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Natural and Political OBSERVATIONS, &c. - Sir William Petty, The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, vol. 2 
The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, together with The Observations upon Bills of Mortality, more probably by Captain John Graunt, ed. Charles Henry Hull (Cambridge University Press, 1899), 2 vols.
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Natural and Political OBSERVATIONS, &c.
Of the Bills of Mortality, their beginning, and progress.1
THE first of the continued Weekly Bills of Mortality extant at the Parish Clerks Hall2 , begins the Twenty ninth of December 1603, being the first year of King James his Reign; since when a weekly Accompt hath been kept there of Burials and Christnings. It is true, There were Bills ‖ before, viz. for the Years 1592, -93, -94; but so interrupted since, that I could not depend upon the sufficiency of them, rather relying upon those Accompts, which have been kept since in order, as to all the uses I shall make of them.
2. I believe, that the rise of keeping these Accompts was taken from the Plague: for the said Bills (for ought appears) first began in the said year 1592, being a time of great Mortality; and, after some disuse, were resumed again in the year 1603, after the great Plague then happening likewise1 .
3. These Bills were printed and published, not only every Week on Thursdays, but also a general Accompt of the whole Year was given in upon the Thursday before Christmas-day: which said general Accompts have been presented in the several manners following, viz. from the Year 1603, to the Year 1624, inclusivè, according to the Pattern here inserted2 .
The general Bill for the whole Year, of all the Burials and Christnings, as well within the City of London, and the Liberties thereof, as in the Nine out Parishes adjoyning tothe City, with the Pest-house belonging ‖ to the same: from Thursday the 18. of December 1623, to Thursday the 16. of December, 1624, according to the Report made to the King's most Excellent Majesty by the Company of the Parish-Clerks of London.
4. In the Year 1625, every Parish was particularized1 , as in this following Bill: where note, That this next year of Plague caused the Augmentation, and Correction of the Bills; as the former year of Plague did the very being of them.
A general, or great Bill for this Year, of the whole number of Burials, which have been buried of all Diseases, and also of the Plague in every Parish within the City of London, and the Liberties thereof; as also in the Nine out Parishes adjoyning to the said City; with the Pest-house belonging to the same: from Thursday the 16. day of December, 1624. to Thursday the 15. day of December, 1625. according to the Report ‖ made to the King's most Excellent Majesty by the Company of Parish Clerks of London.
5. In the Year 1626, the City of Westminster, in imitation of London, was inserted. The gross Accompt of the Burials and Christenings, with distinction of the Plague being only taken notice of therein; the fifth, or last Canton, or Lined-space, of the said Bill, being varied into the form following, viz.
6. In the Year 1629, an Accompt of the Diseases and Casualties, whereof any dyed, together with the distinction of Males and Females, making the sixth Canton of the Bill, was added in manner following.1
The Canton of Casualties; and of the Bill for the Year 1632, being of the same form with that of 1629. ‖
7. In the Year 1636, the Accompt of the Burials and Christnings, in the Parishes of Islington, Lambeth, Stepney, Newington, Hackney, and Redriff were added3 in the manner following, making a seventh Canton, viz. ‖
8. Covent-Garden being made a Parish1 , the Nine out Parishes were called the Ten out Parishes, the which in former years were but Eight.
9. In the Year 1660, the last-mentioned ten Parishes, with Westminster, Islington, Lambeth, Stepney, Newington, Hackney, and Redriff, are entred under two Divisions, viz. the one containing the Twelve Parishes lying in Middlesex and Surrey, and the other the Five Parishes within the City and Liberties of Westminster, viz. St. Clement Danes, St. Paul's Covent-Garden, St. Martin's in the Fields, St. Mary-Savoy, and St. Margaret's Westminster.
10. We have hitherto described the several steps whereby the Bills of Mortality are come up to their present state; we come next to shew how they are made and composed, which is in this manner, viz. When any one dies, then, either by tolling, or ringing of a Bell, or by bespeaking of a Grave of the Sexton, the same is known to the Searchers, corresponding with the said Sexton.
11. The Searchers hereupon (who are ancient Matrons, sworn to their Office) repair to the place where the dead Corps lies, and by view of the same, and by other enquiries, they examine by what Disease or Casualty ‖ the Corps died. Hereupon they make their Report to the Parish Clerk, and he, every Tuesday night, carries in an Accompt of all the Burials and Christnings happening that Week, to the Clerk of the Hall. On Wednesday the general Accompt is made up and printed, and on Thursday published and dispersed to the several Families who will pay four Shillings per Annum for them.
12. Memorandum, That although the general yearly Bills have been set out in the several varieties aforementioned, yet the Original Entries in the Hall-books were as exact in the very first year, as to all particulars, as now; and the specifying of Casualties and Diseases was probably more.
General Observations upon the Casualties.
IN my Discourses upon these Bills, I shall first speak of the Casualties, then give my Observations with reference to the Places and Parishes comprehended in the Bills; and next of the Years and Seasons.
1. There seems to be good reason, why the Magistrate should himself take notice of the ‖ numbers of Burials and Christnings, viz. to see whether the City increase or decrease in People; whether it increase proportionably with the rest of the Nation; whether it be grown big enough, or too big, &c. But why the same should be made known to the People, otherwise than to please them, as with a curiosity, I see not.
2. Nor could I ever yet learn (from the many I have asked, and those not of the least Sagacity) to what purpose the distinction between Males and Females is inserted, or at all taken notice of? or why that of Marriages was not equally given in? Nor is it obvious to every body, why the Accompt of Casualties (whereof we are now speaking) is made? The reason, which seems most obvious for this later, is, That the state of health in the City may at all times appear.
3. Now it may be Objected, That the same depends most upon the Accompts of Epidemical Diseases, and upon the chief of them all, the Plague; wherefore the mention of the rest seems only matter of curiosity.
4. But to this we Answer, That the knowledge even of the numbers which dye of the Plague, is not sufficiently deduced from the meer Report of the Searchers, which only the Bills afford; but from other Ratiocinations, ‖ and comparings of the Plague with some other Casualties.
5. For we shall make it probable1 , that in the Years of Plague, a quarter part more dies of that Disease than are set down; the same we shall also prove by other Casualties. Wherefore, if it be necessary to impart to the world a good Accompt of some few Casualties, which since it cannot well be done without giving an Accompt of them all, then is our common practice of so doing very apt and rational.
6. Now, to make these Corrections upon the, perhaps, ignorant and careless Searchers Reports, I considered first of what Authority they were of themselves, that is, whether any credit at all were to be given to their Distinguishments: and finding that many of the Casualties were but matter of sense, as whether a Child were Abortive or Stilborn; whether men were Aged, that is to say, above sixty years old, or thereabouts when they died, without any curious determination; whether such Aged persons died purely of Age, as for that the Innate heat was quite extinct, or the Radical moisture quite dried up (for I have heard some Candid Physicians complain of the darkness which themselves were in hereupon1 ) I say, that these Distinguishments ‖ being but matter of sense, I concluded the Searchers Report might be sufficient in the Case.
7. As for Consumptions, if the Searchers do but truly Report (as they may) whether the dead Corps were very lean and worn away, it matters not to many of our purposes, whether the Disease were exactly the same, as Physicians define it in their Books. Moreover, In case a man of seventy five years old died of a Cough (of which had he been free, he might have possibly lived to ninety) I esteem it little errour (as to many of our purposes) if this Person be in the Table of Casualties, reckoned among the Aged, and not placed under the Title of Coughs.
8. In the matters of Infants I would desire but to know clearly, what the Searchers mean by Infants, as whether Children that cannot speak, as the word Infant seems to signifie, or Children under two or three years old, although I should not be satisfied, whether the Infant died of Wind, or of Teeth, or of the Convulsion, &c. or were choaked with Phlegm, or else of Teeth, Convulsion, and Scowring, apart, or together, which, they say, do often cause one another; for, I say, it is somewhat to know how many die usually before they can speak, or how many live past any assigned number of years. ‖
9. I say, it is enough, if we know from the Searchers but the most predominant Symptoms; as that one died of the Headach, who was sorely tormented with it, though the Physicians were of Opinion, that the Disease was in the Stomach. Again, if one died suddenly, the matter is not great, whether it be reported in the Bills, Suddenly, Apoplexy, or Planet-strucken, &c.
10. To conclude, In many of these Cases the Searchers are able to report the Opinion of the Physician, who was with the Patient, as they receive the same from the Friends of the Defunct: and in very many Cases, such as Drowning, Scalding, Bleeding, Vomitting, making away themselves, Lunaticks, Sores, Small-pox, &c. their own senses are sufficient, and the generality of the World are able pretty well to distinguish the Gout, Stone, Dropsie, Falling sickness, Palsie, Agues, Pleuresie, Rickets, one from another.
11. But now as for those Casualties, which are aptest to be confounded and mistaken, I shall in the ensuing Discourse presume to touch upon them so far, as the Learning of these Bills hath enabled me.
12. Having premised these general Advertisements, our first Observation upon the Casualties shall be, That in Twenty Years1 ‖ there dying of all Diseases and Casualties 229250, that 711242 died of the Thrush, Convulsion, Rickets, Teeth and Worms; and as Abortives, Chrysomes, Infants, Livergrown, and Overlaid; that is to say, that about ⅓ of the whole died of those Diseases, which we guess did all light upon Children under four or five years old.
13. There died also of the Small Pox, Swine Pox, and Measles, and of Worms without Convulsions, 122103 , of which number we suppose likewise, that about ½ might be Children under six years old. Now, if we consider that sixteen4 of the said 229250 died of that extraordinary and grand Casualty, the Plague, we shall find that about thirty six per Centum of all quick conceptions died before six years old.
14. The second Observation is, That of the said 229250 dying of all Diseases, there died of acute Diseases, (the Plague excepted) but about 50000, or parts. The which proportion doth give a measure of the State, and disposition of this Climate and Air as to health; these acute and Epidemical Diseases happenning suddenly and vehemently, upon the like corruptions and alterations in the Air. ‖
15. The third Observation is, That of the said 229250, about seventy1 died of Chronical Diseases, which shews (as I conceive) the State and Disposition of the Country (including as well its Food as Air) in reference to health, or rather to longevity: for as the proportion of acute and Epidemical Diseases shews the aptness of the Air to sudden and vehement Impressions; so the Chronical Diseases shew the ordinary temper of the place: so that upon the proportion of Chronical Diseases seems to hang the judgment of the fitness of the Country for long life. For, I conceive, that in Countries subject to great Epidemical sweeps, men may live very long, but, where the proportion of the Chronical distempers is great, it is not likely to be so; because men being long sick, and alwaies sickly, cannot live to any great Age, as we see in several sorts of Metal-men, who, although they are less subject to acute Diseases than others, yet seldom live to be old, that is, not to reach unto those years, which David says is the Age of Man.
16. The fourth Observation is, That of the said 229250, not 4000 died of outward Griefs, as of Cancers, Fistula's Sores, Ulcers, broken and bruised Limbs, Imposthumes, Itch, King's Evil, Leprosie, Scald-head, ‖ Swine Pox, Wens, &c. viz. not one in sixty.
17. In the next place, whereas many persons live in great fear and apprehension of some of the more formidable and notorious Diseases following; I shall only set down how many died of each: that the respective numbers, being compared with the total 229250, those persons may the better understand the hazard they are in.
18. In the foregoing Observations we ventured to make a Standard of the healthfulness of the Air from the proportion of acute and Epidemical Diseases, and of the wholsomness of the food, from that of the Chronical. Yet, for as much as neither of them alone do shew the longevity of the Inhabitants, we shall in the next place come to the more absolute Standard and Correction of both, which is the proportion of the Aged, viz. 15757 to the Total 229250. That ‖ is, of about 1 to 15, or 7 per Cent. Only the question is, What number of years the Searchers call Aged, which I conceive must be the same that David calls so, viz. 70. For no man can be said to die properly of Age, who is much less. It follows from hence, That if in any other Country more than seven of the 100 live beyond 70, such Country is to be esteemed more healthful than this of our City.
19. Before we speak of particular Casualties, we shall observe, That among the several Casualties some bear a constant proportion unto the whole number of Burials; such are Chronical Diseases, and the Diseases whereunto the City is most subject; as for Example, Consumptions, Dropsies, Jaundice, Gout, Stone, Palsie, Scurvy, Rising of the Lights or Mother, Rickets, Aged, Agues, Fevers, Bloody Flux and Scowring: nay, some Accidents, as Grief, Drowning, Men's making away themselves, and being Kill'd by several Accidents, &c. do the like; whereas Epidemical and Malignant Diseases, as the Plague, Purples, Spotted Fever, Small Pox and Measles do not keep that equality: so as in some Years, or Months, there died ten times as many as in others. ‖
Of Particular Casualties.
1. MY first Observation is, that few are starved. This appears, for that of the 229250, which have died, we find not above fifty one to have been starved, excepting helpless Infants at Nurse, which being caused rather by carelessness, ignorance, and infirmity of the Milch-women, is not properly an effect or sign of want of food in the Country, or of means to get it.
2. The Observation which I shall add hereunto, is, That the vast number of Beggars, swarming up and down this City, do all live, and seem to be most of them healthy and strong; whereupon I make this question, Whether, since they do all live by begging, that is, without any kind of labour; it were not better for the State to keep them, even although they earned nothing? that so they might live regularly, and not in that Debauchery, as many Beggars do; and that they might be cured of their bodily Impotencies, ‖ or taught to work, &c. each according to his condition and capacity; or by being imployed in some work (not better undone) might be accustomed and fitted for labour?
3. To this some may Object, That Beggars are now maintained by voluntary Contributions, whereas in the other way the same must be done by general Tax; and consequently, the Objects of Charity would be removed and taken away.
4. To which we Answer, That in Holland, although no where fewer Beggars appear to charm up commiseration in the credulous, yet no where is there greater or more frequent Charity: only indeed the Magistrate is both the Beggar, and the Disposer of what is got by begging; so as all Givers have a Moral certainty that their Charity shall be well applyed.
5. Moreover, I question, Whether what we give to a Wretch that shews us lamentable sores and mutilations, be alwaies out of the purest Charity? that is, purely for God's sake; for as much as when we see such Objects, we then feel in our selves a kind of pain and passion by consent, of which we ease our selves, when we think we ease them, with whom we sympathised; or else we bespeak aforehand the like commiseration in ‖ others towards our selves, when we shall (as we fear we may) fall into the like distress.
6. We have said, 'Twere better the Publick should keep the Beggars, though they earned nothing, &c. But most men will laugh to hear us suppose, That any able to work (as indeed most Beggars are, in one kind of measure or another) should be kept without earning any thing. But we Answer, That if there be but a certain proportion of work to be done, and that the same be already done by the non-Beggars, then to imploy the Beggars about it, will but transfer the want from one hand to another; nor can a Learner work so cheap as a skilful practised Artist can. As for example, a practised Spinner shall spin a pound of Wool, worth two shillings, for six pence; but a Learner, undertaking it for three pence, shall make the wool indeed into yarn, but not worth twelve pence.
7. This little hint is the model of the greatest work in the World, which is the making of England as considerable for Trade as Holland; for there is but a certain proportion of Trade in the World, and Holland is prepossessed of the greatest part of it, and is thought to have more skill and experience to manage it; wherefore, to bring England into Holland's condition, as to this particular, ‖ is the same, as to send all the Beggars about London into the West Country to Spin, where they shall only spoil the Clothiers Wool, and beggar the present Spinners at best; but, at worst, put the whole Trade of the Country to a stand, until the Hollander, being more ready for it, have snapt that with the rest.
8. My next Observation is, That but few are Murthered, viz. not above 86 of the 229250, which have died of other Diseases and Casualties; whereas in Paris few nights scape without their Tragedy.
9. The Reasons of this we conceive to be Two: One is the Government and Guard of the City by Citizens themselves, and that alternately. No man setling into a Trade for that employment. And the other is, The natural and customary abhorrence of that inhuman Crime, and all Bloodshed, by most English men: for of all that are Executed, few are for Murther. Besides the great and frequent Revolutions and Changes in Government since the Year 1650, have been with little bloodshed; the Usurpers themselves having Executed few in comparison, upon the Accompt of disturbing their Innovations.
10. In brief, when any dead Body is found in England, no Algebraist, or Uncypherer of ‖ Letters, can use more subtile suppositions and variety of conjectures to find out the Demonstration or Cipher, than every common unconcerned person doth to find out the Murtherers, and that for ever, until it be done.
11. The Lunaticks are also but few, viz. 158 in 229250, though I fear many more than are set down in our Bills, few being entred for such, but those who die at Bedlam; and there all seem to dye of their Lunacy, who died Lunaticks; for there is much difference in computing the number of Lunaticks, that die (though of Fevers and all other Diseases, unto which Lunacy is no Supersedeas) and those that dye by reason of their Madness.
12. So that, this Casualty being so uncertain, I shall not force my self to make any inference from the numbers and proportions we find in our Bills concerning it: only I dare ensure any man at this present, well in his Wits, for one in a thousand, that he shall not dye a Lunatick in Bedlam within these seven years, because I find not above one in about one thousand five hundred have done so.
13. The like use may be made of the Accompts of men that made away themselves, ‖ who are another sort of Mad men, that think to ease themselves of pain by leaping into Hell; or else are yet more Mad, so as to think there is no such place; or that men may go to rest by death, though they dye in Self-murther, the greatest Sin.
14. We shall say nothing of the numbers of those that have been Drowned, Killed by falls from Scaffolds, or by Carts running over them, &c. because the same depends upon the casual Trade and Employment of men, and upon matters which are but circumstantial to the Seasons and Regions we live in, and affords little of that Science and Certainty we aim at.
15. We find one Casualty in our Bills, of which, though there be daily talk, there is little effect, much like our abhorrence of Toads and Snakes as most poisonous Creatures, whereas few men dare say upon their own knowledge they ever found harm by either; and this Casualty is the French Pox, gotten, for the most part, not so much by the intemperate use of Venery (which rather causeth the Gout) as of many common Women.
16. I say, the Bills of Mortality would take off these Bars, which keep some men within bounds, as to these extravagancies: for in ‖ the aforementioned 229250, we find not above 392 to have died of the Pox. Now, forasmuch as it is not good to let the World be lulled into a security and belief of Impunity by our Bills, which we intend shall not be only as Deaths heads to put men in mind of their Mortality, but also as Mercurial Statues to point out the most dangerous waies that lead us into it and misery; We shall therefore shew, that the Pox is not as the Toads and Snakes aforementioned, but of a quite contrary nature, together with the reason why it appears otherwise.
17. Forasmuch as by the ordinary discourse of the World it seems a great part of men have, at one time or other, had some species of this Disease, I wondering why so few died of it, especially because I could not take that to be so harmless, whereof so many complained very fiercely; upon enquiry, I found that those who died of it out of the Hospitals (especially that of Kingsland, and the Lock in Southwark) were returned of Ulcers and Sores. And in brief, I found, that all mentioned to dye of the French Pox were returned by the Clerks of Saint Giles's and Saint Martin's in the Fields only, in which place I understood that most of the vilest and most miserable Houses of ‖ Uncleanness were: from whence I concluded, that only hated persons, and such, whose very Noses were eaten off, were reported by the Searchers to have died of this too frequent Malady.
18. In the next place, it shall be examined, under what Name or Casualty such as die of these Diseases are brought in: I say, under the Consumption; forasmuch as all dying thereof dye so emaciated and lean (their Ulcers disappearing upon Death) that the Old-women Searchers, after the mist of a Cup of Ale, and the bribe of a Two-groat fee, in stead of one given them1 , cannot tell whether this emaciation or leanness were from a Phthisis, or from an Hectick Fever, Atrophy, &c. or from an Infection of the Spermatick parts, which in length of time, and in various disguises hath at last vitiated the habit of the Body, and by disabling the parts to digest their nourishment, brought them to the condition of leanness abovementioned.
19. My next Observation is, That of the Rickets we find no mention among the Casualties, until the Year 1634, and then but of 14 for that whole Year.
20. Now the Question is, Whether that Disease did first appear about that time; or whether a Disease, which had been long ‖ before, did then first receive its Name?
21. To clear this Difficulty out of the Bills (for I dare venture on no deeper Arguments) I enquired what other Casualtie before the Year 1634, named in the Bills, was most like the Rickets; and found, not only by Pretenders to know it, but also from other Bills, that Livergrown was the nearest. For in some years I find Livergrown, Spleen, and Rickets, put all together, by reason (as I conceive) of their likeness to each other. Hereupon I added the Livergrowns of the Year 1634, viz. 77, to the Rickets of the same Year, viz. 14, making in all 91; which Total, as also the Number 77 it self, I compared with the Livergrown of the precedent Year 1633, viz. 82: All which shewed me, that the Rickets was a new Disease over and above.
22. Now, this being but a faint Argument, I looked both forwards and backwards, and found, that in the Year 1629, when no Rickets appeared, there were but 94 Livergrowns; and in the Year 1636 there were 99 Livergrown, although there were also 50 of the Rickets: only this is not to be denied, that when the Rickets grew very numerous (as in the Year 1660, viz. 521) then there appeared not above 15 of Livergrown. ‖
23. In the Year 1659 were 441 Rickets, and 8 Livergrown. In the Year 1658 were 476 Rickets, and 51 Livergrown. Now, though it be granted that these Diseases were confounded in the Judgment of the Nurses, yet it is most certain, that the Livergrown did never but once, viz. Anno 1630 exceed 100; whereas Anno 1660, Livergrown and Rickets were 536.
24. It is also to be observed, That the Rickets were never more numerous than now, and that they are still increasing; for Anno 1649, there were but 190, next year 260, next after that 329, and so forwards, with some little starting backwards in some years, until the Year 1660, which produced the greatest of all.
25. Now, such back-startings seem to be universal in all things; for we do not only see in the progressive motion of the wheels of Watches, and in the rowing of Boats, that there is a little starting or jerking backwards between every step forwards, but also (if I am not much deceived) there appeared the like in the motion of the Moon, which in the long Telescopes at Gresham Colledge one may sensibly discern1 . ‖
26. There seems also to be another new Disease, called by our Bills The stopping of the Stomach, first mentioned in the Year 1636, the which Malady, from that Year to 1647, increased but from 6 to 29; Anno 1655 it came to 145. In 57, to 277. In 60 to 314. Now these proportions far exceeding the difference of proportion generally arising from the increase of Inhabitants, and from the resort of Advenæ to the City, shews there is some new Disease, which appeareth to the Vulgar, as A stopping of the Stomach.
27. Hereupon I apprehended that this Stopping might be the Green sickness, forasmuch as I find few or none to have been returned upon that Account, although many be visibly stained with it. Now, whether the same be forborn out of shame, I know not: For since the World believes that Marriage cures it, it may seem indeed a shame, that any Maid should dye uncured, when there are more Males than Females, that is, an overplus of Husbands to all that can be Wives.
28. In the next place, I conjectured that this stopping of the Stomach might be the Mother, forasmuch as I have heard of many troubled with Mother fits (as they call them) ‖ although few returned to have died of them; which conjecture, if it be true, we may then safely say, That the Mother-fits have also increased.
29. I was somewhat taken off from thinking this stopping of the Stomach to be the Mother, because I ghessed rather the Rising of the Lights might be it. For I remembred that some Women, troubled with the Mother-fits, did complain of a choaking in their Throats. Now, as I understand, it is more conceivable, that the Lights or Lungs (which I have heard called The Bellows of the Body) not blowing, that is, neither venting out, nor taking in breath, might rather cause such a Choking, than the Mother should rise up thither, and do it. For methinks, when a Woman is with Child, there is a greater rising, and yet no such Fits at all.
30. But what I have said of the Rickets and stopping of the Stomach, I do in some measure say of the Rising of the Lights also, viz. that these Risings (be they what they will) have increased much above the general proportion; for in 1629 there were but 44, and in 1660, 249, viz. almost six times as many. ‖
31. Now forasmuch as Rickets appear much in the Over-growing of Childrens Livers and Spleens (as by the Bills may appear) which surely may cause stopping of the Stomach by squeezing and crowding upon that part. And forasmuch as these Chokings or Risings of the Lights may proceed from the same stuffings, as make the Liver and Spleen to overgrow their due proportion. And lastly, forasmuch as the Rickets, stopping of the Stomach, and rising of the Lights, have all increased together, and in some kind of correspondent proportions; it seems to me that they depend one upon another, And that what is the Rickets in Children, may be the other in more grown Bodies; for surely Children, which recover of the Rickets, may retain somewhat to cause what I have imagined: but of this let the Learned Physicians consider, as I presume they have.
32. I had not medled thus far, but that I have heard, the first hints of the circulation of the Blood were taken from a common Person's wondering what became of all the blood which issued out of the heart, since the heart beats above three thousand times an hour, although but one drop should be pump'd out of it at every stroke. ‖
33. The Stone seemed to decrease: for in 1632, 33, 34, 35, and 36, there died of the Stone and Strangury 254. And in the Years 1655, 56, 57, 58, 59, and 1660, but 250, which numbers, although indeed they be almost equal, yet considering the Burials of the first named five Years were but half those of the later, it seems to be decreased by about one half.
34. Now the Stone and Strangury are Diseases which most men know that feel them, unless it be in some few cases, where (as I have heard Physicians say) a Stone is held up by the Films of the Bladder, and so kept from grating or offending it.
35. The Gout stands much at a stay, that is, it answers the general proportion of Burials; there dies not above one of 1000 of the Gout, although I believe that more dye Gouty. The reason is, because those that have the Gout, are said to be long livers; and therefore, when such dye, they are returned as Aged.
