-peopled) we shall rather make the comparison between 2014, which died Anno 1605, and 3431 Anno 1659 choosing rather from hence to assert, That the said ninety seven and sixteen Parishes increased from twenty to thirty four, or from ten to seventeen in fifty four years, than from one to two in fifty six, as in the last aforegoing Paragraph is set down. ‖

5 Anno 1605 there died in the sixteen Out-Parishes 2974, and Anno 1659, 6988: so as in the fifty four years the said Parishes have increased from three to seven.

6. Anno 1605 there died in the eight Out-Parishes 960, Anno 1659 there died in the same scope of Ground, although called now ten Parishes (the Savoy and Covent-Garden1 being added) 4301: so as the said Parishes have increased, within the said fifty four years, more than from one to four.

7. Moreover, there were Buried in all, Anno 1605, 5948, and Anno 1659, 14720, viz. about two to five.

8. Having set down the proportions, wherein we find the said three great Divisions of the whole Pyle, called London, to have increased; we come next to shew what particular Parishes have had the most remarkable share in these Aug-mentations. Viz. of the ninety seven Parishes within the Walls the increase is not discernible, but where great Houses, formerly belonging to Noblemen, before they built others near White-hall, have been turned into Tenements; upon which Account Alhallows upon the Wall is increased by the conversion of the Marquess of Winchester's House, lately the Spanish Embassadour's, into a new Street; the like of Alderman ‖ Freeman's, and La Motte's near the Exchange; the like of the Earl of Arundel's in Loth-bury; the like of the Bishop of London's Palace, the Dean of Paul's, and the Lord River's House now in hand; as also of the Duke's-Place, and others heretofore.

9. Of the sixteen Parishes, next without the Walls, Saint Giles Cripplegate hath been most enlarged, next to that Saint Olaves Southwark, then Saint Andrew's Holborn, then White-Chappel, the difference in the rest not being considerable.

10. Of the Out-Parishes, now called ten, formerly nine, and before that eight, Saint Giles's and Saint Martin's in the Fields are most increased, notwithstanding Saint Paul's Covent-Garden was taken out of them both.

11. The general Observation, which arises from hence, is, That the City of London gradually removes Westward, and did not the Royal Exchange and London-Bridg stay the Trade, it would remove much faster: for Leaden-Hall-street, Bishop's-Gate, and part of Fen-Church-street, have lost their Ancient Trade; Grace-Church-street indeed keeping it self yet entire, by reason of its conjunction with, and relation to London-Bridg. ‖

12. Again, Canning-street and Watlin-street, have lost their Trade of Woollen-Drapery to Paul's Church-Yard, Ludgate hill, and Fleet-street: the Mercery is gone from out of Lumbard-street and Cheap-side into Pater-Noster-Row and Flect-street.

13. The reasons whereof are, That the King's Court (in old times frequently kept in the City) is now always at Westminster. Secondly, the use of Coaches, whereunto the narrow Streets of the old City are unfit, hath caused the building of those broader Streets in Covent-Garden, &c.

14. Thirdly, where the Consumption of a Commodity is, viz. among the Gentry, the Venders of the same must seat themselves.

15. Fourthly, the cramming up of the void spaces and Gardens within the Walls with Houses, to the prejudice of Light and Air, have made men build new ones, where they less fear those inconveniencies.

16. Conformity in Building to other civil Nations hath disposed us to let our old Wooden dark Houses fall to decay, and to build new ones, whereby to answer all the ends above-mentioned.

17. Where note, That when Lud-gate was the only Western Gate of the City, little ‖ Building was Westward thereof: but, when Holborn began to increase, New-gate was made. But now both these Gates are not sufficient for the Communication between the Walled City, and its enlarged Western Suburbs, as daily appears by the intolerable stops and embarasses of Coaches near both these Gates, especially Lud-gate.

CHAP. X.

Of the Inequality of Parishes.

1. BEfore we pass from hence, we shall offer to consideration the Inequality of Parishes in and about London, evident in the proportion of their respective Burials; for in the same year were Buried in Cripple-gate-Parish 1191, that but twelve died in Trinity-Minories, Saint Saviour's Southwark, and Botolph's Bishops-gate, being of the middle size, as burying five and 600 per Annum: so that Cripple-gate is an hundred times as big as the Minories, and 200 times as big as Saint John the Evangelist's, Mary-Coal-Church, Bennet's-Grace-Church, Matthew-Friday-street, ‖ and some others within the City.

2. Hence may arise this Question, Wherefore should this Inequality be continued? If it be Answered, Because that Pastours of all sorts, and sizes of Abilities, may have Benefices, each man according to his merit: we Answer, That a two hundredth part of the best Parson's learning is scarce enough for a Sexton. But besides, there seems no reason of any difference at all, it being as much Science to save one single Soul, as one thousand.

3. We incline therefore to think the Parishes should be equal1 , or near, because, in the Reformed Religions, the principal use of Churches is to Preach in: now the bigness of such a Church ought to be no greater, than that unto which the voice of a Preacher of middling Lungs will easily extend; I say easily, because they speak an hour or more together.

4. The use of such large Churches, as Paul's, is now wholly lost, we having no need of saying perhaps fifty Masses all at one time; nor of making those grand Processions frequent in the Romish Church; nor is the shape of our Cathedral proper at all for our Preaching Auditories, but rather the Figure of an Amphi-Theater with Galleries, gradually over-looking ‖ each other: for unto this Condition the Parish-Churches of London are driving apace, as appears by the many Galleries every day built in them.

5. Moreover, if Parishes were brought to the size of Coalman-street, Alhallows-Barking, Christ-Church, Black-Friers, &c. in each whereof die between 100 and 150 per Annum, then an hundred Parishes would be a fit and equal Division of this great charge, and all the Ministers (some whereof have now scarce fourty pounds per Annum) might obtain a subsistence.

6. And lastly, The Church-Wardens and Over-seers of the Poor might find it possible to discharge their Duties, whereas now in the greater Out-Parishes many of the poorer Parishioners through neglect do perish, and many vicious persons get liberty to live as they please, for want of some heedful Eye to overlook them. ‖

CHAP. XI.

Of the number of Inhabitants.

I Have been several times in company with men of great experience in this City, and have heard them talk seldom under Millions of People to be in London1 : all which I was apt enough to believe, until, on a certain day, one of eminent Reputation was upon occasion asserting, That there was in the year 1661 two Millions of People more than Anno 1625 before the great Plague. I must confess, that, until this provocation, I had been frighted, with that mis-understood Example of David1 , from attempting any computation of the People of this populous place; but hereupon I both examined the lawfulness of making such Enquiries, and, being satisfied thereof, went about the work it self in this manner: viz.

2. First, I imagined, That, if the Conjecture of the worthy Person afore-mentioned had any truth in it, there must needs be about six or seven Millions of People in London ‖ now; but, repairing to my Bills, I found, that not above 15000 per Annum were buried; and consequently, that not above one in four hundred must die per Annum, if the Total were but six Millions.

3. Next considering, That it is esteemed an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer2 , I supposed it was the same, that one of any ten might die within one year. But when I considered, that of the 15000 afore-mentioned about 5000 were Abortive and Still-born, or died of Teeth, Convulsion, Rickets, or as Infants, and Chrysoms, and Aged; I concluded, that of Men and Women, between ten and sixty, there scarce died 10000 per Annum in London, which number being multiplied by 102 , there must be but 100003 in all, that is not the part of what the Alderman imagined. These were but sudden thoughts on both sides, and both far from truth, I thereupon endeavoured to get a little nearer, thus: viz.

4. I considered, that the number of Child-bearing Women might be about double to the Births: forasmuch as such Women, one with another, have scarce more than one Child in two years. The number of Births I found, by those years wherein the Registries were well kept, to have been somewhat less than ‖ the Burials. The Burials in these late years at a Medium are about 13000, and consequently the Christenings not above 12000. I therefore esteemed the number of Teeming-Women to be 24000: then I imagined, that there might be twice as many Families, as of such Women; for that there might be twice as many Women Aged between 16 and 76, as between 16 and 40, or between 20 and 44; and that there were about eight Persons in a Family, one with another, viz. the Man and his Wife, three Children and three Servants or Lodgers: now 8 times 48000 makes 384000.

5. Secondly, I find, by telling the number of Families in some Parishes within the Walls, that 3 out of 11 Families per annum have died: wherefore, 13000 having died in the whole, it should follow, there were 480001 Families according to the last-mentioned Account.

6. Thirdly, the Account, which I made of the Trained-Bands and Auxiliary-Souldiers doth enough justifie this Account.

7. And lastly, I took the Map of London set out in the year 1658 by Richard Newcourt2 , drawn by a Scale of Yards. Now I ghessed that in 100 Yards square there might be about 54 Families, supposing every House ‖ to be 20 Foot in the front: for on two sides of the said square there will be 100 Yards of Housing in each, and in the two other sides 80 each; in all 360 Yards: that is, 54 Families in each square, of which there are 220 within the Walls, making in all 11880 Families within the Walls. But forasmuch as there die within the Walls about 3200 per Annum, and in the whole 13000; it follows, that the Housing within the Walls is ¼ part of the whole, and consequently, that there are 47520 Families in and about London, which agrees well enough with all my former computations: the worst whereof doth sufficiently demonstrate, that there are two Millions3 of People in London, which nevertheless most men do believe, as they do, that there be three Women for one Man, whereas there are fourteen Men for thirteen Women, as elsewhere hath been said1 .

8. We have (though perhaps too much at Random) determined the number of the Inhabitants of London2 to be about 384000: the which being granted, we assert, that 199112 are Males, and 184186 Females.