36. The Scurvy hath likewise increased, and that gradually from 12, Anno 1629, to 95, Anno 1660.
37. The Tyssick seems to be quite worn away, but that it is probable the same is entred as Cough or Consumption. ‖
. Agues and Fevers are entred promiscuously, yet in the few Bills wherein they have been distinguished, it appears that not above 1 in 40 of the whole are Agues.
39. The Abortives and Stilborn are about the twentieth part of those that are Christned, and the numbers seemed the same thirty Years ago as now, which shews there were more in proportion in those years than now: or else that in these later years due Accompts have not been kept of the Abortives, as having been buried without notice, and perhaps not in Church-yards.
40. For that there hath been a neglect in the Accompts of the Christnings, is most certain, because until the Year 1642, we find the Burials but equal with the Christnings, or near thereabouts, but in 1648, when the differences in Religion had changed the Government, the Christnings were but two thirds of the Burials. And in the Year 1659, not half, viz. the Burials were 14720 (of the Plague but 36) and the Christnings were but 5670; which great disproportion could be from no other Cause than that abovementioned, forasmuch as the same grew as the Confusions and Changes grew. ‖
41. Moreover, although the Bills give us in Anno 1659, but 5670 Christnings, yet they give us 421 Abortives, and 226 dying in Child-bed; whereas in the Year 1631, when the Abortives were 410, that is, near the number of the Year 1659, the Christnings were 8288. Wherefore by the proportion of Abortives, Anno 1659, the Christnings should have been about 8500: but if we shall reckon by the Women dying in Childbed, of whom a better Accompt is kept than of Stilborns and Abortives, we shall find Anno 1659, there were 226 Childbeds; and Anno 1631, 112, viz. not ½: Wherefore I conceive that the true number of the Christnings, Anno 1659, is above double to the 5690 set down in our Bills; that is, about 11500, and then the Christnings will come near the same proportion to the Burials, as hath been observed in former times.
42. In regular Times, when Accompts were well kept, we find that not above three in 200 died in Childbed, and that the number of Abortives was about treble to that of the Women dying in Childbed: from whence we may probably collect, that not one Woman of an hundred (I may say of two hundred) dies in her Labour; forasmuch as there be other Causes of a Womans dying with-in ‖ the Month, than the hardness of her Labour.
43. If this be true in these Countries, where Women hinder the facility of their Child-bearing by affected straitening of their Bodies; then certainly in America, where the same is not practised, Nature is little more to be taxed as to Woman, than in Brutes, among whom not one in some thousands do dye of their Deliveries: what I have heard of the Irish women confirms me herein.
44. Before we quite leave this matter, we shall insert the Causes, why the Accompt of Christnings hath been neglected more than that of Burials: one, and the chief whereof, was a Religious Opinion against Baptizing of Infants, either as unlawful, or unnecessary. If this were the only reason, we might by our defects of this kind conclude the growth of this Opinion, and pronounce, that not half the People of England, between the years 1650 and 1660, were convinced of the need of Baptizing.
45. A second Reason was, The scruples which many publick Ministers would make of the worthiness of Parents to have their Children Baptized, which forced such questioned Parents, who did also not believe the necessity of having their Children baptized ‖ by such Scruplers, to carry their Children unto such other Ministers, as having performed the thing, had not the Authority or Command of the Register to enter the Names of the baptized.
46. A third Reason was, That a little Fee was to be paid for the Registry1 .
47. Upon the whole matter it is most certain, That the number of Heterodox Believers was very great between the said year 1650 and 1660; and so peevish were they, as not to have the Births of their Children Registred, although thereby the time of their coming of Age might be known, in respect of such Inheritances as might belong unto them; and withal, by such Registring it would have appeared unto what Parish each Child had belonged, in case any of them should happen to want its relief.
48. Of Convulsions there appeared very few, viz. but 52 in the year 1629, which in 1636 grew to 709, keeping about that stay till 1659, though sometimes rising to about 1000.
49. It is to be noted, That from 1629 to 1636, when the Convulsions were but few, the number of Chrysoms and Infants was greater: for in 1629, there were of Chrysoms and Infants 2596, and of the Convulsion 52, ‖ viz. of both 2648. And in 1636 there were of Infants 1895, and of the Convulsions 709; in both 2604, by which it appears, that this difference is likely to be only a confusion in the Accounts.
50. Moreover, we find that for these later years, since 1636, the total of Convulsions and Chrysoms added together are much less, viz. by about 400 or 500 per Annum, than the like Totals from 1629 to 36, which makes me think, that Teeth also were thrust in under the Title of Chrysoms and Infants, inasmuch as in the said years, from 1629 to 1636, the number of Worms and Teeth wants by above 400 per Annum of what we find in following years. ‖
CHAP. IV. Of the Plague.
1. BEfore we leave to discourse of the Casualties, we shall add something concerning that greatest Disease or Casualty of all, The Plague.
There have been in London, within this Age, four times of great Mortality, that is to say, the years 1592 and 1593, 1603, 1625 and 1636.
2. Now it is manifest of it self, in which of these years most died; but in which of them was the greatest Mortality of all Diseases in general, or of the Plague in particular, we discover thus. In the Years 1592, and 1636, we find the proportion of those dying of the Plague in the whole to be near alike, that is, about 10 to 23, or 11 to 25, or as about 2 to 5.
3. In the Year 1625, we find the Plague to bear unto the whole in proportion as 35 to 51, or 7 to 10, that is almost the triplicate of the former proportion; for the Cube of 7 being 343, and the Cube of 10 being 1000, the said 343 is not ⅕1 of 1000.
4. In Anno 1603, the proportion of the Plague to the whole was as 30 to 37, viz. as 4 to 5, which is yet greater than the last of 7 to 202 : For if the year 1625 had been as great a Plague year as 1603, there must have died not only 7 to 10, but 8 to 10, which in those great numbers makes a vast difference.
5. We must therefore conclude the year 1603 to have been the greatest Plague year of this Age.
6. Now to know in which of these four was the greatest Mortality at large, we reason thus: ‖
7. From whence it appears, That Anno 1636, the Christnings were about ⅖ parts of the Burials: Anno 1592 but ⅕; but in the year 1603, and 1625, not above an eighth: so that the said two years were the years of greatest Mortality. We said that the year 1603 was the greatest Plague year. And now we say, that the same was not a greater year of Mortality than Anno 1625. Now to reconcile these two Positions, we must alledge, that Anno 1625, there was an errour in the Accompts or Distinctions of the Casualties; that is, more died of the Plague than were re-counted ‖ for under that name. Which Allegation we also prove thus, viz.
8. In the said year 1625 there are said to have died of the Plague 35417, and of all other Diseases 18848; whereas in the years, both before and after the same, the ordinary number of Burials was between 7 and 8000; so that if we add about 11000 (which is the difference between 7 and 18) to our 35, the whole will be 46000, which bears to the whole 54000, as about 4 to 5, thereby rendring the said year 1625 to be as great a Plague-year as that of 1603, and no greater; which answers to what we proved before, viz. that the Mortality of the two years was equal1 .
9. From whence we may probably suspect, that about ¼ part more died of the Plague than are returned for such; which we further prove by noting, that Anno 1636 there died 10400 of the Plague, the ¼ whereof is 2600 Now there are said to have died of all other Diseases that Year 12959, out of which number deducting 2600, there remain 10359, more than which there died not in several years next before and after the said Year 1636.
10. The next Observation we shall offer is, That the Plague of 1603 lasted eight Years. ‖ In some whereof there died above 4000, in others above 2000, and in but one fewer than 600: whereas in the Year 1624 next preceding, and in the Year 1626 next following the said great Plague-year 1625, there died in the former but 11, and in the later but 134 of the Plague. Moreover, in the said Year 1625, the Plague decreased from its utmost number 4461 a week, to below 1000 within six weeks.
11. The Plague of 1636 lasted twelve Years, in eight whereof there died 2000 per annum one with another, and never under 300. The which shews, that the Contagion of the Plague depends more upon the Disposition of the Air, than upon the Effluvia from the Bodies of men.
12. Which also we prove by the suddain jumps which the Plague hath made, leaping in one Week from 118 to 927; and back again from 993 to 258; and from thence again the very next Week to 852. The which Effects must surely be rather attributed to change of the Air, than of the Constitution of Mens Bodies, otherwise than as this depends upon that.
13. It may be also noted, That many times other Pestilential Diseases, as Purple Fevers, Small-Pox, &c. do fore-run the Plague a ‖ Year, two or three; for in 1622 there died but 8000: in 1623, 11000: in 1624, about 12000: till in 1625 there died of all Diseases above 54000.
Other Observations upon the Plague, and Casualties.
1. THE Decrease and Increase of People is to be reckoned chiefly by Christenings, because few bear Children in London but Inhabitants, though others die there. The Accounts of Christenings were well kept, until differences in Religion occasioned some neglect therein, although even these neglects we must confess to have been regular and proportionable.
2. By the numbers and proportions of Christenings therefore we observe as followeth, viz.
First, That (when from December 1602, to March following, there was little or no Plague) then the Christenings at a Medium were between 110 and 130 per Week, few ‖ Weeks being above the one, or below the other; but when from thence to July the Plague increased, that then the Christenings decreased to under 90.
Secondly, The Question is, Whether Teeming-Women died, or fled, or miscarried? The latter at this time seems most probable, because even in the said space, between March and July, there died not above 20 per Week of the Plague; which small number could neither cause the death or flight of so many Women, as to alter the proportion ¼ part lower.
3. Moreover, We observe from the 21 of July to the 12 of October, the Plague increasing reduced the Christenings to 70 at a Medium, diminishing the above proportion down to ⅖. Now the cause of this must be flying, and death, as well as Miscarriages and Abortions; for there died within that time about 25000, whereof many were certainly Women-with child: besides, the fright of so many dying within so small a time, might drive away so many others, as to cause this Effect.
4. From December 1624, to the middle of April 1625, there died not above five a Week of the Plague, one with another. In this time, the Christenings were one with another ‖ 180. The which decreased gradually by the 22 of September to 75, or from the proportion of 12 to 5, which evidently squares with our former Observation.
5. The next Observation we shall offer is, The time wherein the City hath been Re-peopled after a great Plague; which we affirm to be by the second year. For in 1627 the Christenings (which are our Standard in this Case) were 8408, which in 1624, next preceding the Plague-year 1625 (that had swept away above 54000) were but 8299; and the Christenings of 1626 (which were but 6701) mounted in one year to the said 8408.
6. Now the Cause hereof, forasmuch as it cannot be a supply by Procreations; Ergo, it must be by new Affluxes to London out of the Country.
7. We might fortifie this Assertion by shewing, that before the Plague-year 1603, the Christenings were about 6000, which were in that very year reduced to 4789, but crept up the next year 1604 to 5458, recovering their former ordinary proportion in 1605 of 6504, about which proportion it stood till the year 1610.
8. I say, it followeth, that, let the Mortality be what it will, the City repairs its loss of Inhabitants within two years; which Observation ‖ lessens the Objection made against the value of Houses in London, as if they were liable to great prejudice through the loss of Inhabitants by the Plague.
Of the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of Seasons.
1. HAving spoken of Casualties, we come next to compare the Sickliness, Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness of the several Years and Seasons one with another. And first, having in the Chapters afore going mentioned the several years of Plague, we shall next present the several other sickly years; we meaning by a sickly Year such wherein the Burials exceed those, both of the precedent and subsequent years, and not above two hundred dying of the Plague, for such we call Plague-Years; and this we do, that the World may see, by what spaces and intervals we may hereafter expect such times again. Now, we may not call that a more sickly year, wherein more die, because such excess of Burials ‖ may proceed from increase and access of People to the City only.
2. Such sickly years were 1618, 20, 23, 24, 1632, 33, 34, 1649, 52, 54, 56, 58, 61, as may be seen by the Tables1 .
3. In reference to this Observation we shall present another, namely, That the more sickly the years are, the less fecund or fruitful of Children also they be. Which will appear, if the number of Children born in the said sickly years be less than that of the years both next preceding and next following: all which, upon view of the Tables, will be found true, except in a very few Cases, where sometimes the precedent, and sometimes the subsequent years vary a little, but never both together. Moreover, for the confirmation of this Truth, we present you the year 1660, where the Burials were fewer than in either of the two next precedent years by 2000, and fewer than in the subsequent by above 4000: And withal, the number of Christenings in the said year 1660 was far greater than in any of the three years next afore-going.
4. As to this year 1660, although we would not be thought Superstitious, yet it is not to be neglected, that in the said year was the King's Restauration to His Empire over these three Nations, as if God Almighty had ‖ caused the healthfulness and fruitfulness thereof to repair the Bloodshed and Calamities suffered in His absence. I say, this conceit doth abundantly counterpoise the Opinion of those who think great Plagues come in with King's Reigns1 , because it hapned so twice, viz. Anno 1603, and 1625; whereas as well the year 1648, wherein the present King commenced His Right to reign, as also the year 1660. wherein He commenced the exercise of the same, were both eminently healthful: which clears both Monarchy, and our present King's Family, from what seditious men have surmised against them.
5. The Diseases, which beside the Plague make years unhealthful in this City, are Spotted-Fevers, Small-Pox, Dysentery, called by some The Plague in the Guts, and the unhealthful Season is the Autumn. ‖
Of the difference between Burials and Christenings.
1. THE next Observation is, That in the said Bills there are far more Burials than Christenings. This is plain, depending only upon Arithmetical computation; for, in 40 years from the year 1603, to the year 1644, exclusive of both years, there have been set down (as hapning within the same ground, space, or Parishes1 ) although differently numbred and divided, 363935 Burials, and but 330747 Christenings within the 97, 16, and 10 Out Parishes; those of Westminster, Lambeth, Newington, Redriff, Stepney, Hackney, and Islington, not being included.
2. From this single Observation it will follow, That London should have decreased in its People; the contrary whereof we see by its daily increase of Buildings upon new Foundations, and by the turning of great Palacious Houses into small Tenements. It is therefore ‖ certain, that London is supplied with People from out of the Country, whereby not only to supply the overplus differences of Burials abovementioned, but likewise to increase its Inhabitants according to the said increase of housing.
3. This supplying of London seems to be the reason, why Winchester, Lincoln, and several other Cities have decreased in their Buildings, and consequently in their Inhabitants. The same may be suspected of many Towns in Cornwal, and other places, which probably, when they were first allowed to send Burgesses to the Parliament, were more populous than now, and bore another proportion to London than now; for several of those Burroughs send two Burgesses, whereas London it self sends but four, although it bears the fifteenth part of the charge of the whole Nation in all Publick Taxes and Levies2 .
4. But, if we consider what I have upon exact enquiry found true, viz. That in the Country3 , within ninety years, there have been 6339 Christenings, and but 5280 Burials, the increase of London will be salved without inferring the decrease of the People in the Country; and withal, in case all England have but fourteen times more People than ‖ London, it will appear, how the said increase of the Country may increase the People, both of London and it self; for if there be in the 97, 16, 10, and 7 Parishes, usually comprehended within our Bills, but 460000 Souls, as hereafter we shall shew1 , then there are in all England and Wales 6440000 Persons, out of which subtract 460000, for those in and about London, there remain 5980000 in the Country, the which increasing about part in 40 years. as we shall hereafter prove2 doth happen in the Country, the whole increase of the Country will be about 854000 in the said time; out of which number, if but about 250000 be sent up to London in the said 40 years, viz. about 6000 per Annum, the said Missions will make good the alterations, which we find to have been in and about London, between the years 1603 and 1644 above-mentioned: But that 250000 will do the same, I prove thus; viz. in the 8 years, from 1603 to 1612, the Burials in all the Parishes, and of all Diseases, the Plague included, were at a Medium 9750 per Annum. And between 1635 and 1644 were 18000, the difference whereof is 8250, which is the Total of the increase of the Burials in 40 years, that is, about 206 per Annum. Now, to make the Burials increase 206 per Annum, there must ‖ be added to the City 30 times as many (according to the proportion of 3 dying out of 11 Families)3viz. 6180 Advenæ, the which number multiplied again by the 40 years, makes the Product 247200, which is less than the 250000 above-propounded; so as there remain above 600000 of increase in the Country within the said 40 years, either to render it more populous, or send forth into other Colonies, or Wars. But that England hath fourteen times more People, is not improbable, for the Reasons following.
1. London is observed to bear about the fifteenth proportion of the whole Tax.
2. There are in England and Wales about 39000 square Miles of Land, and we have computed that in one of the greatest Parishes in Hantshire, being also a Market-Town, and containing twelve square Miles, there are 220 Souls in every square Mile, out of which I abate ¼ for the over-plus of People more in that Parish than in other wild Counties. So as the ¾ parts of the said 220, multiplied by the Total of square Miles, produces 64000001 Souls in all London included.
3. There are about 10000 Parishes in England and Wales, the which, although they should not contain the ⅓ part of the Land, nor the ¼ of the People of that Country-Parish, ‖ which we have examined, yet may be supposed to contain about 600 People, one with another: according to which Account there will be six Millions of People in the Nation. I might add, that there are in England and Wales about five and twenty Millions of Acres at 16½ Foot to the Perch; and if there be six Millions of People, then there is about four Acres for every head, which how well it agrees to the Rules of Plantation, I leave unto others, not only as a means to examine my Assertion, but as an hint to their enquiry concerning the fundamental Trade, which is Husbandry, and Plantation.
4. Upon the whole matter we may therefore conclude, That the People of the whole Nation do increase, and consequently the decrease of Winchester, Lincoln, and other like places, must be attributed to other Reasons, than that of re-furnishing London only.
5. We come to shew, why although in the Country the Christenings exceed the Burials, yet in London they do not. The general Reason of this must be, that in London the proportion of those subject to die, unto those capable of breeding, is greater than in the Country; That is, let there be an hundred Persons in London, and as many in the Country; we say, that, if there be sixty of them ‖ Breeders in London, there are more than sixty in the Country, or else we must say, that London is more unhealthful, or that it inclines Men and Women more to Barrenness, than the Country: which by comparing the Burials and Christenings of Hackney, Newington, and the other Country-Parishes, with the most Smoky and Stinking parts of the City, is scarce discernible in any considerable degree.
6. Now that the Breeders in London are proportionably fewer than those in the Country, arises from these Reasons, viz.
1. All, that have business to the Court of the King, or to the Courts of Justice, and all Country-men coming up to bring Provisions to the City, or to buy Forein Commodities, Manufactures, and Rarities, do for the most part leave their Wives in the Country.
2. Persons coming to live in London out of curiosity and pleasure, as also such as would retire and live privately, do the same if they have any.
3. Such as come up to be cured of Diseases do scarce use their Wives pro tempore.
4. That many Apprentices of London, who are bound seven or nine years from Marriage, do often stay longer voluntarily. ‖
5. That many Sea-men of London leave their Wives behind them, who are more subject to die in the absence of their Husbands, than to breed either without men, or with the use of many promiscuously.
6. As for unhealthiness, it may well be supposed, that although seasoned Bodies may, and do live near as long in london, as elsewhere, yet new-comers and Children do not: for the Smoaks, Stinks, and close Air, are less healthful than that of the Country; otherwise why do sickly Persons remove into the Country-Air? And why are there more old men in Countries than in London, per rata? And although the difference in Hackucy and Newington, above-mentioned, be not very notorious, yet the reason may be their vicinity to London, and that the Inhabitants are most such, whose Bodies have first been impaired with the London-Air, before they withdraw thither.
7. As to the causes of Barrenness in London, I say, that although there should be none extraordinary in the Native Air of the place; yet the intemperance in feeding, and especially the Adulteries and Fornications, supposed more frequent in London than elsewhere, do certainly hinder Breeding. For a Woman, admitting ten Men, is so far from ‖ having ten times as many Children, that she hath none at all.
8. Add to this, that the minds of men in London are more thoughful, and full of business, than in the Country, where their work is corporal Labour and Exercises; All which promote Breeding, whereas Anxieties of the mind hinder it.
Of the difference between the numbers of Males and Females.
THE next Observation is, That there be more Males than Females1 .
1. There have been Buried from the year 1628, to the year 1662, exclusive, 209436 Males, and but 190474 Females: but it will be objected, That in London it may be indeed so, though otherwise elsewhere; because London is the great Stage and Shop of business, wherein the Masculine Sex bears the greatest part. But we Answer, That there have been also Christened within the same time 139782 Males, and but 130866 Females, and that ‖ the Country-Accounts are consonant enough to those of London upon this matter2 .
2. What the Causes hereof are, we shall not trouble our selves to conjecture, as in other Cases: only we shall desire, that Travellers would enquire, whether it be the same in other Countries.
3. We should have given an Account, how in every Age these proportions change here, but that we have Bills of distinction but for 32 years, so that we shall pass from hence to some Inferences from this Conclusion; as first,
I. That Christian Religion, prohibiting Polygamy, is more agreeable to the Law of Nature, that is, the Law of God, than Mahumetism, and others, that allow it: for one Man his having many Women, or Wives, by Law, signifies nothing, unless there were many Women to one Man in Nature also.
II. The obvious Objection hereunto is, That one Horse, Bull, or Ram, having each of them many Females, do promote increase. To which I Answer, That although perhaps there be naturally, even of these species, more Males than Females, yet artificially, that is, by making Geldings, Oxen, and Weathers, there are fewer. From whence it will follow, That when by experience it is found how many ‖ Ews (suppose twenty) one Ram will serve, we may know what proportion of male-Lambs to castrate or geld, viz. nineteen, or thereabouts: for if you emasculate fewer, viz. but ten, you shall, by promiscuous copulation of each of those ten with two Females, hinder the increase, so far as the admittance of two Males will do it: but, if you castrate none at all, it is highly probable, that, every of the twenty Males copulating with every of the twenty Females, there will be little or no conception in any of them all.
III. And this I take to be the truest Reason, why Foxes, Wolves, and other Vermin Animals, that are not gelt, increase not faster than Sheep, when as so many thousands of these are daily Butchered, and very few of the other die otherwise than of themselves.
4. We have hitherto said, There are more Males than Females; we say next, That the one exceed the other by about a thirteenth part. So that although more Men die violent deaths than Women, that is, more are slain in Wars, killed by Mischance, drowned at Sea, and die by the Hand of Justice; moreover, more Men go to Colonies, and travel into Forein parts, than Women; and lastly, more remain unmarried than of Women, as Fellows of Colleges, and Apprentices above eighteen, ‖ &c. yet the said thirteenth part difference bringeth the business but to such a pass, that every Woman may have an Husband, without the allowance of Polygamy.
5. Moreover, although a Man be Prolifick fourty years, and a Woman but five and twenty, which makes the Males to be as 560 to 325 Females, yet the causes above-named, and the later marriage of the Men, reduce all to an equality.
6. It appearing, that there were fourteen Men to thirteen Women, and that they die in the same proportion also; yet I have heard Physicians say, that they have two Women Patients to one Man, which Assertion seems very likely; for that Women have either the Green-sickness, or other like Distempers, are sick of Breedings, Abortions, Child-bearing, Sore-breasts, Whites, Obstructions, Fits of the Mother, and the like.
7. Now from this it should follow, that more Women should die than Men, if the number of Burials answered in proportion to that of Sicknesses: but this must be salved, either by the alleging, that the Physicians cure those Sicknesses, so as few more die than if none were sick; or else that Men, being more intemperate than Women, die as much by reason of their Vices, as Women do by the Infirmity ‖ of their Sex; and consequently, more Males being born than Females, more also die.
8. In the year 1642 many Males went out of London into the Wars then beginning, insomuch as I expected in the succeeding year 1643 to have found the Burials of Females to have exceeded those of Males, but no alteration appeared; forasmuch, as I suppose, Trading continuing the same in London, all those, who lost their Apprentices, had others out of the Country; and if any left their Trades and Shops, that others forthwith succeeded them: for, if employment for hands remain the same, no doubt but the number of them could not long continue in disproportion.
9. Another pregnant Argument to the same purpose (which hath already been touched on) is, That although in the very year of the Plague the Christenings decreased, by the dying and flying of Teeming-Women, yet the very next year after they increased somewhat, but the second after to as full a number as in the second year before the said Plague: for I say again, if there be encouragement for an hundred in London, that is, a Way how an hundred may live better than in the Country, and if there be void Housing there to receive ‖ them, the evacuating of a fourth or third part of that number must soon be supplied out of the Country; so as the great Plague doth not lessen the Inhabitants of the City, but of the Country, who in a short time remove themselves from thence hither, so long, until the City, for want of receipt and encouragement, regurgitates and sends them back.
10. From the difference between Males and Females, we see the reason of making Eunuchs in those places where Polygamy is allowed, the later being useless as to multiplication, without the former, as was said before in case of Sheep and other Animals usually gelt in these Countries.
11. By consequence, this practice of Castration serves as well to promote increase, as to meliorate the Flesh of those Beasts that suffer it For that Operation is equally practised upon Horses, which are not used for food, as upon those that are.
12. In Popish Countries, where Polygamy is forbidden, if a greater number of Males oblige themselves to Cælibate, than the natural over-plus, or difference between them and Females amounts unto; then multiplication is hindred: for if there be eight Men to ten Women, all of which eight Men are married to eight of the ten Women, then the other two ‖ bear no Children, as either admitting no Man at all, or else admitting Men as Whores (that is, more than one;) which commonly procreates no more than if none at all had been used: or else such unlawful Copulations beget Conceptions, but to frustrate them by procured Abortions, or secret Murthers; all which returns to the same reckoning. Now, if the same proportion of Women oblige themselves to a single life likewise, then such obligation makes no change in this matter of increase.
13. From what hath been said appears the reason, why the Law is and ought to be so strict against Fornications and Adulteries: for, if there were universal liberty, the Increase of Mankind would be but like that of Foxes at best.