9. Whereas we have found3 , that of 100 quick Conceptions about 36 of them die before they be six years old, and that perhaps but one surviveth 764 ; we having seven Decads ‖ between six and 76, we sought six mean proportional numbers5 between 64, the remainder, living at six years, and the one, which survives 76, and find, that the numbers following are practically near enough to the truth; for men do not die in exact proportions, nor in Fractions, from whence arises this Table following.

Viz. Of an hundred there die within the first six years6 36

10. From whence it follows, that of the said 100 conceived, there remain alive at six years end 64.

11. It follows also, That of all which have been conceived, there are now alive 40 per Cent. above sixteen years old, 25 above twenty six years old, & sic deinceps, as in the above-Table. There are therefore of Aged between 16 and 56 the number of 40, less by six, viz. 34; of between 26 and 66 the number of 25, less by three, viz. 22: & sic deinceps.

Wherefore, supposing there be 199112 Males, and the number between 16 and 56 being 34; it follows, there are 34 per Cent. of all those Males fighting Men in London, that is 67694, viz. near 70000; the truth whereof I leave to examination, only the ⅕ of 67694, viz. 13539, is to be added for Westminster, Stepney, Lambeth, and the other distant Parishes; making in all 81233 fighting Men.

12. The next enquiry will be, In how long time the City of London shall, by the ordinary proportion of Breeding and dying, double its breeding People?1 I answer, In about seven years, and (Plagues considered) eight. Wherefore, since there be 24000 pair of Breeders, that is ⅛ of the whole, it follows, that in eight times eight years the whole People of the City shall double, without the access of Forreiners: the which contradicts not ‖ our Account of its growing from two to five in 56 years with such accesses

13. According to this proportion, one couple, viz. Adam and Eve, doubling themselves every 64 years of the 5610 years1 , which is the Age of the World according to the Scriptures, shall produce far more People than are now in it. Wherefore the World is not above 100 thousand years older2 , as some vainly imagine, nor above what the Scripture makes it.

CHAP. XII.

Of the Country-Bills.

WE have, for the present, done with our Observations upon the Accounts of Burials and Christenings in and about London; we shall next present the Accounts of both Burials, Christenings, and also of Weddings in the Country, having to that purpose inserted Tables of 90 years for a certain Parish in Hantshire3 , being a place neither famous for Longevity and Healthfulness, nor for the contrary. Upon which Tables we observe, ‖

1. That every Wedding, one with another, produces four Children, and consequently that that is the proportion of Children which any Marriageable Man or Woman may be presumed shall have. For, though a man may be Married more than once, yet, being once Married, he may die without any Issue at all.

2. That in this Parish there were born 15 Females for 16 Males, whereas in London there were 13 for 14, which shews, that London is somewhat more apt to produce Males than the Country. And it is possible, that in some other places there are more Females born than Males: which, upon this variation of proportion, I again recommend to the examination of the curious.

3. That in the said whole 90 years the Burials of the Males and Females were exactly equal, and that in several Decads they differed not part; That in one of the two Decads, wherein the difference was very notorious, there were Buried of Males 337, and of Females but 284, viz. 53 difference, and in the other there died contrariwise 338 Males, and 386 Females, differing 46.

4. There are also Decads, where the Birth of Males and Females differ very much, viz. about 60. ‖

5. That in the said 90 years there have been born more than buried in the said Parish (the which, both 90 years ago, and also now, consisted of about 2700 Souls) but 1059, viz. not 12 per Annum, one year with another.

6. That these 1059 have in all probability contributed to the increase of London; since, as was said even now, it neither appears by the Burials, Christenings, or by the built of new housing, that the said Parish is more populous now, than 90 years ago, by above two or 300 Souls. Now, if all other places send about ⅓ of their increase, viz. about one out of 900 of their Inhabitants Annually to London, and that there be 14 times as many People in England as there be in London (for which we have given some Reasons1 ) then London increases by such Advenœ every year above 6000: the which will make the Account of Burials to swell about 200 per Annum, and will answer the increases we observe. It is clear, that the said Parish is increased about 300, and it is probable that three or four hundred more went to London; and it is known, That about 400 went to New-England, the Caribe-Islands, and New-found-Land, within these last fourty years. ‖

7. According to the Medium of the said whole 90 years, there have been five Christenings for four Burials, although in some single Years and Decads there have been three to two, although sometimes (though more rarely) the Burials have exceeded the Births, as in the case of Epidemical Diseases.

8. Our former Observation1 , That healthful years are also the most fruitful, is much confirmed by our Country Accounts; for, 70 being our Standard for Births, and 58 for Burials, you shall find, that where fewer than 58 died, more than 70 were born. Having given you a few instances thereof, I shall remit you to the Tables for the general proof of this Assertion: Viz. Anno 1633, when 103 were born, there died but 29. Now, in none of the whole 90 years, more were born than 103, and but in one fewer than 29 died, viz. 28 Anno 1658. Again Anno 1568, when 93 were born, but 42 died. Anno 1584, when 90 were born, but 41 died. Anno 1650, when 86 were born. but 52 died. So that by how much more are born, by so much (as it were) the fewer die. For when 103 were born, but 29 died: but when but 86 were born, then 52 died.

On the other side, Anno 1638, when 156 died per Annum, which was the greatest year ‖ of Mortality, then less than the meer Standard 70,. viz. but 66, were born. Again Anno 1644, when 137 died, but 59 were born. Anno 1597, when 117 died, but 48 were born. And Anno 1583, when 87 died, but 59 were born.

A little Irregularity may be found herein, as that Anno 1612, when 116 died (viz. a number double to our Standard 58, yet) 87 (viz. 17 above the Standard 70) were born. And that when 89 died, 75 were born: but these differences are not so great, nor so often, as to evert our Rule, which, besides the Authority of these Accounts, is probable in it self.

9. Of all the said 90 years the year 1638 was the most Mortal; I therefore enquired, whether the Plague was then in that Parish, and having good satisfaction that it was not, (which I rather believe, because that the Plague was not then considerable at London) but that it was a Malignant Fever, raging so fiercely about Harvest, that there appeared scarce hands enough to take in the Corn: which argues, considering there were 2700 Parishioners, that seven might be sick for one that died: whereas of the Plague more die than recover. Lastly, these People lay longer sick than is usual in the Plague, nor was there any mention of Sorcs, Swellings, Blew-Tokens, ‖ &c. among them. It follows, that the proportion between the greatest and the least Mortalitics in the Country are far greater than at London: Forasmuch as the greatest 156 is above quintuple unto 28 the least, whereas in London (the Plague excepted, as here it hath been) the number of Burials upon other Accounts within no Decad of years hath been double, whereas in the Country it hath been quintuple, not only within the whole ninety years, but also within the same Decad: for Anno 1633 there died but 29, and Anno 1638 the above-mentioned number of 156. Moreover, as in London, in no Decad, the Burials of one year are double to those of another: so in the Country they are seldom not more than so; as by this Table appears1 .

Which shews, that the opener and freer Airs are most subject both to the good and bad Impressions, and that the Fumes, Steams and Stenches of London do so medicate and impregnate the Air about it, that it becomes capable of little more, as if the said Fumes rising out of London met with, opposed and justled backwards the Influences falling from above, or resisted the Incursion of the Country-Airs.

10. In the last Paragraph we said, that the Burials in the Country were sometime quintuple to one another, but of the Christenings we affirm, that within the same Decad they are seldom double, as appears by this Table, viz.1 .

Now, although the disproportions of Births be not so great as that of Burials, yet these disproportions are far greater than at London: for let it be shewn in any of the London Bills, that within two years the Christenings have decreased ½, or increased double, as they did Anno 1584, when 90 were born, and Anno 1586, wherein were but 45: or to rise from 52, as Anno 1593, to 71, as in the next year 1594. Now these disproportions both in Births and Burials confirm what hath been before asserted1 , That Healthfulness and Fruitfulness go together, as they would not, were there not disproportions in both, although proportional.

11. By the Standard of Burials in this Parish I thought to have computed the number of Inhabitants in it, viz. by multiplying 58 by 41 , which made the Product 232, the number of Families. Hereupon I wondred, that a Parish containing a large Market-Town, and 12 Miles compass, should have but 232 Houses; I then multiplyed 232 by 8, the Product whereof was 1856, thereby hoping to have had the number of the Inhabitants, as I had for London2 : but when upon enquiry, I found there had been 2100 Communicants in that Parish, in the time of a Minister who forced too many into that Ordinance, and ‖ that 1500 was the ordinary number of Communicants in all times; I found also, that forasmuch as there were near as many under 16 years old, as there are above3 , viz. Communicants, I concluded, that there must be about 2700 or 2800 Souls in that Parish: from whence it follows, that little more than one of 50 dies in the Country, whereas in London it seems manifest, that about one in 32 dies4 , over and above what dies of the Plague.

12. It follows therefore from hence, what I more faintly asserted in the former Chapter5 , that the Country is more healthful than the City; that is to say, although men die more regularly, and less per saltum in London, than in the Country, yet, upon the whole matter, there die fewer per rata; so as the Fumes, Steams, and Stenches above-mentioned, although they make the Air of London more equal, yet not more Healthful.

13. When I consider, That in the Country seventy are Born for fifty eight Buried, and that before the year 1600 the like happened in London, I considered, whether a City, as it becomes more populous, doth not, for that very cause, become more unhealthful: and inclined to believe, that London now is more unhealthful than heretofore; partly for that ‖ it is more populous, but chiefly because I have heard, that sixty years ago few Sea-Coals were burnt in London, which are now universally used. For I have heard, that Newcastle is more unhealthful than other places and that many People cannot at all endure the smoak of London, not only for its unpleasantness, but for the suffocations which it causes1 .