14. Now forasmuch as Princes are not only Powerful, but Rich, according to the number of their People (Hands being the Father, as Lands are the Mother and Womb of Wealth)1 it is no wonder why States, by encouraging Marriage, and hindering Licentiousness, advance their own Interest, as well as preserve the Laws of God from contempt and violation.
15. It is a Blessing to Mankind, that by this over-plus of Males there is this natural ‖ Bar to Polygamy.: for in such a state Women could not live in that parity and equality of expense with their Husbands, as now, and here they do.
16. The reason whereof is, not, that the Husband cannot maintain as splendidly three, as one; for he might, having three Wives, live himself upon a quarter of his Income, that is, in a parity with all three, as well as, having but one, live in the same parity at half with her alone: but rather, because that to keep them all quiet with each other, and himself, he must keep them all in greater aw, and less splendour; which power he having, he will probably use it to keep them all as low as he pleases, and at no more cost than makes for his own pleasure; the poorest Subjects, (such as this plurality of Wives must be) being most easily governed. ‖
Of the growth of the City.
1. IN the year 1593 there died in the ninety seven Parishes within the walls, and the sixteen without the walls (besides 421 of the Plague) 3508. And the next year 3478, besides 29 of the Plague: in both years 6986. Twenty years after there died in the same ninety seven, and sixteen Parishes, 12110, viz. Anno 1614, 5873; and Anno 1615, 6237: so as the said Parishes are increased, in the said time, from seven to twelve, or very near thereabouts.
2. Moreover, the Burials within the like space of the next twenty years, viz. Anno 1634 and 1635, were 15625, viz. as about twenty four to thirty one: the which last of the three numbers, 15625, is much more than double to the first 6986; viz. the said Parishes have in fourty years increased from twenty three to fifty two.
3. Where is to be noted, That although we were necessitated to compound the said ‖ ninety seven with the sixteen Parishes, yet the sixteen Parishes have increased faster than the ninety seven. For. in the year 1620, there died within the walls 2726, and in 1660 there died but 3098 (both years being clear of the Plague:) so as in this fourty years the said ninety seven Parishes have increased but from nine to ten, or thereabouts, because the Housing of the said ninety seven Parishes could be no otherwise increased, than by turning great Houses into Tenements, and building upon a few Gardens.
4. In the year 1604 there died in the ninety seven Parishes 1518, and of the Plague 280. And in the year 1660, 3098, and none of the Plague; so as in fifty six years the said Parishes have doubled. Where note, That forasmuch as in the said year 1604 was the very next year after the great Plague 1603 (when the City was not yet re-peopled) we shall rather make the comparison between 2014, which died Anno 1605, and 3431 Anno 1659 choosing rather from hence to assert, That the said ninety seven and sixteen Parishes increased from twenty to thirty four, or from ten to seventeen in fifty four years, than from one to two in fifty six, as in the last aforegoing Paragraph is set down. ‖
5 Anno 1605 there died in the sixteen Out-Parishes 2974, and Anno 1659, 6988: so as in the fifty four years the said Parishes have increased from three to seven.
6. Anno 1605 there died in the eight Out-Parishes 960, Anno 1659 there died in the same scope of Ground, although called now ten Parishes (the Savoy and Covent-Garden1 being added) 4301: so as the said Parishes have increased, within the said fifty four years, more than from one to four.
7. Moreover, there were Buried in all, Anno 1605, 5948, and Anno 1659, 14720, viz. about two to five.
8. Having set down the proportions, wherein we find the said three great Divisions of the whole Pyle, called London, to have increased; we come next to shew what particular Parishes have had the most remarkable share in these Aug-mentations. Viz. of the ninety seven Parishes within the Walls the increase is not discernible, but where great Houses, formerly belonging to Noblemen, before they built others near White-hall, have been turned into Tenements; upon which Account Alhallows upon the Wall is increased by the conversion of the Marquess of Winchester's House, lately the Spanish Embassadour's, into a new Street; the like of Alderman ‖ Freeman's, and La Motte's near the Exchange; the like of the Earl of Arundel's in Loth-bury; the like of the Bishop of London's Palace, the Dean of Paul's, and the Lord River's House now in hand; as also of the Duke's-Place, and others heretofore.
9. Of the sixteen Parishes, next without the Walls, Saint Giles Cripplegate hath been most enlarged, next to that Saint Olaves Southwark, then Saint Andrew's Holborn, then White-Chappel, the difference in the rest not being considerable.
10. Of the Out-Parishes, now called ten, formerly nine, and before that eight, Saint Giles's and Saint Martin's in the Fields are most increased, notwithstanding Saint Paul's Covent-Garden was taken out of them both.
11. The general Observation, which arises from hence, is, That the City of London gradually removes Westward, and did not the Royal Exchange and London-Bridg stay the Trade, it would remove much faster: for Leaden-Hall-street, Bishop's-Gate, and part of Fen-Church-street, have lost their Ancient Trade; Grace-Church-street indeed keeping it self yet entire, by reason of its conjunction with, and relation to London-Bridg. ‖
12. Again, Canning-street and Watlin-street, have lost their Trade of Woollen-Drapery to Paul's Church-Yard, Ludgate hill, and Fleet-street: the Mercery is gone from out of Lumbard-street and Cheap-side into Pater-Noster-Row and Flect-street.
13. The reasons whereof are, That the King's Court (in old times frequently kept in the City) is now always at Westminster. Secondly, the use of Coaches, whereunto the narrow Streets of the old City are unfit, hath caused the building of those broader Streets in Covent-Garden, &c.
14. Thirdly, where the Consumption of a Commodity is, viz. among the Gentry, the Venders of the same must seat themselves.
15. Fourthly, the cramming up of the void spaces and Gardens within the Walls with Houses, to the prejudice of Light and Air, have made men build new ones, where they less fear those inconveniencies.
16. Conformity in Building to other civil Nations hath disposed us to let our old Wooden dark Houses fall to decay, and to build new ones, whereby to answer all the ends above-mentioned.
17. Where note, That when Lud-gate was the only Western Gate of the City, little ‖ Building was Westward thereof: but, when Holborn began to increase, New-gate was made. But now both these Gates are not sufficient for the Communication between the Walled City, and its enlarged Western Suburbs, as daily appears by the intolerable stops and embarasses of Coaches near both these Gates, especially Lud-gate.
Of the Inequality of Parishes.
1. BEfore we pass from hence, we shall offer to consideration the Inequality of Parishes in and about London, evident in the proportion of their respective Burials; for in the same year were Buried in Cripple-gate-Parish 1191, that but twelve died in Trinity-Minories, Saint Saviour's Southwark, and Botolph's Bishops-gate, being of the middle size, as burying five and 600 per Annum: so that Cripple-gate is an hundred times as big as the Minories, and 200 times as big as Saint John the Evangelist's, Mary-Coal-Church, Bennet's-Grace-Church, Matthew-Friday-street, ‖ and some others within the City.
2. Hence may arise this Question, Wherefore should this Inequality be continued? If it be Answered, Because that Pastours of all sorts, and sizes of Abilities, may have Benefices, each man according to his merit: we Answer, That a two hundredth part of the best Parson's learning is scarce enough for a Sexton. But besides, there seems no reason of any difference at all, it being as much Science to save one single Soul, as one thousand.
3. We incline therefore to think the Parishes should be equal1 , or near, because, in the Reformed Religions, the principal use of Churches is to Preach in: now the bigness of such a Church ought to be no greater, than that unto which the voice of a Preacher of middling Lungs will easily extend; I say easily, because they speak an hour or more together.
4. The use of such large Churches, as Paul's, is now wholly lost, we having no need of saying perhaps fifty Masses all at one time; nor of making those grand Processions frequent in the Romish Church; nor is the shape of our Cathedral proper at all for our Preaching Auditories, but rather the Figure of an Amphi-Theater with Galleries, gradually over-looking ‖ each other: for unto this Condition the Parish-Churches of London are driving apace, as appears by the many Galleries every day built in them.
5. Moreover, if Parishes were brought to the size of Coalman-street, Alhallows-Barking, Christ-Church, Black-Friers, &c. in each whereof die between 100 and 150 per Annum, then an hundred Parishes would be a fit and equal Division of this great charge, and all the Ministers (some whereof have now scarce fourty pounds per Annum) might obtain a subsistence.
6. And lastly, The Church-Wardens and Over-seers of the Poor might find it possible to discharge their Duties, whereas now in the greater Out-Parishes many of the poorer Parishioners through neglect do perish, and many vicious persons get liberty to live as they please, for want of some heedful Eye to overlook them. ‖
Of the number of Inhabitants.
I Have been several times in company with men of great experience in this City, and have heard them talk seldom under Millions of People to be in London1 : all which I was apt enough to believe, until, on a certain day, one of eminent Reputation was upon occasion asserting, That there was in the year 1661 two Millions of People more than Anno 1625 before the great Plague. I must confess, that, until this provocation, I had been frighted, with that mis-understood Example of David1 , from attempting any computation of the People of this populous place; but hereupon I both examined the lawfulness of making such Enquiries, and, being satisfied thereof, went about the work it self in this manner: viz.
2. First, I imagined, That, if the Conjecture of the worthy Person afore-mentioned had any truth in it, there must needs be about six or seven Millions of People in London ‖ now; but, repairing to my Bills, I found, that not above 15000 per Annum were buried; and consequently, that not above one in four hundred must die per Annum, if the Total were but six Millions.
3. Next considering, That it is esteemed an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer2 , I supposed it was the same, that one of any ten might die within one year. But when I considered, that of the 15000 afore-mentioned about 5000 were Abortive and Still-born, or died of Teeth, Convulsion, Rickets, or as Infants, and Chrysoms, and Aged; I concluded, that of Men and Women, between ten and sixty, there scarce died 10000 per Annum in London, which number being multiplied by 102 , there must be but 100003 in all, that is not the part of what the Alderman imagined. These were but sudden thoughts on both sides, and both far from truth, I thereupon endeavoured to get a little nearer, thus: viz.
4. I considered, that the number of Child-bearing Women might be about double to the Births: forasmuch as such Women, one with another, have scarce more than one Child in two years. The number of Births I found, by those years wherein the Registries were well kept, to have been somewhat less than ‖ the Burials. The Burials in these late years at a Medium are about 13000, and consequently the Christenings not above 12000. I therefore esteemed the number of Teeming-Women to be 24000: then I imagined, that there might be twice as many Families, as of such Women; for that there might be twice as many Women Aged between 16 and 76, as between 16 and 40, or between 20 and 44; and that there were about eight Persons in a Family, one with another, viz. the Man and his Wife, three Children and three Servants or Lodgers: now 8 times 48000 makes 384000.
5. Secondly, I find, by telling the number of Families in some Parishes within the Walls, that 3 out of 11 Families per annum have died: wherefore, 13000 having died in the whole, it should follow, there were 480001 Families according to the last-mentioned Account.
6. Thirdly, the Account, which I made of the Trained-Bands and Auxiliary-Souldiers doth enough justifie this Account.
7. And lastly, I took the Map of London set out in the year 1658 by Richard Newcourt2 , drawn by a Scale of Yards. Now I ghessed that in 100 Yards square there might be about 54 Families, supposing every House ‖ to be 20 Foot in the front: for on two sides of the said square there will be 100 Yards of Housing in each, and in the two other sides 80 each; in all 360 Yards: that is, 54 Families in each square, of which there are 220 within the Walls, making in all 11880 Families within the Walls. But forasmuch as there die within the Walls about 3200 per Annum, and in the whole 13000; it follows, that the Housing within the Walls is ¼ part of the whole, and consequently, that there are 47520 Families in and about London, which agrees well enough with all my former computations: the worst whereof doth sufficiently demonstrate, that there are two Millions3 of People in London, which nevertheless most men do believe, as they do, that there be three Women for one Man, whereas there are fourteen Men for thirteen Women, as elsewhere hath been said1 .
8. We have (though perhaps too much at Random) determined the number of the Inhabitants of London2 to be about 384000: the which being granted, we assert, that 199112 are Males, and 184186 Females.
9. Whereas we have found3 , that of 100 quick Conceptions about 36 of them die before they be six years old, and that perhaps but one surviveth 764 ; we having seven Decads ‖ between six and 76, we sought six mean proportional numbers5 between 64, the remainder, living at six years, and the one, which survives 76, and find, that the numbers following are practically near enough to the truth; for men do not die in exact proportions, nor in Fractions, from whence arises this Table following.
Viz. Of an hundred there die within the first six years6 36
10. From whence it follows, that of the said 100 conceived, there remain alive at six years end 64.
11. It follows also, That of all which have been conceived, there are now alive 40 per Cent. above sixteen years old, 25 above twenty six years old, & sic deinceps, as in the above-Table. There are therefore of Aged between 16 and 56 the number of 40, less by six, viz. 34; of between 26 and 66 the number of 25, less by three, viz. 22: & sic deinceps.
Wherefore, supposing there be 199112 Males, and the number between 16 and 56 being 34; it follows, there are 34 per Cent. of all those Males fighting Men in London, that is 67694, viz. near 70000; the truth whereof I leave to examination, only the ⅕ of 67694, viz. 13539, is to be added for Westminster, Stepney, Lambeth, and the other distant Parishes; making in all 81233 fighting Men.
12. The next enquiry will be, In how long time the City of London shall, by the ordinary proportion of Breeding and dying, double its breeding People?1 I answer, In about seven years, and (Plagues considered) eight. Wherefore, since there be 24000 pair of Breeders, that is ⅛ of the whole, it follows, that in eight times eight years the whole People of the City shall double, without the access of Forreiners: the which contradicts not ‖ our Account of its growing from two to five in 56 years with such accesses
13. According to this proportion, one couple, viz. Adam and Eve, doubling themselves every 64 years of the 5610 years1 , which is the Age of the World according to the Scriptures, shall produce far more People than are now in it. Wherefore the World is not above 100 thousand years older2 , as some vainly imagine, nor above what the Scripture makes it.
Of the Country-Bills.
WE have, for the present, done with our Observations upon the Accounts of Burials and Christenings in and about London; we shall next present the Accounts of both Burials, Christenings, and also of Weddings in the Country, having to that purpose inserted Tables of 90 years for a certain Parish in Hantshire3 , being a place neither famous for Longevity and Healthfulness, nor for the contrary. Upon which Tables we observe, ‖
1. That every Wedding, one with another, produces four Children, and consequently that that is the proportion of Children which any Marriageable Man or Woman may be presumed shall have. For, though a man may be Married more than once, yet, being once Married, he may die without any Issue at all.
2. That in this Parish there were born 15 Females for 16 Males, whereas in London there were 13 for 14, which shews, that London is somewhat more apt to produce Males than the Country. And it is possible, that in some other places there are more Females born than Males: which, upon this variation of proportion, I again recommend to the examination of the curious.
3. That in the said whole 90 years the Burials of the Males and Females were exactly equal, and that in several Decads they differed not part; That in one of the two Decads, wherein the difference was very notorious, there were Buried of Males 337, and of Females but 284, viz. 53 difference, and in the other there died contrariwise 338 Males, and 386 Females, differing 46.
4. There are also Decads, where the Birth of Males and Females differ very much, viz. about 60. ‖
5. That in the said 90 years there have been born more than buried in the said Parish (the which, both 90 years ago, and also now, consisted of about 2700 Souls) but 1059, viz. not 12 per Annum, one year with another.
6. That these 1059 have in all probability contributed to the increase of London; since, as was said even now, it neither appears by the Burials, Christenings, or by the built of new housing, that the said Parish is more populous now, than 90 years ago, by above two or 300 Souls. Now, if all other places send about ⅓ of their increase, viz. about one out of 900 of their Inhabitants Annually to London, and that there be 14 times as many People in England as there be in London (for which we have given some Reasons1 ) then London increases by such Advenœ every year above 6000: the which will make the Account of Burials to swell about 200 per Annum, and will answer the increases we observe. It is clear, that the said Parish is increased about 300, and it is probable that three or four hundred more went to London; and it is known, That about 400 went to New-England, the Caribe-Islands, and New-found-Land, within these last fourty years. ‖
7. According to the Medium of the said whole 90 years, there have been five Christenings for four Burials, although in some single Years and Decads there have been three to two, although sometimes (though more rarely) the Burials have exceeded the Births, as in the case of Epidemical Diseases.
8. Our former Observation1 , That healthful years are also the most fruitful, is much confirmed by our Country Accounts; for, 70 being our Standard for Births, and 58 for Burials, you shall find, that where fewer than 58 died, more than 70 were born. Having given you a few instances thereof, I shall remit you to the Tables for the general proof of this Assertion: Viz. Anno 1633, when 103 were born, there died but 29. Now, in none of the whole 90 years, more were born than 103, and but in one fewer than 29 died, viz. 28 Anno 1658. Again Anno 1568, when 93 were born, but 42 died. Anno 1584, when 90 were born, but 41 died. Anno 1650, when 86 were born. but 52 died. So that by how much more are born, by so much (as it were) the fewer die. For when 103 were born, but 29 died: but when but 86 were born, then 52 died.
On the other side, Anno 1638, when 156 died per Annum, which was the greatest year ‖ of Mortality, then less than the meer Standard 70,. viz. but 66, were born. Again Anno 1644, when 137 died, but 59 were born. Anno 1597, when 117 died, but 48 were born. And Anno 1583, when 87 died, but 59 were born.
A little Irregularity may be found herein, as that Anno 1612, when 116 died (viz. a number double to our Standard 58, yet) 87 (viz. 17 above the Standard 70) were born. And that when 89 died, 75 were born: but these differences are not so great, nor so often, as to evert our Rule, which, besides the Authority of these Accounts, is probable in it self.
9. Of all the said 90 years the year 1638 was the most Mortal; I therefore enquired, whether the Plague was then in that Parish, and having good satisfaction that it was not, (which I rather believe, because that the Plague was not then considerable at London) but that it was a Malignant Fever, raging so fiercely about Harvest, that there appeared scarce hands enough to take in the Corn: which argues, considering there were 2700 Parishioners, that seven might be sick for one that died: whereas of the Plague more die than recover. Lastly, these People lay longer sick than is usual in the Plague, nor was there any mention of Sorcs, Swellings, Blew-Tokens, ‖ &c. among them. It follows, that the proportion between the greatest and the least Mortalitics in the Country are far greater than at London: Forasmuch as the greatest 156 is above quintuple unto 28 the least, whereas in London (the Plague excepted, as here it hath been) the number of Burials upon other Accounts within no Decad of years hath been double, whereas in the Country it hath been quintuple, not only within the whole ninety years, but also within the same Decad: for Anno 1633 there died but 29, and Anno 1638 the above-mentioned number of 156. Moreover, as in London, in no Decad, the Burials of one year are double to those of another: so in the Country they are seldom not more than so; as by this Table appears1 .
Which shews, that the opener and freer Airs are most subject both to the good and bad Impressions, and that the Fumes, Steams and Stenches of London do so medicate and impregnate the Air about it, that it becomes capable of little more, as if the said Fumes rising out of London met with, opposed and justled backwards the Influences falling from above, or resisted the Incursion of the Country-Airs.
10. In the last Paragraph we said, that the Burials in the Country were sometime quintuple to one another, but of the Christenings we affirm, that within the same Decad they are seldom double, as appears by this Table, viz.1 .
Now, although the disproportions of Births be not so great as that of Burials, yet these disproportions are far greater than at London: for let it be shewn in any of the London Bills, that within two years the Christenings have decreased ½, or increased double, as they did Anno 1584, when 90 were born, and Anno 1586, wherein were but 45: or to rise from 52, as Anno 1593, to 71, as in the next year 1594. Now these disproportions both in Births and Burials confirm what hath been before asserted1 , That Healthfulness and Fruitfulness go together, as they would not, were there not disproportions in both, although proportional.
11. By the Standard of Burials in this Parish I thought to have computed the number of Inhabitants in it, viz. by multiplying 58 by 41 , which made the Product 232, the number of Families. Hereupon I wondred, that a Parish containing a large Market-Town, and 12 Miles compass, should have but 232 Houses; I then multiplyed 232 by 8, the Product whereof was 1856, thereby hoping to have had the number of the Inhabitants, as I had for London2 : but when upon enquiry, I found there had been 2100 Communicants in that Parish, in the time of a Minister who forced too many into that Ordinance, and ‖ that 1500 was the ordinary number of Communicants in all times; I found also, that forasmuch as there were near as many under 16 years old, as there are above3 , viz. Communicants, I concluded, that there must be about 2700 or 2800 Souls in that Parish: from whence it follows, that little more than one of 50 dies in the Country, whereas in London it seems manifest, that about one in 32 dies4 , over and above what dies of the Plague.
12. It follows therefore from hence, what I more faintly asserted in the former Chapter5 , that the Country is more healthful than the City; that is to say, although men die more regularly, and less per saltum in London, than in the Country, yet, upon the whole matter, there die fewer per rata; so as the Fumes, Steams, and Stenches above-mentioned, although they make the Air of London more equal, yet not more Healthful.
13. When I consider, That in the Country seventy are Born for fifty eight Buried, and that before the year 1600 the like happened in London, I considered, whether a City, as it becomes more populous, doth not, for that very cause, become more unhealthful: and inclined to believe, that London now is more unhealthful than heretofore; partly for that ‖ it is more populous, but chiefly because I have heard, that sixty years ago few Sea-Coals were burnt in London, which are now universally used. For I have heard, that Newcastle is more unhealthful than other places and that many People cannot at all endure the smoak of London, not only for its unpleasantness, but for the suffocations which it causes1 .
14. Suppose, that Anno 1569 there were 2400 Souls in that Parish, and that they increased by the Births 70, exceeding the Burials 58, it will follow, that the said 2400 cannot double under 200. Now, if London be less healthful than the Country, as certainly it is, the Plague being reckoned in, it follows, that London must be doubling it self by generation in much above 2002 : but if it hath increased from 2 to 5 in 54, as aforesaid, the same must be by reason of transplantation out of the country. ‖
IT may be now asked, To what purpose tends all this laborious bustling and groping? To know,
To this I might answer in general, by saying, that those, who cannot apprehend the reason of these Enquiries, are unfit to trouble themselves to ask them.
2. I might answer by asking, Why so many have spent their times and Estates about the Art of making Gold? which, if it were much known, would only exalt Silver into the place which Gold now possesseth; and if it were known but to some one Person, the same single Adeptus could not, nay, durst not enjoy it, but must be either a Prisoner to some Prince, and Slave to some Voluptuary, or else skulk obscurely up and down for his privacy and concealment.
3. I might answer, That there is much pleasure in deducing so many abstruse and unexpected inferences out of these poor despised Bills of Mortality; and in building upon that ground, which hath lain waste these eighty years. And there is pleasure in doing something new, though never so little, without pestering the World with voluminous Transcriptions. ‖
4. But I answer more seriously, by complaining, That whereas the Art of Governing, and the true Politicks, is how to preserve the Subject in Peace and Plenty; that men study only that part of it which teacheth how to supplant and over-reach one another, and how, not by fair out-running, but by tripping up each other's heels, to win the Prize.
Now, the Foundation or Elements of this honest harmless Policy is to understand the Land, and the hands of the Territory, to be governed according to all their intrinsick and accidental differences: As for example; It were good to know the Geometrical Content, Figure, and Situation of all the Lands of a Kingdom, especially according to its most natural, permanent, and conspicuous Bounds. It were good to know how much Hay an Acre of every sort of Meadow will bear; how many Cattel the same weight of each sort of Hay will feed and fatten; what quantity of Grain and other Commodities the same Acre will bear in one, three, or seven years, communibus Annis; unto what use each soil is most proper. All which particulars I call the intrinsick value: for there is also another value meerly accidental, or extrinsick, consisting of the Causes why a parcel of Land, ‖ lying near a good Market, may be worth double to another parcel, though but of the same intrinsick goodness; which answers the Queries, why Lands in the North of England are worth but sixteen years purchase, and those of the West above eight and twenty. It is no less necessary to know how many People there be of each Sex, State, Age, Religion, Trade, Rank, or Degree, &c. by the knowledge whereof, Trade and Government may be made more certain and Regular; for, if men knew the People, as aforesaid, they might know the consumption they would make, so as Trade might not be hoped for where it is impossible. As for instance, I have heard much complaint, that Trade is not set in some of the South-western and North-western Parts of Ireland, there being so many excellent Harbours for that purpose; whereas in several of those places I have also heard, that there are few other Inhabitants, but such as live ex sponte creatis, and are unfit Subjects of Trade, as neither employing others, nor working themselves.
Moreover, if all these things were clearly and truly known (which I have but ghessed at) it would appear, how small a part of the People work upon necessary Labours and ‖ Callings, viz. how many Women and Children do just nothing, only learning to spend what others get; how many are meer Voluptuaries, and as it were meer Gamesters by Trade; how many live by puzling poor people with unintelligible Notions in Divinity and Philosophy; how many by perswading credulous, delicate, and ligitious Persons, that their Bodies or Estates are out of Tune, and in danger; how many by fighting as Souldiers; how many by Ministries of Vice and Sin; how many by Trades of meer Pleasure, or Ornaments; and how many in a way of lazy attendance, &c. upon others: And on the other side, how few are employed in raising and working necessary Food and Covering; and of the speculative men, how few do study Nature and Things! The more ingenious not advancing much further than to write and speak wittily about these matters.
I conclude, That a clear knowledge of all these particulars, and many more, whereat I have shot but at rovers, is necessary, in order to good, certain, and easie Government, and even to balance Parties and Factions both in Church and State. But whether the knowledge thereof be necessary to many, or fit for others than the Sovereign and his chief Ministers, I leave to consideration. ‖
AN APPENDIX1 .
FOrasmuch as a long and serious perusal of all the Bills of Mortality, which this great City hath afforded for almost fourscore years, hath advanced but the few Observations comprised in the fore-going Treatise; I hope very little will be expected from the few scattered Papers that have come to my hands since the publishing thereof, especially from one that hath learned from the Royal Society, how many Observations go to the making up of one Theoreme, which (like Oaks and other Trees fit for durable Building) must be of many years growth.