14. Suppose, that Anno 1569 there were 2400 Souls in that Parish, and that they increased by the Births 70, exceeding the Burials 58, it will follow, that the said 2400 cannot double under 200. Now, if London be less healthful than the Country, as certainly it is, the Plague being reckoned in, it follows, that London must be doubling it self by generation in much above 2002 : but if it hath increased from 2 to 5 in 54, as aforesaid, the same must be by reason of transplantation out of the country. ‖

The Conclusion.

IT may be now asked, To what purpose tends all this laborious bustling and groping? To know,

• 1. The number of the People?
• 2. How many Males and Females?
• 3. How many Married and Single?
• 4. How many Teeming Women?
• 5. How many of every Septenary, or Decad of years in age?
• 6. How many Fighting Men?
• 7. How much London is, and by what steps it hath, increased?
• 8. In what time the Housing is replenished after a Plague?
• 9. What proportion die of each general and particular Casualties?
• 10. What Years are Fruitful and Mortal, and in what Spaces and Intervals they follow each other?
• 11. In what proportion Men neglect the Orders of the Church, and Sects have increased? ‖
• 12. The disproportion of Parishes?
• 13. Why the Burials in London exceed the Christenings, when the contrary is visible in the Country?

To this I might answer in general, by saying, that those, who cannot apprehend the reason of these Enquiries, are unfit to trouble themselves to ask them.

2. I might answer by asking, Why so many have spent their times and Estates about the Art of making Gold? which, if it were much known, would only exalt Silver into the place which Gold now possesseth; and if it were known but to some one Person, the same single Adeptus could not, nay, durst not enjoy it, but must be either a Prisoner to some Prince, and Slave to some Voluptuary, or else skulk obscurely up and down for his privacy and concealment.

3. I might answer, That there is much pleasure in deducing so many abstruse and unexpected inferences out of these poor despised Bills of Mortality; and in building upon that ground, which hath lain waste these eighty years. And there is pleasure in doing something new, though never so little, without pestering the World with voluminous Transcriptions. ‖

4. But I answer more seriously, by complaining, That whereas the Art of Governing, and the true Politicks, is how to preserve the Subject in Peace and Plenty; that men study only that part of it which teacheth how to supplant and over-reach one another, and how, not by fair out-running, but by tripping up each other's heels, to win the Prize.

Now, the Foundation or Elements of this honest harmless Policy is to understand the Land, and the hands of the Territory, to be governed according to all their intrinsick and accidental differences: As for example; It were good to know the Geometrical Content, Figure, and Situation of all the Lands of a Kingdom, especially according to its most natural, permanent, and conspicuous Bounds. It were good to know how much Hay an Acre of every sort of Meadow will bear; how many Cattel the same weight of each sort of Hay will feed and fatten; what quantity of Grain and other Commodities the same Acre will bear in one, three, or seven years, communibus Annis; unto what use each soil is most proper. All which particulars I call the intrinsick value: for there is also another value meerly accidental, or extrinsick, consisting of the Causes why a parcel of Land, ‖ lying near a good Market, may be worth double to another parcel, though but of the same intrinsick goodness; which answers the Queries, why Lands in the North of England are worth but sixteen years purchase, and those of the West above eight and twenty. It is no less necessary to know how many People there be of each Sex, State, Age, Religion, Trade, Rank, or Degree, &c. by the knowledge whereof, Trade and Government may be made more certain and Regular; for, if men knew the People, as aforesaid, they might know the consumption they would make, so as Trade might not be hoped for where it is impossible. As for instance, I have heard much complaint, that Trade is not set in some of the South-western and North-western Parts of Ireland, there being so many excellent Harbours for that purpose; whereas in several of those places I have also heard, that there are few other Inhabitants, but such as live ex sponte creatis, and are unfit Subjects of Trade, as neither employing others, nor working themselves.

Moreover, if all these things were clearly and truly known (which I have but ghessed at) it would appear, how small a part of the People work upon necessary Labours and ‖ Callings, viz. how many Women and Children do just nothing, only learning to spend what others get; how many are meer Voluptuaries, and as it were meer Gamesters by Trade; how many live by puzling poor people with unintelligible Notions in Divinity and Philosophy; how many by perswading credulous, delicate, and ligitious Persons, that their Bodies or Estates are out of Tune, and in danger; how many by fighting as Souldiers; how many by Ministries of Vice and Sin; how many by Trades of meer Pleasure, or Ornaments; and how many in a way of lazy attendance, &c. upon others: And on the other side, how few are employed in raising and working necessary Food and Covering; and of the speculative men, how few do study Nature and Things! The more ingenious not advancing much further than to write and speak wittily about these matters.

I conclude, That a clear knowledge of all these particulars, and many more, whereat I have shot but at rovers, is necessary, in order to good, certain, and easie Government, and even to balance Parties and Factions both in Church and State. But whether the knowledge thereof be necessary to many, or fit for others than the Sovereign and his chief Ministers, I leave to consideration. ‖

AN APPENDIX1 .