The Accounts which follow, I reckon but as Timber and Stones; and the best Inferences I can make, are but as hewing them to a Square: as for composing a beautiful and ‖ firm Structure out of them, I leave it to the Architecture of the said Society, under whom I think it honour enough to work as a Labourer.
My first Observation shall be, That at Dublin2 the Number of Weekly Burials being about 20, and those of London about 300, as also the Number of People reckoned to be within the Limits of the Bills of Mortality at London to be 460000; it will follow, that the Number of Inhabitants of Dublin be about 30000, viz. about one fifteenth part of those in and about London, which agrees with that Number which I have heard the Books of Poll-Money, raised but little before the time of this Bill, have exhibited as the Number of Inhabitants of that City: So as although I do not think one single Weekly Bill is sufficient to ground such a Conclusion upon, yet I think that several yearly Bills are the best of the easie ways from which to collect the Number of the People.
Secondly, Although I take it for granted, that in Dublin there be more Born than Buried, because the same hath appeared to be so in London by the Bills of Mortality before the year 1641, when the Civil Wars began, and much more eminently in Amsterdam, as shall be hereafter shewn; yet there are but 14 set down as Christned; which shews, that ‖ the defect there is much the same as at London, whether the cause thereof be negligence in the Register, on non-conformity to Publick Order, or both, I leave to the curious. I believe the cause is also the same, forasmuch as I heard it to be a Maxim at Dublin, to follow, if not forerun, all that is, or as they understand will be, practised in London; and that in all particulars incident to humane affairs.
I have here inserted two other Country-Bills, the one of Cranbrook1 in Kent, the other of Tiverton2 in Devonshire, which with that of Hantshire3 , lying about the midway between them, give us a view of the most Easterly, Southerly, and Westerly parts of England: I have endeavoured to procure the like account from Northumberland, Cheshire, Norfolk, and Nottinghamshire; Thereby to have a view of seven Counties most differently situated, from whence I am sorry to observe that my Southern friends have been hitherto more curious and diligent than those of the North. The full observation from these Bills is, that all these three Country Bills agree, that each Wedding produces four Children, which is likewise confirmed from the Bills of Amsterdam. Secondly, they all agree that there be more Males born than Females, ‖ but in different proportions, for at Cranbrook there be 20 Males for 19 Females, in Hantshire, 16 for 15, in London 14 for 13, and at Tiverton, 12 for 11. Thirdly, I have inserted the Bills themselves, to the end that whoever pleases may examin, by all three together, the Observations I raised from the Hantshire Bill alone; conceiving it will be more pleasure and satisfaction to do it themselves, than to receive it from another hand. Only I shall add, as a new Observation from them all, that in the years 1648 and 1649, being the time when the people of England did most resent the horrid Parricide of his late Sacred Majesty, that there were but nine weddings in that year in the same places, when there were ordinarily between 30 and 40 per Annum; and but 16, when there were ordinarily at other times between 50 and 60. And it may be also observed that something of this black murder appeared in the years 1643 and 1644, when the Civil war was at the highest, but the contrary in the years 1654, 1655, &c. to prevent the new way of Marriage then imposed upon the people1 .
I have also supplied the Tables from the three general Bills for the years 1662, 1663, and 1664, which you will find to justifie ‖ the former Observations. But most eminently that which I take to be of most concernment, namely, of the difference between the numbers of Males and Females.
In the former Observations I did endeavour to deduce the number of the Inhabitants about the City of London, from the Bills of Mortality, concluding them to be about 4600002 , and did likewise set forth by what steps the people of the said City have increased from two to five since the year 16003 .
And particularly in what proportions the City increased in its several parts from time to time: I have now procured an Account of the Men, Women, and Children, which were Anno 16311 . found within the Liberties of London, which are circumscribed by Temple-Bar, Holborn-Bars, Smithfield-Bars, Shoreditch-Bars, White-chappel-Bars, and to the Tower Liberties, and Meal-market in Southwark; by which Account I hope it will appear, that I computed too many rather than too few, although the most part of men have thought otherwise. Nor do I wonder at it, since I never observed more enormous mistakes in any matter than concerning the number of people, Ale-houses, Coaches, Ships, Sea-men, Water-men, and several ‖ other Tradesmen, &c. The proportions of all which I have always thought is necessary to be known, in order to an exact Symmetry of the several members of a Common-wealth. I say, that the whole number of Inhabitants exceeds not 460000.
1. The number of Men, Women, and Children, found in the City and Liberties 1631, was 130178.
2. The Liberties of the City of London consist of the 97 Parishes within the Walls, and of ⅔ of the 16 Parishes next without them, which estimate of mine, nevertheless, I leave to examination.
The Liberties of London from the year 1631 to the year 1661 increased from 8 to 11, as may appear by the Tables, and consequently the said 130000 found in the year 1631, were increased to 179000, in Anno 1661.
Lastly, the Liberties of London in the year 1661 were in proportion to the whole, as 4 to 9, and consequently if there were 179000 souls, in the said Liberties, there was not above 403000 in the whole number of Parishes then comprehended in the Bills of Mortality.
The substance of the Amsterdam Bills of Mortality is, viz.
1. That there died in the several years of the Plague, as followeth: ‖
2. That there are eleven burying-places, besides the Hospital and Pest-house, 257 Streets and Lanes, with 43 Burgwalls and Grachts in that City.
3. That in seven years, beginning from the 15 of August 1617 to the same day 1624, there were Christned in the reformed Churches of Amsterdam 52537, and that there died in the same time 32532. So as there were 20005 more born than buried, besides those that were Christned in other Congregations. And in the same time were 16430 publisht Marriages.
4. That in the first week of September 1664 there died 1041, and in eighteen weeks before the Burials increased from 331 up to the said number of 1041, ‖ and in twelve weeks after decreased back to the like number of 330.
5. In February following there died but 118 a week, and the ordinary number of weekly Burials is about 100, so as London seems to be three times as big as Amsterdam.
6. I have likewise hapned on some other Accompts, relating to Mortalities of some great Cities of the World, of what Authority I know not, but as printed at Amsterdam 1664, viz. Anno 1619 there died in Grand Cairo in ten weeks 73500, without any visible diminution of the people.
7. Anno 1625 there died in Leyden 9597. Anno 1635 there died in the same City of Leyden from the 14 of July, to the 29 of December 14381, the greatest week of mortality being the latter end of October was 1452. This Plague in 15 weeks increased from 96, to the said number of 1452, and in ten weeks after decreased to 107. Answerable to the time of Increase and Decrease afore-mentioned in Amsterdam, Anno 1655, there died in 21 weeks from July to November 13287, the greatest week being Septemb. 25. when died 896.
8. At Harlem there died in the same year, in the months of August, September, October and November 5723. ‖
9. Anno 1637, in Constantinople there died 1500 per diem, but how long this Plague lasted, appeareth not.
10. The same year died in Prague 20000 Christians, and 10000 Jews.
11. Anno 1652 there died in Cracovia 17000 Christians, and 20000 Jews.
12. Anno 1653 there died in Dantzick in the last week of September 640, and in Conningsburg 490.
13. 1654 there died in Copenhagen for several weeks 700 per week.
14. Anno 1655 there died at Amsterdam and Leyden, as above-mentioned; and at Deventer 70, 80, and 90 per diem.
15. At Leeuwardeen 56 per diem.
16. Anno 1656 there was so sweeping a Plague at Naples, that there died of it at the latter end of May 1300, or 1400 per diem. The sixth of June there were 80000 sick, that the well were not able to help, or bury the dead; presently after there died 5000 in three days; in August it began to cease, after it had destroyed 300000 people.
17. The Town of Scala in Italy was quite dispeopled, and at Minory there scaped but 22. At Rome there died in the same year about 100 per diem for a great while together. ‖
18. 1657 There died at Genoa in Midsummer week 1200, afterwards there died 1600 per diem; insomuch that in the beginning of August they burnt the dead Corps for want of hands to bury them, which great Mortality decreased to five or six per diem before September was out. The total sum of all that died was about 70000.
19. At Bergen in Norway, Anno 1618 the Plague is represented to have been very terrible, by saying that there died 50 or 60 per diem, and that the whole City was in tears, that the Coffin-makers refused to make Coffins, that parents carried their children, and children their parents to the grave. But forasmuch as it was not mentioned how populous this place was, nor for how many days the Mortality continued, I can make but little estimate of this Plague, by what is above related.
20. The general Observations arising from the above-mentioned particulars, are as followeth:
First, That Northern, as well as Southern Countries are infested with great Plagues; although in the Southern Countries they are more vehement, and do both begin and end more suddenly.
21. Secondly, from the year 1652 the ‖ Plague was at Cracow, 1653 at Dantzick and Coningsburg, 1654 at Copenhagen, 1655 at Leyden and Amsterdam, and other Towns in the Netherlands, 1656 at Naples and Rome, 1657 at Genoa; So as it well deserves enquiry, whether the Plague in all these places were a sickness of the same kind, and did successively perambulate the several Countries above-mentioned; or whether it were a several disease in each place.
22. Thirdly, that the Plague is longer in rising to its heighth, than in decreasing to the same pitch; and the proportion thereof, in such cases where it hath most plainly appeared, is about three to two; for at Amsterdam it was eighteen weeks rising, and twelve decreasing; and at Leyden fifteen upon the increase, and ten decreasing.
It may be further observed, that in the four several times of great Mortality, the height was not always in the same month; for Anno 1592 it was the second week in August, when there died 1550 of all diseases; in the year 1603 the height was the second week of September, when there died 3129 of all diseases; in 1625 the extremity was in the third week in August, when there died 5205. Anno 1636 the like extremity was in the first week of October, there then dying 4005 of ‖ all diseases. In this place I think fit to intimate, that considering the present increase of the City from Anno 1625 to this time, which is from eight to thirteen, that until the Burials exceed 8400 per week, the Mortality will not exceed that of 1625. Which God for ever avert.
It may be further observed, that the time of the Plagues continuance at the height was of several durations, for Anno 1592 it continued from the first week in July to the second of September, without increasing or decreasing above 100 in 1600; whereas in 1603 it remain'd but three weeks at the state, decreasing near ¼ the next week after the height; Anno 1625 it remain'd not three weeks at a stay, increasing part the next week before the height, and decreasing as much the next week after. Anno 1636 it stood five weeks without increasing or decreasing above part afore-mentioned.
Concerning the disease of the Plague, Anno 1592 it increased to of the greatest number that died in twenty weeks; Anno 1603, it did the same in eleven; Anno 1625, in nine weeks; Anno 1636, as it was not so fierce as in the other years, so it was of longer continuance, as hath been else-where noted1 . ‖
The last thing I shall observe is, that in all the four great years of mortality above-mentioned, I do not find that any week the Plague increased to the double of the precedent week above five times.
Anno 1631. Ann. 7. Caroli I.
THE number of Men, Women, and Children, in the several Wards of London, and Liberties: taken in August 1631, by special command from the Right Honourable the Lords of His Majesties Privy Council2 .
The Table following contains the Number of Burials and Christenings in the seven Parishes hereafter mentioned, from the year 1636 unto the year 16592inclusive; all which time the Burials and christenings were jointly mentioned: the five last years the Christenings were omitted in the yearly Bills. This Table consists of seventeen Columns, the Total of all the Burials being contained in the sixteenth column: which Number being added to the Total in the Precedent Table of Burials and Christenings, makes the Total of every yearly or general Bill. ‖
The number of the Weddings, Christnhtgs and Burials that were in the Town and Parish of Tiverton, from March 1560 to January 1664; as appeareth by the Registers.
The number of the Weddings, Christnings and Burials that were in the Parish of Cranbrooke, from March 26. 1560 to March 24. 1649; (as appeareth by the Register) only in the years 1574 and 1575 the Christnings are wholly omitted, because the Register is very imperfect for the greater part of those years.
Dublin, A Bill of Mortality from the 26 of july to the 2d of August 1662.
Jacob Thring, Reg. ‖
Notes to the Table shewing how many died weekly.
Advertisements for the better understanding of the several Tables: videlicet,
Concerning the Table of Casualties consisting of thirty Columns.
THE first Column1 contains all the Casualties hapning within the 22 single years mentioned in this Bill.
The 14 next Columns contain two of the last Septenaries of years, which being the latest are first set down.
The 8 next Columns represent the 8 first years, wherein the Casualties were taken notice of.
Memorandum, That the 10 years between 1636 and 1647 are omitted as containing nothing Extraordinary, and as not consistent with the Incapacity of a Sheet2 . ‖
The 5 next Columns are the 8 years from 1629 to 1636 brought into 2 Quaternions, and the 12 of the 14 last years brought into three more; that Comparison might be made between each 4 years taken together, as well as each single year apart.
The next Column contains three years together, taken at 10 years distance from each other; that the distant years, as well as consequent, might be compared with the whole 20, each of the 5 Quaternions, and each of the 22 single years.
The last Column contains the total of all the 15 Quaternions, or 25 years1 .
The Number 229250 is the total of all the Burials in the said 20 years, as 34190 is of the Burials in the said three distant years. Where note, that the ⅓ of the latter total is 11396, and the of the former is 11462; differing but 66 from each other in so great a sum, videlicet scarce part. ‖
The Table of Burials and Christnings, consisting of 7 Columns.
IT is to be noted, that in all the several Columns of the Burials those dying of the Plague are left out, being reckoned all together in the sixth Column: whereas in the original Bills, the Plague and all other diseases are reckoned together, with mention how many of the respective totals are of the Plague.
Secondly, From the year 1642 forwards, the accompt of the Christnings is not to be trusted, the neglects of the same beginning about that year: for in 1642 there are set down 10370, and about the same number several years before, after which time the said Christnings decreased to between 5000 and 6000, by omission of the greater part.
Thirdly, The several Numbers are cast up into Octonaries, that Comparison may be made of them as well as of single years. ‖
The Table of Males and Females, containing 5 Columns.
First, The Numbers are cast up for 12 years; videlicet from 1629, when the distinction between Males and Females first began, until 1640 inclusive, when the exactness in that Accompt ceased.
Secondly, From 1640 to 1660 the Numbers are cast up into another total, which seems as good for comparing the Number of Males with Females, the neglect being in both Sexes alike, and proportionable.
The Tables concerning the Country-Parish, the former of Decads beginning at 1569, and continuing until 1658, and the later being for single years, being for the same time, are so plain, that they require no further Explanation than the bare reading the Chapter relating to them, &c.
APPENDICES TO GRAUNT's OBSERVATIONS.
Though Graunt appears to have written, in addition to the “Observations,” something on the advance of excise and something on religion, it is probable that nothing else from his pen has been preserved save the following brief note in Birch's History of the Royal Society, vol. 1. p. 294:—
19 Aug. 1663. “Mr Graunt brought in his account of the multiplication and growth of carps and salmons; which was ordered to be registered, as follows:
A pond new digged in Deptford for horses and other cattle to water in the year 1658, two male and two female carp being then put in with intention to breed; in the year 1662 the pond being tainted with fish, so that the cattle refused to drink, there were then taken out of this pond eight hundred, seventy and odd carps, of about nine inches in length, some more, some less; a great number of smaller fish being left for breeders.
And in the Severne and elsewhere it hath been experimented, by fastening of small pieces of tape or silk through the gills of young salmon, that in two years they have advanced to near three foot in length.”
The following abstract of the weekly bills of mortality of London for the years 1597–1600, hitherto unprinted, are among the Ashmole MSS. (824, f. 196–199) in the Bodleian Library. They fill a portion of the gap between the series of bills for 1578–1583 printed by Dr Creighton and Graunt's tables. They indicate the growth of population in the urban district and establish affirmatively the comparative freedom of the city from the plague during four years of peculiar interest in the history of the English drama.
|Week ending||Buried||Whereof of the Plague||Christened|
|Week ending||Buried||Whereof of the Plague||Christened|
|Week ending||Buried||Whereof of the Plague||Christened|
|Week ending||Buried||Whereof of the Plague||Christened|
NOTE ON THE “QUANTULUMCUNQUE.”
Sir William Petty's
Quantulumcunque concerning Money, 1682.
To the Lord Marquess of Halyfax.
SUppose that 20s. of new mill'd Money1 doth weigh 4 Ounces Troy, according to Custom or Statute. Suppose that 20s. of old Eliz. and James's Money, which ought also to weigh four Ounces Troy2 , doth weigh three Ounces Troy; and vary variously between 3 and 4 Ounces, viz. none under 3, and none full 4.
Suppose that much of the new mill'd regular Money is carried into the East-Indies, but none of the old light and unequal Money.
Qu. 1. Whether the old unequal Money ought to be new Coined, and brought to an equality?
Answ. It ought: Because Money made of Gold and Silver is the best Rule of Commerce and must therefore be equal, or else it is no Rule; and consequently no Money, and but bare Metal which was Money before it was worn and abused into Inequality.
Qu. 2. At whose Charge?
Answ. At the States Charge, as it now is: Because the Owner was no cause of its Inequality, but the States neglect in preventing and punishing such Abuses, which are remedied by new Coinage.
Qu. 3. Of what weight and fineness ought the new Shilling to be?
Answ. Of the same with the other present new Money, and which the old was of, when it was new: Because all must be like, all according to the Statute; and all fit to pay ancient Debts, according to what was really lent. ‖
Qu. 4. Suppose 20s. of old Money may make but 18s. of new, who shall bear the loss of the two shillings?
Answ. Not the States: Because men would clip their own Money: But the Owner himself must bear the loss, because he might have refused light and defective Money, or put it away in time; it being sufficient that he shall have new regular beautiful Money for his old unequal Money, at the States Charge, Ounce for Ounce weight.
Qu. 5. After this Reformation of Coin, Will more Silver be carried out of England, suppose into the East Indies, then before; and to the Damage of England?
Answ. Somewhat more: But none to the Damage of England, Eo Nomine; but rather to its Profit: Because the Merchant will be considered for the Manufacture of the new Money; besides the Metal of it, as he only was when he carried out Spanish Reals.
Qu. 6. Whereas the Merchant carries Scarlet and Silver to the Indies, will he not now carry only the new coined Silver?
Answ. The Merchant will buy as much Scarlet as he can for 100 new Shillings, and then consider whether he shall get more Silk in the Indies for that Scarlet than for another 100 of the like Shillings: And, according to this Conjecture, he will carry Scarlet or Shillings in specie, or part one, part the other, if he be in doubt.
Qu. 7. But will not England be impoverished by Merchants carrying out the said 100 Shillings?
Answ. No, if he bring home for them as much Silk as will yield above 100 Shillings, (perhaps 200 Shillings) in Spain, and then bring the same 200 into England: Or, if he bring home as much Pepper as an English man will give him 200 of the like Shillings for. So the Merchant and England shall both Gain by Exporting the 100 Shillings1 .
Qu. 8. But if the new Shilling were but ¾ths of the weight as formerly, then the Merchant would not meddle with them at all, and so secure this fear of Impoverishment?
Answ. The Merchant would Export then, just as before; Only he will give but ¾ so much Pepper, or other Indian Goods, for the new retrenched Shilling as he did for the old: And would accept in India ¾ as much Pepper as he formerly had for the old: And consequently there would be no difference, but among a few such Fools as take Money by its name, and not by its weight and fineness.
Qu. 9. If a Shilling was by new Coinage reduced to ¾ of its present weight, should we not thereby have ⅓ more of Money then now we have, and consequently be so much the richer? ‖
Answ. You would indeed have ⅓ part more of the new christned Shillings; but not an Ounce more of Silver, nor Money; nor could you get an Ounce more of Forreign Commodities for all your new multiplied Money than before; Nor even for any Domestick Commodities; but perhaps a little at first from the few Fools above mentioned. As for Instance; Suppose you buy a Silver Vessel from a Goldsmith weighing 20 Ounces, at 6s. per Ounce, making 6 Pounds2 or 24 Ounces of Coined Silver; now suppose that the said 6 Pounds were reduced from weighing 24 Ounces to weigh but 18 Ounces upon the new Coinage; but be still called 6 Pound even by the King's Proclamation; Can it be imagined that the Goldsmith will give his Vessel weighing 20 Ounces of wrought, for 18 Ounces of unwrought Silver? For the Workmanship of Money is of little value. Now the Absurdity is the same in all other Commodities, though not so demonstrable as in a Commodity whose Materials is the same with Money.
Qu. 10. Cannot Authority Command that men should give as much Commodity for the new retrencht Money, as for the old which weighed ⅓ part more?
Answ. Then the effect of such Authority would also be to take away ⅓ of all mens Goods, which are Commodities beyond Seas; and give the same to Forreigners, who would have them for ¾ of the usual quantity of Silver: And the same Authority would take away from the Creditor ⅓ of the Money which was due before the Proclamation.
Qu. 11. Whereas you suppose retrenching ¼ in the new Coinage; Suppose it was but , how would the matter be then?
Answ. Just the same: for Magis & minus non mutant speciem: But it were better you supposed that one Shilling were to be taken for 10 or 20, then the Absurdity would be it self so visible, as to need no such Demonstration, as is needful in such small matters as Common Sence cannot discern: For if the wealth of the Nation could be decupled by a Proclamation, it were strange that such Proclamations have not long since been made by our Governours.
Qu. 12. Will not some men, having occasions to buy Commodities in Forreign Parts, carry out all Money, and so not Vend or Export our own Commodities at all?
Answ. If some English Merchants should be so improvident, yet the Forreign Merchants would buy up such English Commodities as they wanted, with Money brought into England from their respective ‖ Countries, or with such Commodities as England likes better than Money. For the vending of English Commodities doth not depend upon any other thing, but the use and need which Forreigners have of them. But were it not a folly for an English man not to carry Lead into Turkey; but go thither with Money, in his Ballast, and so loose the Freight of the Lead, which he might sell there; And that a Ship should come from Turkey with Money, in her Ballast also, to fetch Lead from England, which might have been carried at first by the English Ship? No: The Art of a Merchant is to consider all those Matters, so as no Prince's Proclamation concerning the Weight and Denominations of Coins, signifies anything to Forreigners when they know it, nor to his own Subjects pro futuro, what e're Disturbances it may make amongst them pro prœterito. We say again; it were better for a Prince owing 20s. to say he will pay but 15s. than disguising his own particular purpose, to say that all Landlords shall henceforth take 15s. Rent for 20s. due to them by their Tenants Leases; and that he who hath lent 100l. on the Monday, (the Proclamation of Retrenchment coming out on Tuesday,) may be repaid on Wednesday with ¾ or 75l. of the very Money he lent two days before.
Qu. 13. Why is not our old worn unequal Money new Coined and equallized?
Answ. There may be many weak Reasons for it; But the only good one which I know, is, that bad and unequal Money may prevent hoarding, whereas weighty, fine, and beautiful Money doth encourage it in some few timorous Persons, but not in the Body of Trading men. Upon the account of Beauty our Britannia Half pence1 were almost all horded as Medals till they grew common; For if but 100 of those piece had been Coined, they would, for their Work and Rarity, have been worth above 5s. each, which for their Matter are not worth that Half penny they pass for: For in them, Materiam superabat Opus.
Qu. 14. Why hath Money been raised, or retrencht, or imbased by many wise States, and so often?
Answ. When any State doth these things, they are like Bankrupt Merchants, who Compound for their Debts by paying 16s. 12s. or 10s. in the pound; Or forcing their Creditors to take off their Goods at much above the Market rates. And the same State might as well have paid but ¾ of what they ow'd, as to retrench their Money in General to ¾ of the known weight and fineness. And these practices have been compassed by Bankers and Cashiers, for oblique Considerations, from the Favourites of such Princes and States. ‖
Qu. 15. It is then the Honour of England that no such Tricks have been practiced, though in the greatest Streights that ever that State hath been in?
Answ. It hath been their Wisdom, and consequently their Honour to keep up a Rule and Measure of trade amongst themselves, and with all Nations.
Qu. 16. But is there no Case wherein Money may be justly and honourably raised?
Answ. Yes, in order to Regulation and Equalizing of Species of Coines; As when two Species of one Weight and Fineness are taken at different Rates, then the one may be raised or the other depressed: But this must be rated by the estimation of the whole World as near as it can be known, and not by any private Notion; and the like may be done between Gold and Silver1 .
Qu. 17. What do you think of the rising or falling of the Price of Lands, from this following Instance, viz. A piece of Land was sold 60 Years ago for 1000l. that is, for a 1000 Jacobusses; and the same Land is now sold for 1000l. or 1000 Guineas, and the Guinea is but ⅚ the weight of the Jacobus. Is the Land cheaper now than 60 Years ago?
Answ. It looks like a Demonstration that it is: Yet if Gold be not Money, but a Commodity next like to Money, and that Silver be only Money; then we must see whether 1000 jacobusses would then purchase no more Silver than 1000 Guineas will do now: For if so, the Land was heretofore and now sold for the same Quantity of Money, though not of Gold; and is neither risen nor fallen by what hath been instanced.
Qu. 18. What is the difference between retrenching or raising of Money, and imbasing the Mettle of the same, as by mixing Copper with Silver?
Answ. The first is the better of the two, if such Mixture be of no use in other things: For if 20s. which contains 4 Ounces of Silver, should be reduced to 3 Ounces of Silver, it is better than to add one Ounce of Copper to the same, in order to make 4 seeming Ounces as before: For if you come to want the said 3 Ounces of Silver mixt with Copper, you must lose the Copper, upon the Test, and the Charge of Refining also, which will amount to above 4 per cent.
Qu. 19. What do you object against small silver Money; as against Single Pence, Two Pences, &c.?