FOrasmuch as a long and serious perusal of all the Bills of Mortality, which this great City hath afforded for almost fourscore years, hath advanced but the few Observations comprised in the fore-going Treatise; I hope very little will be expected from the few scattered Papers that have come to my hands since the publishing thereof, especially from one that hath learned from the Royal Society, how many Observations go to the making up of one Theoreme, which (like Oaks and other Trees fit for durable Building) must be of many years growth.

The Accounts which follow, I reckon but as Timber and Stones; and the best Inferences I can make, are but as hewing them to a Square: as for composing a beautiful and ‖ firm Structure out of them, I leave it to the Architecture of the said Society, under whom I think it honour enough to work as a Labourer.

My first Observation shall be, That at Dublin2 the Number of Weekly Burials being about 20, and those of London about 300, as also the Number of People reckoned to be within the Limits of the Bills of Mortality at London to be 460000; it will follow, that the Number of Inhabitants of Dublin be about 30000, viz. about one fifteenth part of those in and about London, which agrees with that Number which I have heard the Books of Poll-Money, raised but little before the time of this Bill, have exhibited as the Number of Inhabitants of that City: So as although I do not think one single Weekly Bill is sufficient to ground such a Conclusion upon, yet I think that several yearly Bills are the best of the easie ways from which to collect the Number of the People.

Secondly, Although I take it for granted, that in Dublin there be more Born than Buried, because the same hath appeared to be so in London by the Bills of Mortality before the year 1641, when the Civil Wars began, and much more eminently in Amsterdam, as shall be hereafter shewn; yet there are but 14 set down as Christned; which shews, that ‖ the defect there is much the same as at London, whether the cause thereof be negligence in the Register, on non-conformity to Publick Order, or both, I leave to the curious. I believe the cause is also the same, forasmuch as I heard it to be a Maxim at Dublin, to follow, if not forerun, all that is, or as they understand will be, practised in London; and that in all particulars incident to humane affairs.

I have here inserted two other Country-Bills, the one of Cranbrook1 in Kent, the other of Tiverton2 in Devonshire, which with that of Hantshire3 , lying about the midway between them, give us a view of the most Easterly, Southerly, and Westerly parts of England: I have endeavoured to procure the like account from Northumberland, Cheshire, Norfolk, and Nottinghamshire; Thereby to have a view of seven Counties most differently situated, from whence I am sorry to observe that my Southern friends have been hitherto more curious and diligent than those of the North. The full observation from these Bills is, that all these three Country Bills agree, that each Wedding produces four Children, which is likewise confirmed from the Bills of Amsterdam. Secondly, they all agree that there be more Males born than Females, ‖ but in different proportions, for at Cranbrook there be 20 Males for 19 Females, in Hantshire, 16 for 15, in London 14 for 13, and at Tiverton, 12 for 11. Thirdly, I have inserted the Bills themselves, to the end that whoever pleases may examin, by all three together, the Observations I raised from the Hantshire Bill alone; conceiving it will be more pleasure and satisfaction to do it themselves, than to receive it from another hand. Only I shall add, as a new Observation from them all, that in the years 1648 and 1649, being the time when the people of England did most resent the horrid Parricide of his late Sacred Majesty, that there were but nine weddings in that year in the same places, when there were ordinarily between 30 and 40 per Annum; and but 16, when there were ordinarily at other times between 50 and 60. And it may be also observed that something of this black murder appeared in the years 1643 and 1644, when the Civil war was at the highest, but the contrary in the years 1654, 1655, &c. to prevent the new way of Marriage then imposed upon the people1 .

I have also supplied the Tables from the three general Bills for the years 1662, 1663, and 1664, which you will find to justifie ‖ the former Observations. But most eminently that which I take to be of most concernment, namely, of the difference between the numbers of Males and Females.

In the former Observations I did endeavour to deduce the number of the Inhabitants about the City of London, from the Bills of Mortality, concluding them to be about 4600002 , and did likewise set forth by what steps the people of the said City have increased from two to five since the year 16003 .

And particularly in what proportions the City increased in its several parts from time to time: I have now procured an Account of the Men, Women, and Children, which were Anno 16311 . found within the Liberties of London, which are circumscribed by Temple-Bar, Holborn-Bars, Smithfield-Bars, Shoreditch-Bars, White-chappel-Bars, and to the Tower Liberties, and Meal-market in Southwark; by which Account I hope it will appear, that I computed too many rather than too few, although the most part of men have thought otherwise. Nor do I wonder at it, since I never observed more enormous mistakes in any matter than concerning the number of people, Ale-houses, Coaches, Ships, Sea-men, Water-men, and several ‖ other Tradesmen, &c. The proportions of all which I have always thought is necessary to be known, in order to an exact Symmetry of the several members of a Common-wealth. I say, that the whole number of Inhabitants exceeds not 460000.