Answ. That the Coinage of small Pieces would be very chargeable, and the Pieces themselves apt to be lost, and more liable to wearing; for little of our old small Money is now to be seen, and our Groats are worn away to Three half Pence in Metal. ‖
Qu. 20. What do you say of Money made wholly of baseMetal such as Farthings, &c.?
Answ. That the want of Materials ought to be made up by the fineness of Coinage, to very near the intrinsick Value; or what is gained by the Want of either, to be part of the King's Revenue.
Qu. 21. Which is best, Copper or Tin, for this purpose?
Answ. Copper: Because it is capable of the most imitable and durable Coinage: though the Copper be Foraign, and Tin a Native Commodity. For suppose Copper and Tin of the same Value in England; yet if 100 Weight of Tin sent to Turky will fetch home as much Silk as will fetch above 100 of Copper from Sweden, in such Case the Difference between Native and Foreign is nothing.
Qu. 22. This Doctrine may extend to a free exportation of Money and Bullion, which is against our Laws: Are our Laws not good?
Answ. Perhaps they are against the Laws of Nature, and also impracticable: For we see that the Countries which abound with Money and all other Commodities, have followed no such Laws: And contrarywise, that the Countries which have forbid these Exportations under the highest Penalties, are very destitute both of Money and Merchandize.
Qu. 23. Is not a Country the Poorer for having less Money?
Answ. Not always: For as the most thriving Men keep little or no Money by them, but turn and wind it into various Commodities to their great Profit, so may the whole Nation also; which is but many particular Men united.
Qu. 24. May a Nation, suppose England, have too much Money?
Answ. Yes: As a particular Merchant may have too much Money, I mean coined Money, by him.
Qu. 25. Is there any way to know how much Money is sufficient for any Nation?
Answ. I think it may pretty well be guessed at; viz. I think that so much Money as will pay half a Years Rent for all the Lands of England, and a Quarters Rent of the Houseing, and a Weeks Expence of all the People, and about a Quarter of the Value of all the exported Commodities, is sufficient for that purpose. Now when the States will cause these things to be computed, and the Quantity of their Coins to be known, which the new Coining of their old Money will best do, then it may also be known whether we have too much or too little Money.
Qu. 26. What remedy is there if we have too little Money? ‖
Answ. We must erect a Bank, which well computed, doth almost double the Effect of our coined Money: And we have in England Materials for a Bank which shall furnish Stock enough to drive the Trade of the whole Commercial World.
Quest. 27. What if we have too much Coine?
Answ. We may melt down the heaviest, and turn it into the Splendor of Plate, in Vessels or Utensils of Gold and Silver; or send it out, as a Commodity, where the same is wanting or desired; or let it out at Intrest, where Intrest is high.
Qu. 28. What is Interest or Use-Money?
Answ. A Reward for forbearing the use of your own Money for a Term of Time agreed upon, whatsoever need your self may have of it in the mean while.
Qu. 29. What is Exchange?
Answ. Local Interest, or a Reward given for having your Money at such a Place where you most need the use of it.
Qu. 30. What is the Trade of a Banker?
Answ. Buying and selling of Interest and Exchange: Who is honest only upon the Penalty of losing a beneficial Trade, founded upon a good Opinion of the World, which is called Credit.
Qu. 31. You were speaking of base Money and Farthings, which are generally below the intrinsick Value, and therefore ought not to be permitted to increase ad infinitum. Is there any way to know how many were enough?
Answ. I think there is: viz. Allowing about 12d. in Farthings, to every Family; So as if there be a Million of Families in England (as I think there be) then about 50000l. in Farthings would suffice for Change; and if such Farthings were but ⅕ below the intrinsick Value, a Nation would pay but 10000l. for this Convenience: But if this way of Families be not Limitation enough, you may help it by considering the smallest Piece of Silver Money current in the Nation; which how much lesser it is, by so much lesser may the Number of Farthings be: The use of Farthings being but to make up Payments in Silver, and to adjust Accompts: To whihc end of adjusting Accompts let me add, that if your old defective Farthings were cryed down to five a penny, you may keep all Accompts in a way of Decimal Arithmetick, which hath been long desired for the ease and certainty of Accompts.
Qu. 32. What do you think of our Laws for limiting Interest? ‖
Answ. The same as limiting the Exportation of Money; and there may be as well Laws for limiting Exchange also: For Interest always carrieth with it an Ensurance praemium, which is very casual, in Ireland there was a time when Land (the highest Security) was sold for 2 Years Purchase: It was then naturally just to take 20, 30, or 40 per cent. Interest; whereas there the Law allows but 10. And since that time, Land being risen to 12 Years purchase, responsible Men will not give above. 8. And insolent1 . Men will offer Cent. per Cent. notwithstanding the Law. Again, suppose a Man hath 100l. of Land, worth 20 Years Purchase, and another 100l. in Houses, worth 12 Years and an other 100l. in Shipping, worth 2 Years Purchase; and another in Horses, worth 6 Months Purchase; Is it not manifest he must have a greater Yearly pramium for lending his House than his Land, his Ship than his House, and his House than his Ship? For if his Horse be worth 100l. he cannot hire him out for less than 10s.per diem, whereas the Land will not yield a Groat for the same time; and these Hires are the same with Interest.
LONDON Printed in the Year, 1695.
NOTE ON THE ESSAYS IN “POLITICAL ARITHMETICK.”
Concerning the Growth of the
Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences thereof.1682.
By Sir William Petty, Fellow of the ROYAL SOCIETY.
Printed by H. H. for Mark Pardoe, at the Black Raven, over against Bedford-House, in the Strand. 1683.
NOTE ON “ANOTHER ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC.”
To the Reader.
THe ensuing Essay concerning the Growth of the City of London was entituled [Another Essay]1intimating that some other Essay had preceded it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for that precedent Essay2 , have found that the same was about the Growth, Encrease, and Multiplication of Mankind, which Subject should in Order of Nature precede that of the Growth of the City of London, but am not able to procure the Essay itself, onely I have obtained from a Gentleman3 , who sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an Extract of a Letter from Sir William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must desire the Reader to be content therewith, till more can be had.had.
The Extract of a Letter concerning the scope of an Essay intended to precede Another Essay concerning the Growth of the City of (London), &c. An Essay in Political Arithmetick, concerning the Value and Encrease of People and Colonies.
THE scope of this Essay, is concerning People and Colonies, and to make way for Another Essay concerning the Growth of the City of London. I desire in this first Essay to give the World some light concerning the Numbers of People in England, with Wales, and in Ireland; as also, of the number of Houses, and Families, wherein they live, and of Acres they occupy.
2. How many live upon their Lands, how many upon their Personal Estates, and Comerce, and how many upon Art, and Labour; how many upon Alms, how many upon Offices and Publick Employments, and how many as Cheats and Thieves; how many are Impotents, Children, and decrepit Old men.
3. How many upon the Poll-Taxes in England, do pay extraordinary Rates, and how many at the Level1 .
4. How many Men and Women are Prolifick, and how many of each are Married or Unmarried.
5. What the Value of People2 are in England, and what in Ireland at a Medium, both as Members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as Slaves and Servants to one another; with a ‖ Method how to estimate the same, in any other Country or Colony.
6. How to compute the Value of Land in Colonies, in comparison to England and -Ireland.
7 How 10 thousand People in a Colony may be, and planted to the best advantage.
8. A Conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable Earth.
9. What spot of the Earths-Globe were fittest for a general and universal Emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy one anothers Labours and Commodities.
10. Whether the speedy Peopling of the Earth would make
- 1. For the good of Mankind.
- 2. To fulfil the revealed Will of God.
- 3. To what Prince or State the same would be most advantageous. ‖
11. An exhortation to all thinking Men to salve the Scriptures and other good Histories, concerning the Number of People in all Ages of the World, in the great Cities thereof, and elsewhere.
12. An Appendix concerning the different Number of Sea-fish and Wild-fowl, at the end of every thousand years, since, Noah's Flood.
13. An Hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles through) within the Globe of our Earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles thick.
14. What may be the meaning of Glorified Bodies, in case the place of the Blessed shall be without the Convex of the Orb of the fixed Stars, if that the whole System of the World was made for the use of our Earths-men. ‖
The Principal Points of this Discourse.
1. THAT London doubles in Forty Years, and all England in Three hundred and sixty Years.
2. That there be, Anno 1682. about Six hundred and seventy Thousand Souls in London, and about seven Millions four hundred Thousand in all England and Wales, and about twenty-eight Millions of Acres of Land1 .
3. That the Periods of doubling the People, are found to be in all Degrees, from between Ten, to Twelve hundred Years.
4. That the Growth of London must stop of its self, before the Year 1800.
5. A Table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the Number of People mentioned in them. ‖
6. That the World will be fully Peopled within the next Two Thousand Years.
7. Twelve Touch-stones2 , whereby to Try any Proposal, pretended for the Publick Good.
8. How the City of London may be made (Morally speaking) Invincible.
9. An Help to Uniformity in Religion.
10. That 'tis possible to increase Mankind by Generation four times more than at present.
11. The Plagues of London is the Chief Impediment and Objection against the Growth of the City.
12. That an Exact Account of the People is Necessary in this Matter. ‖
Of the Growth of the CITY of LONDON: And of the Measures, Periods, Causes, and Consequences thereof.
BY the City of London, we mean the Housing within the Walls of the Old City, with the LibertiesWhat is meant by London. thereof, Westminster, the Borrough of Southwark, and so much of the built Ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose Houses are contiguous unto, or within Call of those afore-mentioned. Or else we mean the Housing which stand upon the Ninety seven Parishes within the Walls of London; upon the Sixteen Parishes next, without them; the Ten Parishes of Westminster, and the Seven Parishes ‖ without them all; all which One hundred and thirty Parishes1 are comprehended within the Weekly Bills of Mortality2 .
The Growth of this City is Measured, 1. By the Quantity of Ground, or Number of Acres upon which itWhat is meant by the Growth of London. stands. 2. By the Number of Houses, as the same appears by the Hearth-Books and late Maps. 3. By the Cubical Content of the said Housing.
4. By the Flooring of the same. 5. By the Number of Days-work, or Charge of Building the said Houses. 6. By the Value of the said Houses, according to their Yearly Rent, and Number of Years Purchase. 7. By the Number of Inhabitants; according to which latter sense only, we make our Computations in this Essay.
Till a better Rule can be obtained, we conceive that the Proportion ‖ of the People may be sufficiently Measured by the Proportion of the Burials in such Years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary Healthfulness or Sickliness.
That the City hath Increased in this latter sense, appearsIn what Measures the City hath Increased. from the Bills of Mortality, represented in the two following Tables, viz. One whereof is a continuation for Eighteen years, ending 1682, of that Table which was Published in the 117th. pag. of the Book of the Observations upon the London Bills of Mortality, Printed in the Year 1676. The other sheweth what Number of People dyed at a Medium of two Years, indifferently taken, at about Twenty Years distance from each other. ‖
According to which latter Table, there dyed as followeth. ‖
The latter of the said two Tables.
There dyed in London, At a Medium between the Years.
|1604 and 1605||5135.||A.1|
|1621 and 1622||8527.||B.|
|1641 and 1642||11883.||C.|
|1661 and 1662||15148.||D.|
|1681 and 1682||22331.||E.|
Wherein Observe, That the Number C. is double to A. and 806 over. That D. is double to B.2 within 1906. That C. and D. is double to A. B. within 293. That E. is double to C. within 1435. That D. and E. is double to B. and C. within 3341. And that C. and D. and E. are double to A. and B. and C. within 17363 . And that E. is above Quadruple to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the People of London in forty Years, to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round ‖ Numbers, and without the trouble of Fractions. We also say, That 669930 is near the Number of People now in London, because the Burials are 22331. which Multiplyed by 30, (one dying Yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Observations4 ) maketh the said Number; and because there are 84 Thousand Tenanted Houses (as we are Credibly Informed5 ) which at 8 in each, makes 672 Thousand Souls; the said two Accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.
We have thus pretty well found out in what Number of Years (viz. in about 40,) that the City of London hath doubled, and the present Number of Inhabitants to be aboutThe People of London are about the Eleventh part of all England and Wales. 670 Thousand. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole Territory of England and Wales. In Order whereunto, we ‖
First say, That the Assessment of London is about an Eleventh part of the whole Territory1 , and therefore, that the People of the whole may well be Eleven times that of London, viz. about 7 Millions,The people of England about 7 Millions and 400 thousand. 369 Thousand Soúls; with which Account that of the Poll-money, Hearth-money2 , and the Bishops late Numbring of the Communicants3 , do pretty well agree; wherefore, although the said Number of 7 Millions, 369 Thousand, be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated Truth, yet it will serve for a good Supposition, which is as much as we want at present.
As for the time in which the People double, it is yet more hard to be found: For we have good Experience (in the said 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Observations) That ‖ in the Countrey, but one of fifty dye per Annum; and by other late Accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24 Births for 23 Burials, The which two points, if they were universally, and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say, that the People doubled but in about 1200 Years. As for Example: Suppose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part dye per Annum, then there shall dye 12 per Annum; and if the Births be as 24 to 23, then the Increase of the People shall be somewhat above half a Man per Annum, and consequently the supposed Number of 600, cannot be doubled but in 1126 Years, which to reckon in round Numbers, and for that the afore-mentioned Fractions were not exact, we had rather call 1200.
There are also other good Observations, That even in the Countrey, one in about 30, or 32 per Annum ‖ hath dyed, and that there have been five Births for four Burials1 . Now, according to this Doctrine, 20 will dye per Annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be Born, so as the Increase will be 5, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair Computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and there are also several other good Observations for other Measures.
I might here Insert, That although the Births in this last Computation be 25 of 600, or a Twenty fourth part of the People; yet that in Natural possibility, they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by some late Observations, the Teeming Females between 15 and 44, are about 180 of the said 600, and the Males of between 18 and 59, are about 180 also, and that every Teeming Woman can bear a Child ‖ once in two Years; from all which it is plain, that the Births may be 90. (and abating 15 for Sickness, Young Abortions, and Natural Barrenness) there may remain 75 Births, which is an Eighth of the People; which by some Observations we have found to be but a two and thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shewn to be Naturally possible. Now, according to this Reckoning, if the Births may be 75 of 600, and the Burials but 15, then the Annual Increase of the People will be 60; and so the said 600 People may double in 10 Years, which differs yet more from 1200 above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this Difficulty, and to temper those vast disagreements, I took the Medium of 50 and 30 dying per Annum, and pitch'd upon 40; and I also took the Medium between 24 Births and 23 Burials, and 5 Births for 4 Burials, ‖ viz. allowing about 10 Births for 9 Burials; upon which Supposition, there must dye 15 per Annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the Births must be 16 and two Thirds, and the Increase I, and two Thirds, or five Thirds of a Man, which Number compared with 1800 Thirds, or 600 Men, gives 360 Years for the timeThat the time of doubling is here and now 360 Years. of doubling (including some Allowance for Wars, Plagues, and Famine, the Effects thereof, though they be Terrible at the Times and Places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 Years, is no great Matter in the whole Nation For the Plagues of England in 20 Years hath carried away scarce an Eightieth part of the People of the whole Nation; and the late 10 Years Civil Wars, (the like whereof hath not been in several Ages before) did not take away ‖ above a fortieth part of the whole people.)
According to which Account or Measure of doubling, if there be now in England and Wales, 7 Millions 400 Thousand People, there were about 5 Millions 526 Thousand in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, Anno 1560. and about two Millions at the Norman Conquest, of which Consult the Dooms-day Book, and my Lord Hale's Origination of Mankind1
Memorandum, That if the People double in 360 Years, that the present 320 Millions computed by some320 Millions now in the World. Learned Men, (from the Measures of all the Nations of the World, their degrees of being Peopled, and good Accounts of the people in several of them) to be now upon the Face of the Earth1 , will within the next 2000 Years so increase as to give one ‖ Head for every two Acres of Land in the Habitable part of the Earth. And then, according to the Prediction of the Scriptures, there must be Wars and great Slaughter, &c.
Wherefore, as an Expedient against the above-mentioned difference between 10 and 1200 Years, we do for the present, and in this Countrey admit of 360 Years to be the time wherein the People of England do double, according to the present Laws and Practice of Marriages.
Now, if the City double its People in 40 Years, and the present Number be 670 Thousand, and if the whole Territory be 7 Millions 400 Thousand, and double in 360 Years, as aforesaid; then by the underwritten Table it appears, that Anno 1840, the People of the City will be 10718880, and those of the whole Country but 10917389, which is but inconsiderably more. Wherefore ‖ it is Certain and Necessary that the Growth of the City must stop before the said Year 1840: And will be at its utmost height in the next preceding Period, Anno 1800, when the Number of the City will be Eight times its present Number, viz. 5 Millions 359 Thousand. And when (besides the said Number) there will be 4 Millions 466 Thousand to perform the Tillage, Pasturage, and other Rural Works Necessary to be done without the said City, as by the following Table, viz.
Now, when the People of London shall come to be so near the People of all England, Then it follows,That London will be at its highest growth, and eight times as great as now, Anno 1800. That the Growth of London must stop before the said Year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height Anno 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above four Millions for the Service of the Countrey and Ports, as aforesaid.
Of the afore-mentioned vast difference between and 1200 Years for doubling the People, we makeA digression of the use of the vast difference between 10 and 1200 Years of doubling. this use, viz. To justifie the Scriptures and all other good Histories concerning the Number of the People in Ancient Time. For supposing the eight Persons who came out of the Ark, Increased by a Progressive doubling in every 10 Years, might grow in the ‖ first 100 Years after the Flood from 8 to 8000, and that in 350 Years after the Flood (when abouts Noah dyed) to one Million, and by this time 1682, to 320 Millions (which by rational conjecture, are thought to be now in the World) it will not be hard to compute, how in the intermediate Years, the Growths may be made, according to what is set down in the following Table, wherein making the doubling to be 10 Years at first, and within 1200 Years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, but justifiable by Observations and the Scriptures for the rest, which Table we leave to be Corrected by Historians, who know the bigness of Ancient Cities, Armies, and Colonies in the respective Ages of the World, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the Measures and Periods for doubling (the extreams whereof we have demonstrated ‖ to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is written in the Holy Scriptures and other Authentick Books. For if we pitch upon any one Number throughout for this purpose, 150 Years is the fittest of all round Numbers; according to which, there would have been but 512 Souls in the whole World in Moses's time (being 800 Years after the Flood) when 603 Thousand Israelites of above 20 Years Old (besides those of other Ages, Tribes, and Nations) were found upon an exact Survey appointed by God1 , Whereas our Table makes 12 Millions. And there would have been but 8000 in David's Time, when were found 1100 Thousand of above 20 Years Old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the Survey instigated by Satan2 , whereas our Table makes 32 Millions. And there would have been but a quarter of a ‖ Million about the Birth of Christ, or Augustus his Time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, whereas our Table makes 100 Millions. Where Note, That the Israelites in about 500 Years between their coming out of Egypt to David's Reign, increased from 603 Thousand to 1100 Thousand.
On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less Number, as 100 Years, the World would have been over-peopled 700 Years since. Wherefore, no one Number will solve the Phœnomena, and therefore we have supposed several in Order to make the following Table, which we again desire Historians to Correct, according to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the People in each Age and Countrey of the World.
We did (not long since) assist a worthy Divine3 , writing against some ‖ Scepticks, who would have baffled our belief of the Resurrection, by saying, that the whole Globe of the Earth could not furnish Matter enough for all the Bodies that must Rise at the last Day, much less would the surface of the Earth furnish footing for so vast a Number; whereas we did (by the Method afore-mentioned) assert the Number of Men now living, and also of those that had dyed since the beginning of the World, and did withal shew, that half the Island of Ireland would afford them all, not only Footing to stand upon, but Graves to lye down in, for that whole Number; and that two Mountains in that Countrey were as weighty as all the Bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the World to the Year 1680, when this Dispute happened. For which purpose I have digressed from my intended purpose, to insert ‖ this Matter, intending to prosecute this hint further, upon some more proper Occasion.
A Table showing how the People might have doubled in the several Ages of the World.
Anno after the Flood.
|60||350||1 Million and more.|
|290||1000||16 In Moses Time.|
|400||1400||32 About Davids Time.|
|750||2700||128 About the Birth of Christ.|
It is here to be Noted, That in this Table we have assigned a different Number of Years for the time of doubling the People in the several Ages of the World, and might have done the same for the several Countries of the World, and therefore the said several Periods assigned to the whole World in the Lump, may well enough consist with the 360 Years especially assigned to England, between this Day, and the Norman Conquest; And the said 360 Years may well enough serve for a Supposition between this time, and that of the Worlds being fully Peopled; Nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the Growth of the City of London.
We have spoken of the Growth of London, with the Measures and Periods thereof, we come next to the Causes and Consequences of the same. ‖
The Causes of its Growth from 1642 to 1682, may be said to have been as followeth, viz. From 1642 to 1650, That Men came out of the Countrey to London, to shelter themselves from the Outrages of the Civil Wars, during that time; from 1650 to 1660, The Royal Party came to London, for their more private and inexpensive Living; from 1660 to 1670, the Kings Friends and Party came to receive his Favours after his Happy Restauration; from 1670 to 1680, The frequency of Plots and Parliaments might bring extraordinary Numbers to the City; But what Reasons to assign for the like Increase from 1604 to 1642, I know not, unless I should pick out some Remarkable Accident happening in each part of the said Period, and make that to be the Cause of this Increase (as Vulgar People make the Cause of every Mans Sickness to be ‖ what he did last eat) wherefore, rather than so to say quidlibet de quolibet; I had rather quit even what I have above-said to be the Cause of London's Increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some Natural and Spontaneous Benefits and Advantages that Men find by Living in great more than in small Societies; and shall therefore seek for the Antecedent Causes of this Growth, in the Consequences of the like, considered in greater Characters and Proportions.
Now, whereas in Arithmetick, out of two false Positions the Truth is extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary Suppositions, to draw forth some solid and consistent Conclusion, viz.
The first of the said two Suppositions is, That the City of London is seven times bigger than now, and that the Inhabitants of it are four ‖ Millions 690 Thousand People, and that in all the other Cities, Ports, Towns, and Villages, there are but two Millions 710 Thousand more.
The other Supposition is, That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and that the Inhabitants of it are but 96 Thousand, and that the rest of the Inhabitants (being 7 Millions 304 Thousand) do Co-habit thus, 104 Thousand of them in small Citics and Towns, and that the rest, being seven Millions 200 Thousand, do Inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one another, viz. in 1200 Thousand Houses, having about 24 Acres of Ground belonging to each of them, accounting about 28 Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent Islands; which any Man that pleases may Examine upon a good Map. ‖
Now, the Question is, In which of these two Imaginary states, would be the most convenient, commodious and comfortable Livings?
But this general Question divides it self into the several Questions, relating to the following Particulars, viz.
1. For the Defence of the Kingdom against Foraign Powers.
2. For preventing the Intestine Commotions of Parties and Factions.
3. For Peace and Uniformity in Religion.
4. For the Administration of Justice.
5. For the proportionably Taxing of the People, and easie Levying the same.
6. For Gain by Foraign Commerce.
7. For Husbandry, Manufacture, and for Arts of Delight and Ornament. ‖
8. For lessening the Fatigue of Carriages and Travelling.
9. For preventing Beggars and Thieves.
10. For the Advancement and Propagation of Useful Learning.
11. For Increasing the People by Generation.
12. For preventing the Mischiefs of Plagues and Contagions. And withal, which of the said two states is most Practicable and Natural, for in these and the like particulars, do lye the Tests and Touch-stones of all Proposals, that can be made for the Publick Good.
First, as to Practicable, we say, That although our said Extravagant Proposals are both in Nature possible, yet it is not Obvious to every Man to conceive, how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, ‖ and 49 times bigger than Anno 1560. To which I say, 1. That the present City of London stands upon less than 15001 Acres of Ground, wherefore a City, seven times as large may stand upon 10500 Acres, which is about equivalent to a Circle of four Miles and a half in Diameter, and less than 15 Miles in Circumference. 2. That a Circle of Ground of 35 Miles Semidiameter will bear Corn, Garden-stuff, Fruits, Hay, and Timber, for the four Millions 690 Thousand Inhabitants of the said City and Circle, so as nothing of that kind need be brought from above 35 Miles distance from the said City; for the Number of Acres within the said Circle, reckoning one2 Acre sufficient to furnish Bread and Drink-Corn for every Head, and two Acres will furnish Hay for every Necessary Horse; And that the Trees which may grow in the Hedge-rows of the ‖ Fields within the said Circle, may furnish Timber for 600 Thousand Houses. 3. That all live Cattel and great Animals can bring themselves to the said City; and that Fish can be brought from the Lands-end and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of Coals there is no doubt: And for Water, 20s. per Family (or 600 Thousand pounds per Annum in the whole) will serve this City, especially with the help of the New River. But if by Practicable be understood, that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned Proposals, I think it is not Practicable. Wherefore the true Question is, unto or towards which of the said two Extravagant states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz. Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present City? In Order where-unto we enquire (as to the first Question) which ‖ state is most Defensible against Forraign Powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned Housing, and a border of Ground, of 3 quarters of a Mile broad, were encompassed with a Wall and Ditch of 20 Miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a Million, or about a Penny in the shilling of the House-Rent for one Year) what Foraign Prince could bring an Army from beyond Seas, able to beat, 1. Our Sea-Forces, and next with Horse harrass'd at Sea, to resist all the fresh Horse that England could make, and then Conquer above a Million of Men, well United, Disciplin'd, and Guarded within such a Wall, distant everywhere 3 quarters of a Mile from the Housing, to elude the Granadoes and great Shot of the Enemy? 2. As to Intestine Parties and Factions, I suppose that 4 Millions 690 Thousand People United within this great ‖ City, could easily Govern half the said Number scattered without it, and that a few Men in Arms within the said City, and Wall, could also easily Govern the rest unarmed, or Armed in such manner as the Soveraign shall think fit. 3. As to Uniformity in Religion, I conceive, That if St. Martins Parish may (as it doth) consist of about 40 Thousand Souls, That this great City also may as well be made but as one Parish, with 7 times 130 Chappels, in which might not only be an Uniformity of Common Prayer, but in Preaching also; for that a thousand Copies of one Judiciously and Authentically Composed Sermon might be every Week read in each of the said Chappels without any subsequent Repetition of the same, as in the Case of Homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10 Thousand Parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, Holy-days, ‖ and other Extraordinary Occasions, there should be about 100 Sermons per Annum, making about a Million of Sermons per Annum in the whole:) It were a Miracle, if a Million of Sermons Composed by so many Men, and of so many Minds and Methods, should produce Uniformity upon the discomposed understandings of about 8 Millions of Hearers.