1. The number of Men, Women, and Children, found in the City and Liberties 1631, was 130178.

2. The Liberties of the City of London consist of the 97 Parishes within the Walls, and of ⅔ of the 16 Parishes next without them, which estimate of mine, nevertheless, I leave to examination.

The Liberties of London from the year 1631 to the year 1661 increased from 8 to 11, as may appear by the Tables, and consequently the said 130000 found in the year 1631, were increased to 179000, in Anno 1661.

Lastly, the Liberties of London in the year 1661 were in proportion to the whole, as 4 to 9, and consequently if there were 179000 souls, in the said Liberties, there was not above 403000 in the whole number of Parishes then comprehended in the Bills of Mortality.

The substance of the Amsterdam Bills of Mortality is, viz.

1. That there died in the several years of the Plague, as followeth: ‖

2. That there are eleven burying-places, besides the Hospital and Pest-house, 257 Streets and Lanes, with 43 Burgwalls and Grachts in that City.

3. That in seven years, beginning from the 15 of August 1617 to the same day 1624, there were Christned in the reformed Churches of Amsterdam 52537, and that there died in the same time 32532. So as there were 20005 more born than buried, besides those that were Christned in other Congregations. And in the same time were 16430 publisht Marriages.

4. That in the first week of September 1664 there died 1041, and in eighteen weeks before the Burials increased from 331 up to the said number of 1041, ‖ and in twelve weeks after decreased back to the like number of 330.

5. In February following there died but 118 a week, and the ordinary number of weekly Burials is about 100, so as London seems to be three times as big as Amsterdam.

6. I have likewise hapned on some other Accompts, relating to Mortalities of some great Cities of the World, of what Authority I know not, but as printed at Amsterdam 1664, viz. Anno 1619 there died in Grand Cairo in ten weeks 73500, without any visible diminution of the people.

7. Anno 1625 there died in Leyden 9597. Anno 1635 there died in the same City of Leyden from the 14 of July, to the 29 of December 14381, the greatest week of mortality being the latter end of October was 1452. This Plague in 15 weeks increased from 96, to the said number of 1452, and in ten weeks after decreased to 107. Answerable to the time of Increase and Decrease afore-mentioned in Amsterdam, Anno 1655, there died in 21 weeks from July to November 13287, the greatest week being Septemb. 25. when died 896.

8. At Harlem there died in the same year, in the months of August, September, October and November 5723. ‖

9. Anno 1637, in Constantinople there died 1500 per diem, but how long this Plague lasted, appeareth not.

10. The same year died in Prague 20000 Christians, and 10000 Jews.

11. Anno 1652 there died in Cracovia 17000 Christians, and 20000 Jews.

12. Anno 1653 there died in Dantzick in the last week of September 640, and in Conningsburg 490.

13. 1654 there died in Copenhagen for several weeks 700 per week.

14. Anno 1655 there died at Amsterdam and Leyden, as above-mentioned; and at Deventer 70, 80, and 90 per diem.

15. At Leeuwardeen 56 per diem.

16. Anno 1656 there was so sweeping a Plague at Naples, that there died of it at the latter end of May 1300, or 1400 per diem. The sixth of June there were 80000 sick, that the well were not able to help, or bury the dead; presently after there died 5000 in three days; in August it began to cease, after it had destroyed 300000 people.

17. The Town of Scala in Italy was quite dispeopled, and at Minory there scaped but 22. At Rome there died in the same year about 100 per diem for a great while together. ‖

18. 1657 There died at Genoa in Midsummer week 1200, afterwards there died 1600 per diem; insomuch that in the beginning of August they burnt the dead Corps for want of hands to bury them, which great Mortality decreased to five or six per diem before September was out. The total sum of all that died was about 70000.

19. At Bergen in Norway, Anno 1618 the Plague is represented to have been very terrible, by saying that there died 50 or 60 per diem, and that the whole City was in tears, that the Coffin-makers refused to make Coffins, that parents carried their children, and children their parents to the grave. But forasmuch as it was not mentioned how populous this place was, nor for how many days the Mortality continued, I can make but little estimate of this Plague, by what is above related.

20. The general Observations arising from the above-mentioned particulars, are as followeth:

First, That Northern, as well as Southern Countries are infested with great Plagues; although in the Southern Countries they are more vehement, and do both begin and end more suddenly.

21. Secondly, from the year 1652 the ‖ Plague was at Cracow, 1653 at Dantzick and Coningsburg, 1654 at Copenhagen, 1655 at Leyden and Amsterdam, and other Towns in the Netherlands, 1656 at Naples and Rome, 1657 at Genoa; So as it well deserves enquiry, whether the Plague in all these places were a sickness of the same kind, and did successively perambulate the several Countries above-mentioned; or whether it were a several disease in each place.

22. Thirdly, that the Plague is longer in rising to its heighth, than in decreasing to the same pitch; and the proportion thereof, in such cases where it hath most plainly appeared, is about three to two; for at Amsterdam it was eighteen weeks rising, and twelve decreasing; and at Leyden fifteen upon the increase, and ten decreasing.