4. As to the Administration of Justice. If in this great City shall dwell the Owners of all the Lands, and other Valuable things in England; If within it shall be all the Traders, & all the Courts, Offices, Records, Juries, and Witnesses; Then it follows, that Justice may be done with speed and ease.
5. As to the Equality and easie Levying of Taxes, It is too certain, That London hath at some time paid near half the Excise of England; and that the people pay ‖ thrice as much for the Hearths in London as those in the Countrey, in proportion to the People of each, and that the Charge of Collecting these Duties, have been about a sixth part of the Duty it self. Now, in this great City the Excise alone according to the present Laws, would not only be double to the whole Kingdom, but also more equal. And the Duty of Hearths of the said City, would exceed the present proceed of the whole Kingdom. And as for the Customs, We mention them not at present.
6. Whether more would be gain'd by Foraign Commerce1 .
The Gain which England makes by Lead, Coals, the Freight of Shipping, &c. may be the same, for ought I see, in both Cases. But the Gain which is made by Manufactures, will be greater, as the Manufacture it self is greater and better. For in so vast ‖ a City Manufactures will beget one another, and each Manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby the Work of each Artisan will be simple and easie; As for Example. In the making of a Watch, If one Man shall make the Wheels, another the Spring, another shall Engrave the Dial-plate, and another shall make the Cases, then the Watch will be better and cheaper, than if the whole Work be put upon any one Man. And we also see that in Towns, and in the Streets of a great Town, where all the Inhabitants are almost of one Trade, the Commodity peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of Manufactures are made in one place, there every Ship that goeth forth, can suddenly have its Loading of so many several Particulars and Species as the Port whereunto she is bound ‖ can take off. Again, when the several Manufactures are made in one place, and Shipped off in another, the Carriage, Postage, and Travelling-charges will Inhance the Price of such Manufacture, and lessen the Gain upon Foraign Commerce. And lastly, when the Imported Goods are spent in the Port it self, where they are Landed, the Carriage of the same into other places, will create no surcharge upon such Commodity; all which particulars tends to the greater Gain by Foraign Commerce.
7. As for Arts of Delight and Ornament,
They are best promoted by the greatest Number of Emulators. And it is more likely that one Ingenious Curious Man may rather be found out amongst 4 Millions than 400 Persons. But as for Husbandry, viz. Tillage and Pasturage, I see no Reason, but the second state (when ‖ each Family is charged with the Culture of about 24 Acres) will best promote the same.
8. As for lessening the Fatigue of Carriage and Travelling,
The thing speaks it self, for if all the Men of Business, and all Artisans do Live within five Miles of each other; And if those who Live without the great City, do spend only such Commodities as grow where they Live, when the charge of Carriage and Travelling could be little.
9. As to the preventing of Beggars and Thieves,
I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make much difference in this particular; for Impotents (which are but one in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to work, through the evil Education of their Parents, ought (for ought I know) to be maintained ‖ by their nearest Kindred, as a just Punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find Work (though able and willing to perform it) by reason of the unequal application of Hands to Lands, ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Land-Lord till that can be done; for there needs be no Beggars in Countries, where there are many Acres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head, as there are in England. As for Thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause; For it is against Nature, that any Man should venture his Life, Limb, or Liberty, for a wretched Livelyhood, whereas moderate Labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas Moor, in the first part of his Utopia1 .
10. As to the propagation and Improvement of Useful Learning, ‖
The same may be said concerning it as was above-said concerning Manufactures, and the Arts of Delight and Ornaments; for in the great vast City, there can be no so odd a Conceit or Design, whereunto some Assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of Habitation may not be.
11. As for the Increase of People by Generation,
I see no great difference from either of the two states, for the same may be hindred or promoted in either, from the same Causes.
12. As to the Plague,
It is to be remembred that one time with another, a Plague happeneth in London once in 20 Years, or there-abouts; for in the last hundred Years, between the Years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great Plagues, viz. Anno 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to ‖ be remembred that the Plagues of London do commonly kill one fifth part of the Inhabitants. Now, if the whole People of England do double but in 360 Years, then the Annual Increase of the same is but 20000, and in 20 Years 400000. But if in the City of London there should be two Millions of People, (as there will be about 60 Years hence) then the Plague (killing one fifth of them, namely, 400000 once in 20 Years) will destroy as many in one Year, as the whole Nation can re-furnish in 20: And consequently the People of the Nation shall never Increase. But if the People of London shall be above 4 Millions (as in the first of our two Extravagant Suppositions is premised) then the People of the whole Nation shall lessen above 20000 per Annum. So as if People be worth 70l. per Head (as hath elsewhere been shown1 ) ‖ then the said greatness of the City will be a damage to it self and the whole Nation of 14 hundred Thousand pounds per Annum, and so pro rata, for a greater or lesser Number; wherefore to determine, which of the two states is best, (that is to say, towards which of the said two states Authority should bend the present state) a just Balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the Plague, with the Advantages accruing from the other Particulars above-mentioned; unto which Balance a more exact Account of the People, and a better Rule for the Measure of its Growth is Necessary, than what we have here given, or are yet able to lay down. ‖
IT was not very pertinent to a Discourse concerning the Growth of the City of London, to thrust in Considerations of the Time when the whole World will be fully Peopled; and how to justifie the Scriptures concerning the Number of People mentioned in them; and concerning the Number of the Quick and the Dead, that may Rise at the last Day, &c. Nevertheless, since some Friends liking the said Digressions and Impertinencies (perhaps as sauce to a dry Discourse) have desired that the same might be explain'd and made out. I therefore say as followeth.
1. If the Number of Acres in the Habitable part of the Earth, be under ‖ 50 Thousand Millions; if Twenty Thousand Millions of People, are more than the said Number of Acres will feed; (few or no Countries being so fully Peopled;) and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2000 Years) the present 320 Millions will exceed the said 20 Thousand Millions.
2. That the Number of all those who have dyed since the Flood, is the sum of all the Products made by Multiplying the Number of the doubling Periods mentioned in the first Column of the last Table, by the Number of People respectively affixed to them, in the third Column of the same Table; the said sum being Divided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per Annum, out of the whole Mass of Mankind) which Quotient is 12570 Millions; Whereunto may be added, for those that dyed before the Flood, enough to make the lastmentioned ‖ Number 20 Thousand Millions, as the full Number of all that dyed, from the beginning of the World, to the Year 1682; unto which, if 320 Millions, the Number of those who are now alive, be added, the Total of the Quick and the Dead, will amount but unto one fifth part of the Graves, which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two Bodies into any one Grave; for there be in Ireland 28 Thousand square English Miles, each whereof will afford about 4 Millions of Graves, and consequently above 114 Thousand Millions of Graves, viz. about 5 times the Number of the Quick and the Dead, which should arise at the last Day, in case the same had been in the Year 1682.
3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many Graves in Ireland, as sufficient for all that ever ‖ dyed; And if the Earth of one Grave weigh five times as much as the Body Interr'd therein, then a Turf, less than a Foot thick, pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the Bodies that ever were Buried; And may serve as well for that purpose, as the two Mountains afore-mentioned in the body of this Discourse. From all which it is plain, how madly they were mistaken, who did so petulantly vilifie what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.
M D C L X X X I.
State of that CITY.
By the Observator1 on the LONDON Bills of MORTALITY.
Printed for Mark Pardoe, at the Sign of the Black Raven, over against Bedford-house in the Strand. 1683.
NOTE ON THE DUBLIN “OBSERVATIONS.”
DUBLIN-Bills of Mortality, 1681.
State of that CITY.
THE Observations upon the London-Bills of Mortality have been a new Light to the World; and the like Observation upon those of Dublin, may serve as Snuffers to make the same Candle burn clearer.
The London-Observations flowed from Bills regularly kept for near One hundred years; but these are squeezed out of Six stragling London-Bills, out of Fifteen Dublin Bills, and from a Note of the Families and Hearths in each Parish of Dublin; which are all digested into the one Table or Sheet annexed, consisting of Three Parts, markt A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C, of Publick Oeconony, and even of that Policy which tends to Peace and Plenty. ‖
Observations upon the Table A.
1. THe Total of the Burials in London, (for the said Six stragling years mentioned in the Table A) is 120170; whereof the Medium or Sixth part is 20028; and exceeds the Burials of Paris, as may appear by the late Bills of that City.
2. The Births, for the same time, are 73683, the Medium or Sixth part whereof is 12280, which is about Five eighth parts of the Burials; and shews, that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplyed out of the Countrey, where are about Five Births for Four Burials, the proportion of Breeders in the Country being greater than in the City.
3. The Burials in Dublin for the said Six years, were 9865, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is, 1644, which is about the Twelfth part of the London-Burials; and about a Fifth part over. So as the people of London do hereby seem to be above Twelve times as many as those of Dublin.
4. The Births in the same time at Dublin, are 6157, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is 1026, which is also about five eighth parts of the 1644 Burials; which shews, that the ‖ proportion between Burials and Births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the Accompts are kept alike; and consequently are likely to be true, there being no Confederacy for that purpose: Which if they be true, we then say,
5. That the Births are the best way1 (till the Accompts of the people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the Increase and Decrease of People, that of Burials being subject to more Contingencies and variety of Causes.
6. If Births be as yet the measure of the People, and that the Births (as has been shewn) are as Five to Eight, then Eight fifths of the Births is the number of the Burials, where the year was not considerable for extraordinary Sickness or Salubrity; and is the Rule whereby to measure the same. As for Example: The Medium of Births in Dublin was 1026, the Eight fifths whereof is 1641, but the real Burials were 1644; so as in the said years they differed little from the 1641, which was the Standard of Health; and consequently, the years 1680, 1674, and 1668, were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said Number 1641; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same number. But the City was more or less Populous, as the Births differed ‖ from the Number 1026; viz. Populous in the years 1680, 1679, 1678, & 1668: For other causes of this difference in Births, are very occult and uncertain.
7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.
8. It hath already been observ'd by the London-Bills, That there are more Males than Females1 . It is to be further noted, that in these Six London-Bills also; there is not one instance either in the Births or Burials to the contrary.
9. It hath been formerly observ'd, That in the years wherein most dye, fewest are born, & vice versâ2 . The same may be further observ'd in Males and Females, viz. When fewest Males are born, then most dye: for here the Males dyed as Twelve to Eleven, which is above the mean proportion of Fourteen to Thirteen, but were born but as Nineteen to Eighteen, which is below the same.
Observations upon the Table B.
1. FRom the Table B, it appears, That the Medium of the Fifteen years Burials, (being 24199) is 1613, whereas the Medium of the other six years in the Table A, was 1644, and that the Medium of the Fifteen ‖ years Births (being in all 14765) is 984, whereas the Medium of the said other six years, was 10263 . That is to say, there were both fewer Births and Burials in these Fifteen years, than in the other six years; which is a probable sign that at a Medium there were fewer People also.
2. The Medium of Births for the Fifteen years being 984, whereof Eight fifths (being 1576) is the Standard of Health for the said Fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1576, being 4728, is the standard for each of the Ternaries of the Fifteen years within the said Table.
3. That 2952, the triple of 984 Births, is for each Ternary the Standard of Peoples increase and decrease from the year 1666 to 1680 inclusive, viz. The People increased in the second Ternary, and decreased from the same in the Third and Fourth Ternarys, but re-increased in the Fifth Ternary beyond any other.
4. That the last Ternary was withal very healthful, the Burials being but 4624, viz. below 4728, the Standard.
5. That according to this proportion of increase, the Housing of Dublin have probably increased also. ‖
Observations upon the Table C.
1. FIrst, from the Table C, it appears, 1. That the Housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five Hearths in each House one with another, but nearer five than four.
2. That in St. Warburghs Parish are near six Hearths to an House. In St. Johns five. In St. Michaels above five. In St. Nicholas within above six. In Christ-Church above seven. In St. James's, and St. Katherines, and in St. Michans, not four. In St. Kevans about four.
3. That in St. James's, St. Michans, St. Brides, St. Warburgh, St. Andrews, St. Michaels, and St. Patricks, all the Christnings were but 550, and the Burials 1055, viz. near double; and that in the rest of the Parishes the Christnings were five, and the Burials seven, viz. as 457 to 6341 . Now whether the cause of this difference were negligence in Accompts, or the greaterness of the Families, &c. is worth inquiring.
4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these Parishes ought to stand, some having most Families; some most Hearths, some most Births, and others most Burials. Some Parishes exceeding the rest in two, ‖ others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this Table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other.
5. The London-Observations reckon eight heads in each Family1 ; according to which estimation, there are 32000 Souls2 in the 4000 Families of Dublin; which is but half of what most Men imagine; of which but about one sixth part are able to bear Arms, besides the Royal Regiment.
6. Without the knowledge of the true number of People, as a Principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping Bills of Births and Burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious Conjectures and Calculations to deduce the number of People from the Births and Burials, may be Ingenious, but very preposterous.
7. If the number of Families in Dublin be about 4000, then Ten Men, in one week (at the Charge of about Five pound, Surveying Eight Families in an hour) may directly, and without Algebra, make an Accompt of the whole People, expressing their several Ages, Sex, Marriages, Title, Trade, Religion, &c. and those who survey the Hearths, or the Constables or Parish Clarks, (may, if required) do the same ex Officio, and without other ‖ Charge, by the Command of the Chief Governor, the Diocesan, or the Mayor3 .
8. The Bills of London have since their beginning, admitted several Alterations and Improvements; and eight or ten pound per annum surcharge, would make the Bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent Instrument of Government. To which purpose the Forms for Weekly, Quarterly, and Yearly Bills are humbly recommended, viz.1
A Weekly Bill of Mortality for the City of Dublin, Ending the day of 1681.
A Quarterly Bill of Mortality, Beginning and ending for the City of Dublin.
An Account of the People of Dublin for one year, Ending the 24th of March, 168½.
|Aged above 70 years.|
|Abortive and Still-born.|
|Gout, and Sciatica.|
|Consumption, and French Pox.|
|Dropsie, and Tympany.|
|Rickets, and Livergrown.|
|Head-ach and Megrim.|
|Epilepsie, and Planet.|
|Fever, and Ague.|
|Executed, Murder'd Drown'd.|
|Plague, and Spotted-Fever.|
|Griping of the Guts.|
|Scowring, Vomiting, Bleeding.|
|Neither of all the other sorts.|
WHereas you complain, that these Observations make no sufficient Bulk, I could answer you. That I wish the Bulk of all Books were less; but do never-the-less comply with you in adding what follows, viz.
1. That the Parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in them above Six hundred Families, and others under Thirty.
2. That, Thirteen Parishes are too few for Four thousand Families; the midling Parishes of London containing One hundred and twenty Families; according to which rate, there should be about Thirty three Parishes in Dublin.
3. It is said, that there are Eighty four thousand Houses or Families in London, which is Twenty one times more than are in Dublin; and yet the Births and Burials of London are but Twelve times those of Dublin: which shews that the Inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and streightned in their Housing, than those of London; and consequently, that to increase the Buildings of Dublin, will make that City more conformable to London.
4. I shall also add some Reasons for altering the present forms of the Dublin-Bills of Mortality, according to what hath been here recommended, viz.
1. We give the distinctions of Males and Females in the Births onely; for that the Burials must, at one time or another, be in the same proportion with the Births. ‖
2. We do in the Weekly and Quarterly Bills propose, that notice be taken in the Burials of what numbers dye above Sixty and Seventy, and what under Sixteen, Six, and Two years old; foreseeing good uses to be made of that distinction.
3. We do in the Yearly Bill, reduce the Casualties to about Twenty four, being such as may be discerned by common sense and without Art; conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the Account. And in the Quarterly Bills, we reduce the Diseases to Three Heads, viz. Contagious, Acute, and Chronical; applying this distinction to Parishes, in order to know how the different Scituation, Soil, and way of living in each Parish, doth dispose Men to each of the said Three Species: and in the Weekly Bills we take notice not only of the Plague, but of the other Contagious Diseases in each Parish; that strangers and fearful ‖ Persons may thereby know how to dispose of themselves.
4. We mention the Number of the People, as the Fundamental Term in all our proportions; and without which, all the rest will be almost fruitless.
5. We mention the number of Marriages made in every Quarter, and in every year; as also the proportion which Married Persons bear to the whole; expecting in such Observations to read the improvement of the Nation.
6. As for Religions, we reduce them to Three, viz. 1. Those who have the Pope of Rome for their Head. 2. Who are Governed by the Laws of their Country. 3. Thosè who rely respectively upon their own private Judgments. Now whether these distinctions should be taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many Reasons pro and con for the same: and therefore although we have mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to Authority. ‖
Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, And Burials in that
The Second Edition, Corrected and Enlarg'd.
By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, Fellow of the Royal Society.
LONDON: Printed for Mark Pardoe, at the Sign of the Black Raven, over against Bedford-House in the Strand. 1686.
NOTE ON THE “FURTHER OBSERVATIONS.”
In 1686 the Further Observations were prefixed to the Observations upon the Dublin Bills as issued in 1683, and the whole was put forward as a “second edition, corrected and enlarg'd.” In fact, however, the original Observations of 1683 were not even reprinted in 1686, the left-over sheets being utilized, and the only change being the suppression of the 1683 title given at p. 479. The following four pages, therefore, include all that was ever added to the 1683 Observations.
I Have not thought fit to make any Alteration of the first Edition, but have only added a New Table, with Observation upon it, placing the same in the front of what was before; which perhaps might have been as well placed after the like Table at the 8th Page of the first Edition.
Further Observations upon the Dublin Accompts of Baptisms and Burials, Houses and Hearths, viz.
THe Table hath been made for the Year 1682, wherein is to be noted, ‖
1. That the Houses which Anno 1671, were but 3850 are Anno 1682, 6025; but whether this difference is caused by the real encrease of Housing, or by fraud and defect in the former Accompts, is left to consideration. For the Burials or People have increased but from 1696, to 2263, according to which proportion, the 3850 Houses Anno 1671, should Anno 1682 have been but 5143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, when Farming the Hearth-mony was in agitation1 .
2. The Hearths have encreased according to the Burials, and ⅓ of the said increase more, viz. the Burials Anno 1671 were 1696, the ⅓ whereof is 563, which put together makes 2259, which is near the number of Burials Anno 1682. But the Hearths Anno 1671 were 17500, whereof the ⅓ is 5833, making in all but 23333; whereas the whole Hearths ‖ Anno 1682 were 25369, vis. ⅓ and better of the said 5833 more.
3. The Housing were Anno 1671, but 3850, which if they had encreased Anno 1682 but according to the Burials, they had been but 5143, or according to the Hearths, had been but 5488, whereas they appear 6025, encreasing double to the Hearths. So as 'tis likely there hath been some errour in the said Account of the Housing, unless the new Housing be very small, and have but one Chimney apiece, and that ¼ part of them are untenanted. On the other hand, 'tis more likely that when 1696 dy'd per An. there were near 6000; for 6000 Houses at 8 Inhabitants per House, would make the number of the People to be 48 Thousand, and the number of 1696 that died according to the Rule of One out of 30, would have made the number of Inhabitants about 50 Thousand: For which reason I continue to ‖ believe there was some Errour in the Accompt of 3850 Houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience to think that in II year, the Houses in Dublin have encreased from 3850 to 6025.
Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6025 is yet short, because that number at 8 heads per House makes the Inhabitants to be but 48200; whereas the 2263 who died in the year 1682, according to the aforemention'd Rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of People to be 67890; the Medium betwixt which number and 48200 is 58045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope Authority will ere long rectifie, by direct and exact Enquiries.
4. As to the Births, we say that Anno 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London, just before the Troubles in Religion began, the Births were ⅚ of the ‖ Burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of Families in London above the Country, and the fewer Breeders, and not for want of Registring. Wherefore, deducting ⅙ of 2263, which is 377, there remains 1886 for the probable number of Births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been Christen'd in that year, though 1023 were christened Anno 1671, when there died but 1696; which decreasing of the Christnings, and increasing of the Burials, shews the increase of Nonregistering in the Legal Books, which must be the increase of Roman Catholicks at Dublin.
The scope of this whole Paper therefore is, That the People of Dublin are rather 58000, than 320001 ; and that the Dissenters, who do not Register their Baptisms, have encreased from 391 to 974: but of Dissenters, none ‖ have increased but the Roman Catholicks, whose Numbers have encreased from about 2 to 5 in the said Years. The exacter Knowledge whereof, may also be better had from direct Enquiries.
Aug. 26th 1686.
Let this Paper be printed
People, Housing, Hospitals, &c.
London and Paris.
By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, Fellow of the Royal Society.
- ——Qui sciret Regibus uti
- Fastidiret olus1
LONDON, Printed for F. Lloyd in the Middle Exchange next Salisbury-House in the Strand. 1687.
NOTE ON THE “TWO ESSAYS.”
Most Excellent MAJESTY.
IDo presume, in a very small Paper, to shew Your Majesty that Your City of London seems more considerable than the Two best Cities of the French Monarchy, and for ought I can find, greater than any other of the Universe, which because I can say ‖ without flattery, and by such Demonstration as Your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray Your Majesty to accept from
Most Humble, Loyal
and Obedient Subject,
Sir WILLIAM PETTY,
Tending to prove that London hath more People and Housing than the Cities of Paris and Rouen put together, and is also more considerable in several other respects1 .
1. THE Medium of the Burials at London in the three last years, viz. 1683, 1684 and 1685, (wherein there was no extraordinary Sickness, ‖ and wherein the Christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions with the Burials and Christenings of each year one with another) was 22337, and the like Medium of Burials for the three last Paris Bills we could procure, viz. for the years 1682, 1683 and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the Christenings to have been very sickly) is 198871 .
2. The City of Bristol2 in England appears to be by good estimate of its Trade and Customes as great as Rouen in France, and the City of Dublin in Ireland appears to have more Chimnies than Bristol, and consequently more People, and the Burials in ‖ Dublin were Anno 1682 (being a sickly year) but 2263.
3. Now the Burials of Paris (being 19887) being added to the Burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2263, makes but 22150, whereas the Burials of London were 187 more, or 22337, or as about 6 to 73 .
4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L'hostel Dieu in Paris (being above 3000) as hath been elsewhere shewn4 , or any part thereof, should be substracted out of the Paris Burials aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what follows ‖ concerning the Housing of those Cities, viz.
5. There were burnt at London, Anno 1666, above 13000 houses, which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses in the said year, were above 65000; and whereas the ordinary Burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one third the total of the houses at London Anno 1686, must be about 87000, which Anno 1682, appeared by accompt to have been 840001 .
6. Monsieur Morery, the great French Author of the late Geographical Dictionaries2 , who makes Paris the greatest City in the World, ‖ doth reckon but 50000 houses in the same, and other Authors and knowing Men much less; nor are there full 7000 houses in the City of Dublin, so as if the 50000 houses of Paris, and the 7000 houses in the City of Dublin were added together, the total is but 57000 Houses, whereas those of London are 87000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9.
7. As for the Shipping and foreign Commerce of London, the common sense of all Men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris and Rouen put together.
8. As to the Wealth and Gain accruing to the Inhabitants of London and Paris by Law-suits (or La chicane)3 I onely say that the Courts ‖ of London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven Millions of People, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far: Moreover there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the Number and Wealth of Lawyers like the Buildings and Chambers in the Two Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, Doctors Commons, and the seven other Inns in which are4 Chimnies, which are to be seen at London, besides many Lodgings, Halls, and Offices relating to the same.
9. As to the plentifull and easie living of the People we say,
1. That the People of Paris to those of London, being as about ‖ 6 to 7, and the Housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the People do not live at London so close and crouded as at Paris, but can afford themselves more room and liberty.
2. That at London the Hospitals are better and more desirable than those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die 2 out of 151 , whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the Hospitals at London, and ⅖ or 20 times that proportion die out of the Paris Hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of those at London, who chuse to lie sick in Hospitals rather than ‖ in their own Houses, are to the like People of Paris as one to twenty; which shews the greater Poverty or want of Means in the People of Paris than those of London.
3. We infer from the premisses, viz. the dying scarce 2 of 16 out of the London Hospitals, and about 2 of 15 in the best of Paris, (to say nothing of L'hostel Dieu) That either the Physicians and Chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the Air of London is more wholesome.
10. As for the other great Cities of the World, if Paris were the greatest we need say no more ‖ in behalf of London. As for Pequin in China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything in the Description of the two late Voyages of the Chines's Emperour from that City into East and West Tartary2 , in the years 1682 and 1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London. As for Dely and Agra belonging to the Mogull we find nothing against our position, but much to shew the vast numbers which attend that Emperour in his business and pleasures.