It may be further observed, that in the four several times of great Mortality, the height was not always in the same month; for Anno 1592 it was the second week in August, when there died 1550 of all diseases; in the year 1603 the height was the second week of September, when there died 3129 of all diseases; in 1625 the extremity was in the third week in August, when there died 5205. Anno 1636 the like extremity was in the first week of October, there then dying 4005 of ‖ all diseases. In this place I think fit to intimate, that considering the present increase of the City from Anno 1625 to this time, which is from eight to thirteen, that until the Burials exceed 8400 per week, the Mortality will not exceed that of 1625. Which God for ever avert.

It may be further observed, that the time of the Plagues continuance at the height was of several durations, for Anno 1592 it continued from the first week in July to the second of September, without increasing or decreasing above 100 in 1600; whereas in 1603 it remain'd but three weeks at the state, decreasing near ¼ the next week after the height; Anno 1625 it remain'd not three weeks at a stay, increasing part the next week before the height, and decreasing as much the next week after. Anno 1636 it stood five weeks without increasing or decreasing above part afore-mentioned.

Concerning the disease of the Plague, Anno 1592 it increased to of the greatest number that died in twenty weeks; Anno 1603, it did the same in eleven; Anno 1625, in nine weeks; Anno 1636, as it was not so fierce as in the other years, so it was of longer continuance, as hath been else-where noted1 . ‖

The last thing I shall observe is, that in all the four great years of mortality above-mentioned, I do not find that any week the Plague increased to the double of the precedent week above five times.

Anno 1631. Ann. 7. Caroli I.

THE number of Men, Women, and Children, in the several Wards of London, and Liberties: taken in August 1631, by special command from the Right Honourable the Lords of His Majesties Privy Council2 .

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1

The Table following contains the Number of Burials and Christenings in the seven Parishes hereafter mentioned, from the year 1636 unto the year 16592inclusive; all which time the Burials and christenings were jointly mentioned: the five last years the Christenings were omitted in the yearly Bills. This Table consists of seventeen Columns, the Total of all the Burials being contained in the sixteenth column: which Number being added to the Total in the Precedent Table of Burials and Christenings, makes the Total of every yearly or general Bill. ‖

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1

The number of the Weddings, Christnhtgs and Burials that were in the Town and Parish of Tiverton, from March 1560 to January 1664; as appeareth by the Registers.

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The number of the Weddings, Christnings and Burials that were in the Parish of Cranbrooke, from March 26. 1560 to March 24. 1649; (as appeareth by the Register) only in the years 1574 and 1575 the Christnings are wholly omitted, because the Register is very imperfect for the greater part of those years.

Dublin, A Bill of Mortality from the 26 of july to the 2d of August 1662.

Jacob Thring, Reg. ‖

Some further
OBSERVATIONS
OF Major John Graunt.

WHereas in the Month of December, in the Year 1672, there were Christen'd in the several Parishes of the City and Suburbs of Paris1 1366, and Weddings 68, and Buried 1153. yet of the Reformed Religion, in the same space of Time and Place, there were Christen'd but 27, and Buried but 14. At a medium being compared to the gross sum, the Protestants in Paris are but as one to 65.

A further Observation may be made; That whereas in the whole Year of 1672, there were Buried 17584, and the Christenings then were 18427, which difference ‖ between Christening and Burials was very agreeable with the difference formerly in the City of London, before Phanaticism and the Anabaptists were known in those Parts: But in the same Year of 1672 in the City of London and Places adjacent, the Burials were 18230, and the Christenings but 12563, By which it plainly appears that ⅓ of the Inhabitants of the Places aforesaid, are such as do not conform to the Doctrine and Discipline of the Church of England.

As concerning the common Question1 , Whether Paris or London hath most Inhabitants, my Answer must be fram'd after this manner, upon some Observations made upon the numbers of Burials of each City.

I find that in the City and Suburbs of Paris in the Years 1670, 1671, and 1672, the total number of the Burials was 56443, and in the Years aforesaid in the City of London, Suburbs, and Places adjacent (as appears by the Annual Bills of Mortality) was Buried 54157.

But since that Hackney, Lambeth, Newington, Islington, Rotherhith, Stepney and Westminster, although put into the Bills of Mortality, they cannot properly be reckon'd as parts of the City of London (Westminster being a distinct City of it self, and the others ‖ above-named Country Villages) and there having been Buried in the Places last named in the three Years aforesaid (as appears by the said Annual Bills) 10000, which being deducted out of the number aforesaid, the remaining number is 44157, upon which I think the Comparison must be made.

By which it appears that Paris hath exceeded the City of London in the number of Burials 12286, which number is between a fourth and a fifth of the said number of 56443, which is the Proportion of the difference in the number of Inhabitants; the City of Paris having more than a fourth, and yet not a fifth1 more than the City of London. ‖

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