11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Gran Cairo; as for Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavour'd to shew ‖ the greatness of that City, and the greatness of the Plague which reigned in it, that there died 1500 per diem, without other circumstances: To which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1200 per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never carried away above ⅕ of the People, whereas it is commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other Eastern Cities, and even in Italy and Spain, that the Plague takes away ⅖ one half or more; wherefore where 1200 is but ⅕ of the People it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1500 was ⅖ or one half, &c. ‖
12. As for Gran Cairo it is reported, that 73000 died in 10 weeks or 1000 per diem1 , where note, that at Gran Cairo the Plague comes and goes away suddenly, and that the Plague takes away 2 or ⅗ parts of the People as aforesaid; so as 73000 was probably the number of those that died of the Plague in one whole year at Gran Cairo, whereas at London Anno 1665, 97000 were brought to account to have died in that year. Wherefore it is certain, that that City wherein 97000 was but ⅕ of the People, the number was greater than where 73000 was ⅖ or the half. ‖
We therefore conclude, that London hath more People, Housing, Shipping and Wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for ought yet appears, is more considerable than any other City in the Universe, which was propounded to be proved. ‖
Sir WILLIAM PETTY,
Tending to prove that in the Hospital called L'hostel Dieu at Paris, there die above 3000 per Annum by reason of ill accommodation.
1. IT appears that Anno 1678 there entred into the Hospital of La Charité 2647 Souls, of which there died there within the said year 338, which ‖ is above an eighth part of the said 2647, and that in the same year there entred into L'hostel Dieu 21491, and that there died out of that number 5630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the said 5630, being 2815, seem to have died for want of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La Charité1 .
2. Moreover in the year 1679 there entred into La Charité 3118, of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the same year there entred into L'hostel Dieu 28635, of which there died 8397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their degrees of ‖ Mortality) there entred into L'hostel Dieu 28635 and 21491, in all 50126, the Medium whereof is 25063, and there died out of the same in the said Two years 5630 & 8397, in all 14027, the Medium whereof is 7013.
3. There entred in the said years into La Charité 2647 and 3118, in all 5765, the Medium whereof is 2882, whereof there died 338 and 452, in all 790, the Medium whereof is 395.
4. Now if there died out of L'hostel Dieu 7013 per annum, and that the proportion of those that died out of L'hostel Dieu is double to those that died out of La Charité (as by the above ‖ Numbers it appears to be near there abouts) then it follows that half the said Numbers of 7013 being 3506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil administration of that Hospital.
5. This Conclusion seem'd at the first sight very strange, and rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth, but considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled to the belief of it, viz.
1. In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London there was sent out and cured in the year 1685, 1764 Persons, and there died out of the said Hospital 252. ‖ Moreover there were sent out and cured out of St. Thomas's Hospital 1523, and buried 209, that is to say, there were cur'd in both Hospitals 3287, and buried out of both Hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3748, of which number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shews that out of the most poor and wretched Hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris.
2. Farthermore, it hath been above shewn that there died out of La Charité at a Medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les ‖ Incurables making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St. Thomas's Hospital, London, there died at a Medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part; which shews that although there be more People in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many People to Hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest Hospitals at London, were better than the best at Paris; which shews that the poorest People at London have better accommodation in their own houses, than the best Hospital of Paris affordeth.
6. Having proved that there die about 3506. Persons at Paris unnecessarily to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value of the said damage and of the Remedy thereof, as follows, viz. the value of the said 3506 at 60 li. Sterl. per head, being about the value of Argier Slaves, (which is less than the intrinsick value of People at Paris) the whole loss of the Subjects of France in that Hospital seems to be 60 times 3506 li. Sterl. per Annum, viz. 210 thousand 360 li. Sterl. equivalent to about two Millions 524 Thous. 320 French Livers.
7. It hath appeared that there came into L'hostel Dieu at a Medium 25063 per Annum, or 2089 per Mensem, and that the whole stock of what remain'd in the ‖ precedent Months is at a Medium about 2108 (as may appear by the third Line of the Table N° 5, which shall be shortly published)1viz. the Medium of Months is 2410 for the sickly year 1679, whereunto 1806, being added as the Medium of Months for the year 1678, makes 4216, the Medium whereof is the 2108 above mentioned; which number being added to the 2089 which entred each Month, makes 4197 for the Number of Sick which are supposed to be always in L'hostel Dieu one time with another.
8. Now if 60 French Livers per Annum for each of the said 4197 sick Persons were added to ‖ the present ordinary Expence of that Hospital (amounting to an addition of 251 Thousand 820 Livers) it seems that so many lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this by doing a manifest deed of Charity to Mankind. ‖
Memorandum, That Anno 1685, the Burials of London were 23222, and those of Amsterdam 6245; from whence, and the difference of Air, 'tis probable that the People of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam1 .
Sep. 21st 1686.
I do hereby License these Obervations to be printed.
By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, Fellow of the Royal Society.
LONDON, Printed for Henry Mortlocke, at the Phœnix, in St. Paul's Church-Yard, and F. Lloyd, in the middle Exchange next Salisbury-House in the Strand. 1687.
LONDON and ROME.
2. Before the Restauration of Monarchy in England, Anno 1660, the People of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put together, whereas now, the People of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen3 .
3. Anno 1665 one fifth part of the then People of London, or 97 thousand died of the Plague1 , and in the next year 1666, 13 thousand Houses or one fifth part of all the Housing of London were burnt also.
4. At the Birth of Christ, old Rome was the greatest City of the World, and London the greatest ‖ at the Coronation of King James the Second, and near 6 times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119 thousand Souls besides Jews2 .
5. In the years of King Charles the Second his death, and King James the Second his Coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary Sickliness or Healthfulness) the Burials did wonderfully agree, viz. Anno 1684, they were 23202, and Anno 1685 they were 23222, the Medium whereof is 23212. And the Christnings did very wonderfully agree also, having been Anno 1684, 14702, and Anno 1685, 14732, the Medium whereof is 147163 , which consistence was ‖ never seen before, the said number of 23212 Burials making the People of London to be 696360, at the rate of one Dying per annum out of 30.
6. Since the great Fire of London, Anno 1666 about 7 parts of 15 of the present vast City hath been new built, and is with its People increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put together, the one being the Seat of the great French Monarchy, and the other of the Papacy.
Feb. 18th, 168 . Let this be printed.
I. Objections from the City of Rey in Persia, and from MonsrAuzout, against two former Essays, answered, and that London hath as many People as Paris, Rome and Rouen put together.
II. A Comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.
III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 Parishes named in the Bills of Mortality, there live about 696 thousand People.
IV. An estimate of the People in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, Rome, Dublin, Bristoll and Rouen, with several observations upon the same.
V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the VII United Provinces.
By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, Fellow of the Royal Society.
Invidiam augendo ulciscar.
LONDON, Printed for Henry Mortlock at the Phœnix in St. Paul's Church-yard. 1687.
On the history of the London bills of mortality see the Introduction.
Maitland, writing before 1739, could not find the part of the Parish Clerks’ register for the years before 1664. He records that “the Company are of the opinion that the same was lent to Mr Graunt, to enable him to write his Natural and Political Observations, and by some accident never returned.” History of London, II. 738.
Graunt's conjecture of a connection between the Plague and the origin of the bills is confirmed by their earlier history. Cf. Introduction, also Creighton, Epidemics, I. 294–295, Ogle in Jour. of the Stat. Soc., LV. 438.
A printed weekly bill for 5–12 November, 1607, a MS. weekly bill for 10–17 August, 1609, and a blank form for a weekly bill with printed date of 1610 are preserved at the Record Office. State Papers, Dom., James I., XXVIII. 89; XLVII. 85–86; LVIII. 102. All vary in unimportant particulars from the pattern of a yearly bill which Graunt gives. The bill of 1607 lacks the entry of those buried of the plague without the liberties in Middlesex and Surrey, the bill of 1609, though it gives them does not include them in its total burials, while the form for a bill dated 1610 both includes them in its total and also omits to enter separately “the whole sum of all the burials in London and the liberties thereof.” The MS. bill of 1609 is further peculiar in that it consists of two independent parts. The second part is devoted to the nine out parishes enumerated by Graunt on p. 341 below. These parishes the bill locates “in Westminster,” and the first part omits their figures in making up the total of burials.
In the weekly bills, at least, every parish was particularized as early as 1532. See Introduction.
Properly St Anthony.
Properly St Augustin.
Properly St Benedict.
Otherwise St Vedast.
The diseases and casualties were reported to the Parish Clerks as early as 1604. Bell, London's Remembrancer, unpaged, Graunt, p. 346. Upon the back of the weekly bill for 5–12 November, 1607, the deaths due to each of twenty-one causes are enumerated in MS., and in the bill for 10–17 August, 1609, similar information is given, likewise in MS., for the parishes severally, e.g.:
“Katharines Creechurch. pla. 1 crisom 1 small pox 2 fever 1 5 1.” The last two figures occupy the columns uniformly reserved for total burials and for burials of the plague respectively.
This should be 973 to correspond with the tables at pp. 408 and 411, since both of them put the total burials for 1631 at 8562.
Probably a misprint for 266, which the first edition had. The plague burials, according to the table, p. 408 were 274 in 1631 and 8 in 1632.
In the bill for 21 April, see table, p. 426.
The Act erecting the parish of St Paul, Covent Garden, passed the House of Commons 7 January, 1645. Commons’ Journal, IV. 398.
This line, omitted from the fifth edition, occurs in the first four.
See p. 365.
“For both the common phrases of physicians concerning Radical Heat and Natural Moisture are deceptive.” Bacon, X. II.
The years are 1629–1636, and 1647–1658, see the Table of Casualties, p. 406.
These figures do not correspond to Graunt's table (p. 406) which gives thrush 211, convulsion 9,073, rickets, 3,681, teeth and worms 14,236, abortive and stillborn 8,559, chrisoms and infants 32,106, liver-grown, spleen, and rickets 1,421, overlaid and starved at nurse 529, or in all but 69,816.
According to the table (p. 406) there died of swine-pox 57, of flox and small-pox 10,576, of measles 757, of worms (without convulsions) 830, or in all 12,220.
That is, sixteen thousand; according to the table (p. 406), 16,384.
That is, seventy thousand. The German translator of the Observations writes “70 vom hundert.”
Cromwell's act of 24 August, 1653, provided for the election by each parish of a parish registrar, who might take “for every Birth of Childe, Four pence and no more; and for every Death, Four pence and no more: And for Publications, Marriages, Births or Burials of poor people who live upon Alms, nothing shall be taken,” Scobell, II. 236. In most cases the old parish clerk was elected registrar (Christie, 140), and in London the parish clerks may have collected their fees through the searchers.
“The author, going ultra crepidam, has attributed to the motion of the moon in her orbit all the tremors which she gets.from a shaky telescope.” De Morgan, Budget of Paradoxes, 68.
See p. 356 note.
On the trustworthiness of the following figures see the notes to the “Table shewing how many died weekly,” p. 426.
1st. ed., ‘⅖,’ German transl., ‘nicht ⅛.’
20 is a misprint for 10.
The report of a case of the plague in any family led to the “shutting up” of the house infected, and thus increased the danger of the other members of the household. This danger was probably avoided, in many cases, by bribing the searchers. Creighton, 1. 312, 318, 663, 672, also in Social England, IV. 469. The probable concealment of the plague was noted at the time. Salvetti's Correspondence, 11 July, 1625, Hist. MSS. Com. XI. pt. 1. p. 26–27; Rev. Joseph Mead to Sir Martin Stuteville, Birch, Court and Times of Charles I., vol. 1. p. 39.
According to the table on p. 408 the years 1623, 1624, 1633 and 1634 fail to satisfy Graunt's definition of sickly years.
The outbreak of the Plague at times of coronation was perhaps in part due to the concourse of people to London.
See Verbum Sap., p. 107, note 3.
See table, p. 415.
See p. 331, note.
Cf. p. 389.
See p. 385.
In fact 6,435,000.
The Table of Males and Females is at p. 411.
See p. 389.
This idea, which occurs in slightly different phraseology in Petty's Treatise of Taxes (p. 68), has been pronounced a “leading thought in his writings.” Ingram, Hist. of Political Economy, 51; the suggestion is followed by Bevan, Sir, W. Petty, a Study, 53. The figure in which the idea is expressed apparently reflects the current notion, at least as old as Aristotle, that the female is passive in generation. Legouvé, Moral history of Woman, tr. Palmer, 216. Even the form of expressing the analogy is, probably, older than either Graunt or Petty, for both place the words in brackets—a seventeenth century equivalent for marks of quotation—and Schulz, in his translation of Graunt, writes, “weil, nach dem Sprichwort, die hander der welt vater, und das land derselbten mutter ist.”
St Mary, Savoy, was erected a parish in 1606, St Paul, Covent Garden, in 1645. See Introduction, also p. 345, note.
On the inconvenience arising, after the Restoration, from the excessive size of certain parishes, see Eden, State of the Poor, 1. 175–177 n. and cf. 14 Charles II. c. 12, 21. See also Petty's Treatise of Taxes, p. 5, note, and his Polit. Arith. p. 301.
The Scots Scouts Discoveries declared that in 1639 London contained 100000 Frenchmen and Dutchmen. Morgan, Phoenix Britannicus, 463. Howell estimated that in 1657 the various parts of London “with divers more which are contiguous and one entire piece with London herself” had a population of a million and a half. Londonopolis, 403.
2 Samuel, xxiv. 1–9; 1 Chronicles, xxi. 1–8.
If it be “an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer,” Graunt's multiplier, seven lines lower, should be 20, not 10.
If it be “an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer,” Graunt's multiplier, seven lines lower, should be 20, not 10.
10000 is a misprint for 100000.
More accurately 47,667.
“An exact Delineation of the Cities of London and Westminster and the Suburbs Thereof, Together wth ye Burrough of Southwark And All ye Throughfares Highwayes Streetes Lanes and Common Allies wthin ye same Composed by a Scale and Ichnographically described by Richard Newcourt of Somerton in the Countie of Somersett Gentleman. Willm Faithorne sculpsit.”—Facsimile, London: E. Stanford, 1878.
The first edition has, “that there are no Millions,” the fourth, “that there are not two Millions.”
See p. 374.
Excluding Westminster and the six parishes enumerated at p. 345.
See p. 349.
From the bills Graunt calculates (p. 352) that seven in 100 survive 70. The grounds of his assumption that but one survives 76 are not evident.
This method of constructing a table of mortality suggests Petty's Discourse of Duplicate Proportion.
With this calculation of London's mortality may be compared the figures for Geneva in the seventeenth century. The following table, compiled from Edouard Mallet's Recherches hist. et stat. sur la population de Genève (Annales d'hygiène publique et de medécine légale, XVII. p. 30, Janv., 1837), gives the returns for all the persons whose age at death was recorded in the years 1601–1700. The table reveals a juvenile mortality even higher than Graunt's calculation for London.
|Age in years.||Number of deaths.||Percentage.|
Apparently Graunt has not expressed himself with entire accuracy. The question which he put is, in how many years will 24000 pairs become 48000 pairs? The question which he probably meant to put is, in how many years will 24000 pairs beget 48000 children? He answers, in seven years, or, plagues considered, in eight. If, then, eight years are necessary for the birth of 48000 persons, the birth of 384000—a number sufficient, together with those already living, to double the population of the City—will require sixty-four years. It is unnecessary to dwell on the defects of this calculation. On one hand it ignores the increase in the number of pairs during sixty-four years. On the other hand, it tacitly assumes that the 384000 now living, and likewise all those new-born within the sixty-four years, will live to the end of that period.
According to the chronology of Scaliger (De emendatione temporum, pp. 431–432) which places the Creation in the year 3948 B.C.
Previous editions, ‘old.’
Romsey in Hampshire, see p. 412, note 1.
See p. 370.
See pp. 368–9.
The figures of these summaries are the same in all editions of the Observations, but the tables themselves give, in many instances, figures differing from the summaries. Thus, according to the tables, the greatest number of burials in decade four, the least number of burials in decades six and seven, and the least number of births in decades three and eight are erroneous. The discrepancies, however, are not large enough to invalidate the observation which Graunt makes upon the summaries.
See pp. 368–9, 390.
See pp. 368–9, 390.
Apparently on the assumption that in the country one dies out of four families each year. Graunt has calculated (p. 385) that in the city there die three out of eleven families.
See p. 385.
Sir Peter Pett also adopts this “currant rule of calculation” in his Happy future State of England, p. 118. Cf. Another Essay, note on “The Telling of Noses.”
This does not exactly agree with Graunt s estimate (p. 385) that 3 die in 11 families of 88 persons.
Evelyn's Fumifugium, with its plan for banishing “that hellish and dismal Cloud of Sea-Coale,” was published in the previous year, 1661. See Petty's Treatise of Taxes, p. 41, note.
This agrees but ill with Graunt's calculation that “in eight times eight years the whole People of the City shall double, without the access of Forremers,” p. 388.
The Appendix first appears in the third edition, (1665).
See p. 421. On the history of the Dublin bills, see Petty's Observations. It is not improbable that Graunt secured this Dublin bill from Petty. While Petty was in Ireland he corresponded with Graunt, and 4 February, 1662–3, he wrote to Lord Brouncker from Dublin, “when I first landed here some matter presented it selfe whereuppon to make observations uppon Ireland, not unlike those which Mr Graunt made uppon the London Bills of Mortality. I have done so much uppon it, as hath cost me some pounds, but not so much as is worth more than a bare mention.” Royal Society's Letter Book, P 1, f. 14.
See pp. 419–421.
See pp. 416–418.
See pp. 412–415.
Cromwell's act requiring civil marriage was passed 24 August, 1653, and went into legal effect September 29 of the same year. If, therefore, a desire to “prevent the new way of Marriage” caused an increased number of weddings in 1654, 1655, &c., the actual enforcement of the act must have been somewhat lax.
In the Index, p. 331, note.
See pp. 378–380.
See p. 405.
On this census see Maitland, London, 11., 742.
The original bills being lost, it is impossible to check most of Graunt's figures before 1658. Bell's Remembrancer, however, gives the christenings, the plague burials, and the aggregate burials, week by week, with the total of each year, for seventeen of the years included in Graunt's table, viz. for 1606–1610, 1625, 1630, 1636–37, and 1640–47. In 13 years Bell's figures agree with Graunt's. The disagreements in the remaining four years are exhibited by the following table:
|Year||Christened||Buried of the plague||Total buried (i.e. the plague burials and Graunt's “buried in all”)|
The small discrepancies in the christenings, in 1641–42 are obviously due to a transposition of figures, and the error is probably Graunt's, since Bell's figures here, as in all the years in question, are the correct footings of his weekly returns. The discrepancies in the number of burials, particularly in 1641, are more serious. Contemporary letters afford a check upon four of Bell's weekly bills as follows: 19–26 August, 1641, Bell's total burials are 610, plague burials, 139; Wiseman to Pennington, 26 August: “131 dying here this week of the pest, and 118 of the small-pox, and 610 in the whole of all diseases.” Cal. State Papers, Dom., Charles I., 1641–43, p. 105. 2–9 September, Bell's plague burials are 185; Cogan to Pennington, 9 September: “there died this week of the plague 185.” Ibid., 120. 23–30 September, Bell's decrease of plague burials over previous week is 30; Wiseman to Pennington, 30 September: “the sickness, I hope, will every day diminish, [the deaths] being less by 42 than the last [week].” Ibid., 128. 1–7 October, Bell's total burials are 654, plague burials, 239, anincrease of 24; Wiseman to Pennington, 7 October: “The sickness is increased by 24 this week, there being dead of all diseases 650 persons [perhaps intended as a round figure], whereof 239 of the plague.” Ibid., 134. Pennington's Correspondents, therefore, substantially confirm Bell's figures for four weeks. If his figures for the remaining weeks of 1641 are equally accurate, Graunt's figures for that year must be far too small.
The total requires 6923 here if 3613 and 4443 be assumed to be correct.
In the third edition the table was brought down to 1664, but the text stood unchanged.
This table beginning with 1569, is for a parish of 12 miles compass (p. 393), located in Hampshire (p. 388). Petty's native town of Romsey corresponds entirely to the description. Moreover “The Register of Romsey begins in 1569 y° 12th year of y° Regin of Q. Elizabeth–Jan. 1 [i.e. 1570 N. S.] and is divided into 3 Columns viz. Christenings, Weddings, & Burrals, in which year there were chirst. 73 weddin 13, & Burials 44.” Dr John Latiam's MS. Collections for a History of Roumsey, in f. 5 (Brit. Mus. Addl. MS. 26776). At f. 14 ff. Dr Latham gives a table of the marriages, bapisms and burials at Romsey from 1570 to 1658. The figures do not agree precisely with those of Graunt's table, but no great importance should be attached to trifling discrepancies as the register was in part carelessly kept and badly preserved, and Latham himself admits (f. 16 b) that other (unspecified) abstracts of it do not agree with his. The general similarity between his figures and Graunt's is much too close to be the result of chance.
20 as the total christenings in 1573 is evidently a misprint. The third edition has 70, Latham has 76.
The total btlrials for 1599 have dropped out. The other editions have 43.
In 1591 there was plague at Tiverton. The cause of the high mortality in 1597 is obscure. Creighton, Epidemics, 1. 351, 411.
In 1644 there was war typhus at Tiverton. Creighton, Epidemics, 1. 552–555.
The origin, or at least the publication of the Paris bills may be traced, with some degree of probability, to the influence of Graunt's Observations. The review of the Observations in the Journal des S¸avans, 2 August, 1666, begins “C'est une chose particuliere aux Anglois de faire des Billets de mortalite,”–words which seem to indicate that no similar bills were then published in Paris. The code of April 1667, provided that “estant important au public, pour la sante et pour la subsistance des habitans, d'en connoistre l'etat en tout terms et d'observer soigneusement les causes qui augmentent ou diminuent le peuple de chacun des quartiers de Paris, il sera fait, tous les seconde jours du mois, une feuille qui contiendra le nombre des baptemes, des mariages et des mortuaires du mois pracedant et de chacune des paroisses en particulier.” Serpillon, Code civil, ou commentaire sur l'ordonnance du mois d’ Avril, 1667. Paris, 1776, pp. 336–338, titre 20, articles 8–14; Recherches stat. sur la Ville de Paris, II. pp. XIII–XIV; Levasseur, La statistique officielle en France, in Journal de la Soc. de stat. de Paris, XXVI. 225, 279, June 1885. The close similarity of these Paris bills to the London bills lends probability to the assertion of Sir Peter Pett, that the idea was suggested to the counsellors of Louis XIV. by Graunt's Observations. Happy future State of England, (written 1680) p. 249.
The discussion on London and Paris was continued by Petty in his Two Essays.
Obviously a slip. It should be “more than a fifth and yet not more than a fourth.”
A misprint for 16,816, which is the correct footing, see Recherches statistiques, tables, 53.
Although Graunt himself makes little use of this table, the discrepancies between various parts of it, its divergence from the figures which Bell gives, and the criticisms which Creighton has passed upon it, necessitate an examination of its authenticity. The loss of all sets of the original bills before 1658 forces the inquirer to compare the table for the earlier years with figures drawn, for the major part, from secondary sources not always trustworthy. Of these sources the chief are: A, an original printed bill for the week ending 20 October 1603, preserved at the Guildhall library (in “Political Tracts, 1680, PP.”). Upon the margin of this bill are printed summaries of former visitations. B, Bell's London's Remembrancer (see Introduction). C, a broadsheet beginning “Lord have Mercy upon us,” printed for M. S. junior, and dated 1636 (Brit. Mus. 816. m. 9. (23).). D, a broadsheet beginning “Londons Lord have Mercy upon us. Written by H. C[rouch]. Printed for Richard Harper,” 1637. E, a broadsheet entitled “London's Lord have Mercy upon us. Printed by T. Mabb for R. Burton, and R. Gilberson,” and bringing its figures down to 18 July, 1665. (Brit. Mus. 816. m. 9. (25).). F, a broadsheet entitled “London's Loud Cryes to the Lord by Prayer. Made by a Reverend Divine. Continued down to this present day August 8, 1665. Printed by T. Mabb for R. Buiton, and R. Gilberson” (Brit. Mus. 816. m. 9. (26).). G, a broadsheet entitled “London's Lord have Mercy upon us. A true Relation of Seven modern Plagues or Visitations in London,” bringing its figures down to 31 Oct., 1665 (Brit. Mus. 816. m. 9. (24).). Of these only the two first are presumptively worthy of confidence, the remainder being the product of those “ignorant scribblers” whose “many and gross mistakes” Bell, as clerk to the Company of Parish Clerks, thought it his duty to rectify out of the undeniable records of those times. Nevertheless the broadsides were printed by persons who might have had access to original bills, now destroyed, and inasmuch as they give figures for some years concerning which Bell himself is silent, use has been made of them in default of better information. There are also two editions of the “Reflections upon the Bills of Mortality” (1665) which Bell particularly condemns, but the book adds nothing useful to the broadsheets upon which it is evidently based. In the following notes the authorities are referred to by the letters (A, B, etc.) prefixed to them above.
The figures for 1592, although confirmed by D, E, F, G and H, are worthy of no confidence. The reasons for rejecting them entirely are three:
First, For the London of 1592 they are preposterous. Creighton reports (Epidemics, 1. 341–344) that the total of burials in the city, liberties and suburbs for the five years 1578–1582 (eight weeks missing) was 24,802, of which 8,288 were caused by the plague, and that the total of christenings was 16,470. From abstracts of the weekly bills for 1597–1600 preserved at the Bodleian Library (Ashmole MS., 824, f. 196–199), but apparently unknown to Dr Creighton, it
appears that the corresponding figures for those four years were 16,935 burials, 86 burials of the plague, and 17,906 christenings respectively. (The summaries are printed at length on pp. 433–435.) Thus it becomes possible to make a comparison of weekly averages:
|Total burials||Of the plague||Other causes||Christenings|
Second, The various figures in each column bear such a relation to one another as at least suggests fraud. If we disregard the week ending 21 July and the last week in the column of total burials, and also disregard the first four weeks and the weeks ending 23 and 30 June in the plague column, the remaining significant integers in the units place in both columns are arranged in pairs whose sum is invariably ten. For example, the figures at the bottom of the plague column run 9 & 1, 6 & 4, 3 & 7, 9 & 1, 2 & 8, etc. throughout.
Third, Neither total printed is the true sum of the figures at whose foot it stands. A note upon the bill of 1603 (A) declares that “in the last visitation, from 20 December, 1592 to the 23. of the same moneth in the yeare 1593 there died in all 25886. Of the Plague in and about London, 15003.” This confirms Graunt's total of all buried as to numbers, but not as to time covered. His total of plague deaths may have originated in a misprint. The true sums of his columns are 26,407 and 11,106 respectively.
In addition to these reasons, Bell's chronological objection, as quoted in the Introduction, should also be noted. On the whole we must consider Graunt's figures for 1592 spurious.
If 1146 (A, D, E, F, and G) be substituted for 1149 on 13 October and 585 (D, E, F, and G) be substituted for 545 on 10 November, Graunt's totals become the correct footings of his columns, and the figures are, doubtless authentic as far as they go. But they do not cover the whole year, they omit the burials in the out parishes before 14 July, and they omit entirely the burials in Westminster, the Savoy, Stepney, Newington, Islington, Lambeth and Hackney. The bill of 20 October, 1603 (A), informs us that, from the beginning of the plague to that date there were “buried in all within the 7 places last aforenamed 4378, whereof of the plague, 3997.” Cf. Creighton, 1. 477.
The figures are probably authentic, being confirmed for four scattered weeks by letters at the Record Office. Cal. S. P. Dom., 1625–26, pp. 84, 144, 179. But the columns as printed add up 50,823 and 35,400 respectively, and the corrections noted below do not explain Graunt's totals. The figures, furthermore, omit Westminster, etc., where there were buried in the whole year 8,736, of whom 5,896 of the plague. Ibid., 84, 184. Creighton (p. 508) gives the figures, from Bell, for the weeks preceding 17 March, making the total mortality for the year, including Westminster, 63,001, whereof of the plague 41,313, and these totals are further confirmed by an original yearly bill. Cal. S. P. D., 1625–26, pp. 177, 184.
Corrections of specific numbers: 12 May, for 232 read 332 (B, D, E, F, G), 16 June, for 161 read 165 (B, D, E, F, G); 14 July, for 1781 read 1741 (B only); 29 Sept., for 236 read 1236 (B, D, E, F, G, 3rd and 4th editions of the Observations); 1 Dec., for 190 read 290 (D, E, F, and G; B has 190).
The figures are authentic and, with one exception, correct. 16 Dec. B, E & G have 217 where Graunt has 212. The columns as printed add 6193 and 1166 respectively. The figures given at the foot have no obvious relation to the columns beneath which they stand. They are, apparently, totals for the full year, as they sum up, without Westminster, at 10,544 burials and 1,344 plague burials, whereas the corresponding figures on p. 116, confirmed by D, E, F and G, are 10,554 and 1,317.
Bell here fails us, as he gives the figures (reproduced by Creighton, 1,530) for London without Westminster and the six parishes. Graunt's figures, which include Westminster, etc., are confirmed by D, E, F, and G, save as specifically noted below. The columns, as printed, foot 23,902 and 12,101 respectively. The totals given by Graunt have nothing to do with the columns beneath which they stand, but agree with Bell's totals for the whole year, Westminster omitted. By adding them to the total deaths and the plague deaths at Westminster, etc., which, according to the table on p. 410, were 4056 and 1702 respectively, we get a grand total of 27,415 burials, whereof of the plague 12102. These results agree with D, E, F, and G.
Corrections of specific numbers: 2 June, for 77 read 67 (D, E, F, G); 21 July, for 365 read 395 (D, E, F); 4 Aug., for 491 read 461 (D, E, F, G); 13 Oct., for 1302 read 1402 (G only).
The third edition of the Observations carries this table down to 4 July, the 4th to 26 September. Comparison of the figures with the original weekly bills shews the necessity of correcting Graunt's figures as follows: 27 December insert one burial of the plague; 14 February, read 462 for 461; 25 April, read 398 for 390; 30 May, read 400 for 399; 20 June, read 615 for 611; 11 July, read 725 for 727; 29 August, read 7490 for 7496. With these alterations, Graunt's footings are correct.
In fact the first column was omitted from the table in the fourth and fifth editions, leaving but twenty-nine.
“One could wish that the worthy citizen had made no difficulty about the size of his paper. The omitted years are not only those of great political revolution, which may have had an effect upon the public health, but they are of special interest for the beginning of that great period of fever and smallpox in London which continued all through the 18th century.” Creighton, 1. 532.
Should be “five quaternions or twenty years.”
English money was first generally milled in 1662. Lowndes, Report, 95–96.
An approximate weight. In fact 12 ounces Troy of standard silver were coined into 62 shillings.
Cf. Mun, England's Treasure, ch. IV., pp. 19–27 of Ashley's edition.
I.e., six pounds sterling, which would weigh 24 ounces Troy upon Petty's assumption.
Leake says that the Britannia half-pence were coined of copper in 1665, “but were soon called in, to please a neighbouring monarch; they are therefore not very common.” English Money, p. 371. But Ruding doubts whether any were milled before the end of 1672. Annals, II. 14–15.
Petty's opinion upon the point here involved has been diversely interpreted by Lord Liverpool, Coins of the Realm (1880), pp. 137–141 and by S. Dana Horton, The Silver Pound, 165–171.
The reprint in Somers’ Tracts has ‘insolvent.’
The Brit. Mus. copies 8223a. 69 and 104f. 61 have not ‘Price 2d.
In the first edition.
“Only a sort of syllabus of it [pp 454, 455] remains.” Fitzmaurice, 216.
Probably Sir Robert Southwell, through whom Petty had other dealings with Mark Pardoe, the stationer.
See Treatise of Taxes, p. 62, note.
Petty reckons the “value of people” variously at more than £60, Two Essays, post, at £69, Verbum Sap., p. 108, at £70, Polit. Anatomy, p. 152, Treatise of Ireland, post, and this Essay, p. 476, and at £80, Polit. Arith., p. 267.
2d ed., ‘Acres of Profitable Land.’
2d ed., ‘Twelve ways.’
2d ed., ‘The six parishes of Westminster, and the fourteen out parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the former; all which one hundred and thirtythree parishes.’
Petty's arrangement of ninety-seven parishes within the walls, sixteen next without, ten in Westminster, and seven without them all, is a division unknown to the bills. It probably arose from a transposition of the figures for Westminster (seven parishes) and for the parishes without them all (ten) given by Graunt. In the first edition Petty cites bills for 1665–1682, during which years the division was in fact 97, 16, 12, and 5 parishes in 1665–1670 and 97, 16, 14, and 5 parishes in 1674–1682. In the second edition, published in 1686, Petty corrected the division of the parishes (see preceding note) to correspond not to his table, which still stopped with 1682, but to the last yearly bill published when he wrote, (the bill for 1685), which included 97, 16, 14 and 6 parishes. On these changes see the Introduction.
7761 is a misprint for 761, which is the reading of the second edition and corresponds to the footing.
The numbers A, B, C, and D are calculated from Graunt's table, pp. 407–409. The number A, 5135, is miscalculated or misprinted; it should be 5185. The error makes, on the whole rather for than against Petty's contention.
In figuring that one number “is double to” another within a certain sum, Petty uses, in every case but the first, a process indicated by the formula x = 2y ± n. But in order to get the result that “C is double to A and 806 over” one must use the formula . Had Petty calculated the relation of C to A as he does the relation of D to B, etc., the surplus would have been 1613, his erroneous valuation of A being accepted.
‘1736’ should be ‘1738’.
On the page cited (p. 393 of this edition) Graunt says that “about one in 32 dies.” But in the Index (p. 332) is the statement, with reference to page 93, that “at London one of thirty” dies yearly.
Probably by the makers of Ogilby and Morgan's map; cf. a note to Five Essays below.
By 31 Charles II., c. r. (1679), the last assessment before Petty wrote, London paid £2145 15s. 8d., Middlesex, including Westminster, £1520 5s., Surrey, including Southwark £798 10s. 1d., in all £4464 10s. 9d. or a little more than one eighth the monthly assessment of £34410 9s. 6d. But the proportion of London proper, which was the basis of Petty's earlier calculation (Verbum Sap., p. 107, note) now fell to less than one sixteenth. On the proportion of London in different assessments see Thorold Rogers, Economic Interpretation of History, 145–156.
The hearth money was imposed by 14 Charles II. c. 10. By 15 Charles II. c. 13 it was enacted that whereas the revenue from hearth money had “beene much obstructed for want of true and just Accompts under the hands of the respective Occupiers of Houses Edifices Lodgings and Chambers as by the said Act is required,” therefore the account should be verified upon visitation by the constable. He should make out “a Booke or Roll fairely written wherein shall be Two Columnes, The one containing the Names of the persons and the number of Hearthes and Stoves in their respective Possessions that are chargeable by the said Act, and the other the Names of the persons… not chargeable.” This roll was to be transmitted to the high constable, then to the Justices of the peace, then to the Clerk of the peace, who should “within Two Moneths engrosse in Parchment a true Duplicate of the said Booke or Roll, which being signed by him, and by two Justices of the Peace at least of the respective County and places aforesaid shall be transmitted within one Moneth after such Engrossment into his Majestie's Courts of Exchequer.”
In Stowe MS. 322 at the British Museum, ff. 89–90, is contained the following memorandum:
The Telling of Noses; Or The Number of Freeholders in England according to Sr W. P.
|In all Engld||2599786|
|[Endorsed].||Calculation of the People of England.||1687.|
The MS. in the hand of a copyist, who has unquestionably misdated it, was formerly at Ashburnham Place. Eighth Report Hist. MSS. Com., App. III. p. 12. The same calculation, but at much greater length, is assigned by Sir John Dalrymple's Memoirs of Great Britain and Ireland, 2d ed., appendix, pt. II. pp. 11–15, to the reign of William III. The origin of the figures is revealed by Petty's friend, Sir Peter Pett. Pett discusses “the Result of the Bishops Survey, which was made of the Province for Canterbury and wherein none under the age of Communicants or 16 were return'd, and but very few Servants, or Sons, and Daughters, or Lodgers, or Inmates of the people of several perswasions of Religion: and the thing endeavour'd was that the heads of Families or House-Keepers, i.e. Man and Wife might be truly return'd: and at that rate, the Total at the foot of the account for the Province of Canterbury is 2,228,386, the which according to the forementioned currant Rule of Calculation to be necessarily about doubled on account of the people under 16, makes the Total of the Souls in that Province to be 4 Millions 4 Hundred 56 thousand, 7 hundred seventy two; and the Province of York bearing a sixth part of the Taxes, and having therefore the 6th. part of the people, that the Province of Canterbury hath, which is 742,795, that being added to those of Canterbury, makes 5 Millions, a hundred ninety nine thousand, five hundred sixty seven.” Happy future State of England, 117–118. Writing in 1680, although his book was not published until 1688, Pett goes on to say that this enumeration was taken in 1676, that it was defective, and that the total population of England was, at the time when he wrote, more than five million two hundred thousand.
Graunt, p. 390.
Petty's allusion to Domesday Book rests, probably, upon such knowledge only as he drew from reading Sir Matthew Hale's The primitive Origination of Mankind considered and examined, (1672). Hale, however, does not estimate the population of England at the time of the Conquest at all. That, he thinks, would be “a labourious piece of work, but it is not difficult to be done in any one County; I have tryed the comparison in the County of Gloucester. and I do find… that the number of inhabitants now are above twenty times more than they were at that time,” p. 235. The laborious piece of work has since been performed by Sir Henry Ellis, but the “recorded population” (287,045) must be multiplied “by four, five or six, according to knowledge or taste, before the population of England will be attained.”–Maitland, Domesday Book and beyond, 408; cf. pp. 17–22, 400, 437, also Pell in Domesday Studies, I. 561.
Petty's learned men have not been identified. In 1685 Isaac Vossius estimated the population of the world at 500 millions, a number which Bayle ridiculed as too large: Vossii variarum observationum liber, 68; Bayle, Nouvelles de la République des Lettres, Janvier, 1685, Oeuvres, I. 212–214. See the chapter on the “Historische Entwickelung der Versuche, die Gesammt-bevolkerung der Erde zu schatzen,” in Behm and Wagner, Die Bevolkerung der Erde, II. 3–8, Petermann's Geogr. Mittheilungen, Ergänzungshand, VIII. nr. 35.
Numbers i. 1–46. The precise number is 603,550. Petty has overlooked the later enumeration of 601,730, Numbers xxvi. 1–51.
I Chronicles xxi. 1–8, ‘and all Israel were a thousand thousand and a hundred thousand men that drew the sword; and Judah four hundred three score and ten thousand men that drew the sword.’ The account in 2 Samuel xxiv. 1–9 gives 800000 fighting men in Israel and 500000 in Judah.
Concerning his assistance to the worthy divine, Petty writes thus to Sir Robert Southwell:
Dublin 20th Augt. 1681.
Once more pay the Postage of 4 Sheets. By ye last you saw ye Quantum of my Damage; by this you shall ye Quomodo, & consequently ye Injury. Oh! that I could get some body to read my Papers.
There is a good man about this Town writing agst Atheisme, and in particular at this time answering their Cavills against ye Resurrection; Which are, That ye whole Globe of ye Earth will not afford sufficient Matter to the Bodies that must Rise, much less will the surface thereof (say they) afford footing to all those Bodies. Now ye assistances which I have given this good man are viz.
1° Supposing ye People in England, Scotland & Ireland to be abt nine Millions, Those in Holland and Zealand abt one Million, and in France 16, I say that by comparing ye rest of ye World therewth there are but between 300 & 400 Millions of Souls now living.
2° Upon this and Grant's Measures I ascertain ye Number that ever have died since ye Creation, & find that Munster would afford them all Graves, and ye Mangerton Bodies, or ye Equivalent in weight of Earth.
Having thus help'd my Friend, I took occasion to proceed, viz.
1st I find yt ye World being 5630 years old [Scaliger's Chronology, cf. p. 388, note 1], and Adam & Eve doubling but every 200 years (as Grant also saies) there must be now 316 Millions of People upon ye Earth; wch answers admirably, and 15 a brave Argument agst Scripture-Scoffers and Prœ-Adamites.
Nevertheless upon Examination of our Friend Grant's Positions,
2dly I find People do double very differently in every Century of ye World, and have (as I think) rectitified his Doctrine, by making many Numbers in continuall Proportion.
3dly I further find, that ye World at a Medium is at this day not much better peopled then our wretched Baronies in Keery, nor above part so well as our poor Ireland is; nor above part so well as Holland, wch is over-peopled.
4thly I find yt in ye next 1400 years ye World doubling it's People in my corrected proportion, must be over-peopl'd, and then that there must be great Wars and Slaughters, and yt ye Strong must then destroy ye Weak, or ye World must (of necessity) come to an end.
5thly I find by looking far back upon ye paucity of People in ye Asyrian, Persian, and other first Monarchies, how easy a thing ‘twas for a few resolute Fellows to conquer ye World, as then it was. And that (whatever ye King of France may think) ye Universall or Great Monarchy does and will grow every Century more & more difficult by ye Course of Nature.
6thly I conclude, that as People double faster now then they did in former Ages, so ye Rents of Lands must also rise proportionably, and ye number of years Purchase also: Wherefore let us get possession of what ye Affidavit saies is kept from us.
Thus, Dear Cosen (having ended where I began) I am still Yours.
[Endorsement] Dublin, Augt. 20th. 1681. A Copy of Sr, Wm. Petty's Letter to Sr. Robt. Southwell. Abt. ye Number of Mortals, &c.
Rawlinson MS. A. 178, ff. 71–72, Bodleian Library, among the Pepys papers. The letter has been printed in Rev. John Smith's Life, Journals, and Correspondence of Pepys (1844), II. 317.
2d ed.; ‘2500 Acres.’
2d ed.; ‘reckoning two Acres.’
2d ed.; ‘by commerce?’
Lupton's ed., p. 58.
See note 2, p. 454.
On the significance of this apparent ascription of the London Observations to Petty, see Introduction, also an article by the editor in Polit. Sci. Quart. XI. 113, 131.
On the deficiencies of the London birth returns see Graunt, p. 361, also Introduction.
Graunt, p. 374.
Ib. p. 368.
Table A gives the births in 1672 at 987, table B at 967; these numbers are used for the averages respectively.
According to table C, the total burials in the enumerated parishes are 1000, not 1055, the total christenings are 585, not 550, while the total burials in the rest of the parishes are 789, not 634 and the total christenings are 422 not 457.
Graunt, p. 385.
Graunt had estimated 30,000 in 1662, see p. 399.
How entirely Petty's dispute about the Down Survey occupied his attention in 1659 is evident from his ignorance of the census which was taken in Dublin and elsewhere in that year. It gave the number of all the people in eleven parishes (Christ Chruch and Nicholas without omitted) at 8780. Gilbert, Calendar, IV. 571, also p. xiii. Mr Hardinge shews reason for believing that Petty had copies of the returns of that census for nearly the whole of Ireland. If he had, it is not likely that he secured them until after the writing of the Dublin Observations, as neither the Observations nor the Polit. Anat. mentions the census of 1659. See Hardinge, The earliest known MS. Census Returns of the People of Ireland, in Trans. R. I. Acad., vol. xxiv. antiquities, pp. 317–328.
The tables A, B, and C are printed, in the 1683 edition, upon sheets inserted after p. 8 of the pamphlet, so that “A Weekly Bill of Mortality for the City of Dublin,” here printed on p. 487, there follows immediately after the recommendation of it.
In the years 1674–75. It appears that Petty had suggested to Essex certain reforms in the collection of the hearth money, for the farm of which he was one of the bidders. Fitzmaurice, 169, Capel Letters, pp. 399–418.
Petty previously calculated 32000 inhabitants in Dublin. See p. 485.
- 's i pranderet olus patienter, regibus uti
- Nollet Aristippus.’ 's i sciret regibus uti,
- Fastidiret olus, qui me notat.’ Utrius horum
- Verba probes et facta doce vel junior audi,
- Cur sit Aristippi potior sententia.
Horace, Epistles, 1. 17, 13–17.
The story of the conversation between Aristippus and Diogenes is told by Diogenes Laertius.
The common notion at the time when Petty wrote appears to have been that Paris must be larger than London because the court of Louis XIV. was more splendid than that of Charles II. Petty was not the first who held London the larger, but he appears to have been the first who gave an adequate reason for his belief. Gregorio de Leti says that he himself had once believed Paris the more populous city, but ‘all the more general and infallible rules’ had shewn him the superiority of London. De Leti had unusual opportunities for observation, but his estimate of the actual population of the two cities is absurdly high. He appears to credit, somewhat grudgingly, the assertion of an (unidentified) French ambassador, who had told him that Paris contained a million and a half of people. And he is ‘forced to believe’ that in London there are not less than two million souls! Del teatro britannico (1683), p. 75. A more trustworthy account is given by Le Maire, the author of Paris ancien et nouveau, 1685. After quoting Giovanni Botero (1540–1617) on “Parigi città che di popolo & di abbondanza d'ognicosa avanza de gran lunga tutte l'altre di Christianità,” Le Maire gives the number of people and of houses in each of the sixteen quarters of La Ville de Paris—as in the case of London, an area smaller than that included in the bills of mortality–according to an enumeration made in 1684. The totals are 91,252 persons and 20,641 houses. Le Maire, pp. 5–15. The enumeration of 1684 is reprinted in Boislisle's Mémoire de la Généralité de Paris (in the Documents inédits), p. 422. A modern estimate gives 543,270 inhabitants to the Paris of 1684. Husson, Les Consommations de Paris (1856), p. 20.
In Paris there died 17,493 in 1682 and 17,764 in 1683, which, according to Petty's average of 19,887, would leave 24,404 deaths in the “very sickly” year 1684. In the first nine months of 1684, for which alone the official compilers of the Recherches statistiques could recover the figures, there died 18,737. The average mortality 1670–1675, 1678–1683 was 19,684. Recherches, II., tableau 53. The figures for 1676, 1677 and 1685–1687 are probably lost. They may perhaps be preserved in Grimperel's MS. in the Bibliothèque de l'Institut National de France (n° X. 214, 2 vols. in f°), which I have not seen.
Petty's informant concerning Bristol may have been Sir Robert Southwell, whose seat, King's Weston, was near that town, cf. p. 480, note on the Dublin Observations.
Six to seven is approximately the ratio between the burials of Paris alone and the burials of London.
See p. 511.
See p. 459, note 5.
“Les Modernes assurent qu'elle [la ville de Paris] a aujourd'huy environ cinquant mille Maisons.” Le grand dictionnaire historique ou le mélange curieux de l'histoire sacrée et profane. Seconde édition, revue par M. Louys Moreri. A. Lyon, M.D.C. LXXXI., vol. II. p. 823 b.
On Petty's attitude towards the law and lawyers see Fitzmaurice, 169–172.
A blank in both French and English editions.
The Paris bills entered the hospitals separately from the parishes in which they were situated. See p. 510.
Ferdinand Verbiest, S. J. (1625–1688) wrote Voyage de l'Empereur de la Chine dans la Tartarie; aux quelles on a joint une novelle découverte aux Mexique. Paris: chez E. Michellet; 1685, 12°. Verbiest's accounts were received with great interest in Europe. An English translation of them was included in A Relation of the Invasion and Conquest of Florida by the Spaniards, under the Command of Fernando de Soto. Written in Portuguese by a Gentleman of the Town of Elvas. Now Englished. To which is subjoyned Two Journeys of the present Emperour of China into Tartary in the Years 1682 and 1683. London: printed for John Lawrence, 1686 (licensed 7 June), 12°, and a translation was also published in the Philosophical Transactions, vol. xvi. no. 180, pp. 39–62. On Verbiest see R. H. Major's introduction to the Earl of Ellesmere's translation of P. J. d'Orleans's History of the two Tartar Conquerors of China, Hakluyt Soc., 1834, p. vii., also pp. 69–96, 103–131.
In Hale's Primitive Origination of Mankind, 213, citing Leo's History of Africa. Such figures were frequently printed in the 17th century, e.g. Purchas, Pilgrimes (1625), p. 833.
The source of this information is doubtless the Paris bills, which reported the deaths in each of the seventeen hospitals in the city and gave after 1671, a monthly État de l'hotel dieu, cf. Morand in Histoire de l'Académie Royale des Sciences, année 1771, pp. 832–842.
The table was not published.
In the Philosophical Transactions for July—September, 1686 (vol. XVI. no. 183, p. 152) appeared the following, unsigned:
“An Extract of two Essays in Political Arithmetick concerning the comparative Magnitudes, &c. of London and Paris by Sr. William Petty Knight, R S.S.
The excellent Author of these two Essays, has in several former of the same Nature made it appear that Mathematical Reasoning, is not only applicable to Lines and Numbers, but affords the best means of Judging in all the concerns of humane Life. In the present he endeavours to prove London, as it now is, the most considerable City now in being, by shewing it much to exceed Paris, (which not only the French but foreigners have asserted to be the chief City of Europe), both in People, Housing, and Wealth. The first by comparing the Bills of Mortality, whereby he finds that the People of London are as many as those of Paris and Rouen put together. The second by comparing the number of Houses, which by the Chimney-Books are found above 80000 in London, whereas a great Author among the French, (who seldome faile to magnifie their own things), reckons but 50000 Houses in Paris. As to the third, to wit the Wealth, he conceives that there is yet a much greater disposition, there being no comparison between them for Trade, and besides a good argument drawn from the Law-Suites of both places, he concludes from the Paris bills of Mortality, that two 5ths of the People of Paris are so poor that they chuse rather to die in Hospitals, than lie sick at their own Charges; and that a third of the whole People of that City, die out of the most wretched Hospitall of L'Hostel Dieu; wheras at London there dies scarce one in fiftie in our Hospitals. Hereupon in the second Essay, our Author extends his Charity to those poor wretches, shewing how by a reasonable expence, 3000 persons might be there saved per Annum, who die for want of good accomodation. The whole is so close writt, that it will not bear Epitomizing, wherefore I rather recommend it to the Curious who cannot but be satisfied therewith.”
According to Graunt's table (pp. 407–8), which was probably Petty's source of information, this assertion is far from correct. In the twenty-five years from 1604 to 1630 the burials exceeded the christenings in sixteen instances, or including the plague burials in nineteen instances.
As late as 1672 Graunt thought Paris more than one-fifth, but less than one-fourth larger than London (pp. 424). Petty, however, includes parishes which Graunt excluded (pp. 423, 457), and this may account for his transference to 1660 of the time when Paris exceeded London.
In 1665 97,306 died, but only 68,596 were returned of the plague.
“A Rome il meurt plus de 3000 personnes par an parce qu'il y a plus de cent mil ames. l'année passée il y en avoit 119825 sans les Juifs qui sont pres de trent milles. On meurt moins a Rome parce qu'il n'y a pas d'enfants a proportion des autres Villes, et bien des gens y vienent demurer ayant passé le temps auquel on meurt d'advantage. la sobriete et le soin qu'on a de la sante fait qu'on y meurt moins qu'en une Ville ou on est debauché.”…… Extract from a letter of II. Justel to the Royal Society, read 27 October, 1686; Royal Society's Letter Book, vol. x., p. 26.
14716 should be 14717.